Beating the Steelers is a Must for the Vikings' Shrinking Playoff Odds

It would be an understatement to say there's a lot on the line for the Vikings as they take on the Steelers tonight in front of a national audience.

From a big-picture perspective, Mike Zimmer might need a win in this game to keep his job. His seat is hotter than it has ever been following last week's catastrophic loss to the previously-winless Lions, and a loss at home this evening — particularly if the Vikings finally lose a game by more than eight points — could be the final blow.

But although the Vikings might be close to firing their longtime head coach, they're also just a game behind Washington and the 49ers for one of the final playoff spots in the NFC. There's a scenario where the Vikings beat the Steelers, Washington and San Francisco lose on Sunday (to the Cowboys and Bengals, respectively), and the Vikings end up in a playoff spot heading into next week. In that situation, five or six teams would be tied at 6-7, and I believe the Vikings would be ahead of the 49ers for the No. 7 seed based on their record in common games.

That's not particularly important right now, but it just illustrates that the Vikings are far from out of the race heading into their final five games.

Still, it's going to take an impressive final month. The Vikings' playoff odds, depending on which model you look at, are sitting at 26 percent (ESPN FPI), 28 percent (FiveThirtyEight), or 36 percent (DVOA, which is high on the Vikings).

Using FiveThirtyEight's model, we can see that the Vikings' projected chances go up to 36 percent with a victory against the Steelers, and drop to 13 percent with a loss. That's a major swing.

A win gets the Vikings to 6-7 and restores some positive momentum heading into a winnable Monday Night Football matchup against the Bears 11 days from now. A loss sends Minnesota careening to 5-8 and potentially gets Zimmer canned.

Given the sorry state of the NFC wild card teams, it's possible 8-9 could be enough for a playoff spot this year. But to be safe, you have to get to 9-8. And if the Vikings lose tonight, that would be mean winning out against the Bears (at Soldier Field), the Rams, the Packers (at Lambeau Field), and the Bears again. That's a tough task. With a victory tonight, a 3-1 record down the stretch would almost certainly get the Vikings in, while a 2-2 record could even potentially do it.

Again: there's a lot on the line tonight at U.S. Bank Stadium.

"Obviously our backs are to the wall, but they’ve been back against the wall for a while," Zimmer said after the loss to the Lions.

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