Better Vikings QB, Daunte Culpepper or Kirk Cousins? The Choice is Clear
A seemingly harmless graphic has sparked an impassioned debate on Vikings Twitter.
Earlier this month, PFF NFL Show hosts Sam Monson and Steve Palazzolo added one retired franchise legend to every NFL team's current roster, using these guidelines:
- You were adding a theoretical version of the great player in his prime.
- Early-era players were presumed to be transported into the modern era, complete with the benefit of nutrition, strength and conditioning training and so on.
- The player had to have played the majority — or at least a recognizable portion — of his career for the relevant team.
Monson's pick for the Vikings, considering all of the potential options, was a surprising one: QB Daunte Culpepper.
Here's his explanation:
The Vikings are swimming with elite choices to add to the current roster. Randy Moss? Carl Eller? Alan Page? John Randle? Chris Doleman? Throw a dart at the team’s Ring of Honor, and you’d likely select an outstanding addition. But with the team having finally put an end date on the Kirk Cousins era, they need a new quarterback.
Daunte Culpepper would be even better in 2023 than he was during his time, as the league knows how to maximize his athletic gifts better than it did when he was playing. Culpepper was a 260-pound quarterback who could run over linebackers in the open field, but employing a quarterback as a major part of the designed run game wasn’t the done thing in the early 2000s. Despite that, he rushed for more than 600 yards and 10 touchdowns in one year. In today’s NFL, he would be lethal, even without Moss on the other end of his deep ball.
Although it appeared on a podcast and in an article, the controversy really took off on social media when PFF's account tweeted out the NFC North picks on Sunday.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the discussion quickly shifted from 'Who would you pick for the Vikings in this hypothetical exercise?' to a straight-up debate over Culpepper and Cousins and which one ranks higher in the pantheon of all-time Vikings quarterbacks.
Let's get one thing out of the way: I slightly disagree with Monson's pick here, although I understand his logic. Even when considering that quarterback is the most important position in football, I think Cousins is good enough that I'd rather use the upgrade somewhere else. I would probably go with Randy Moss and pair him with Justin Jefferson to create the greatest WR duo in NFL history. Adding John Randle or Alan Page to the middle of the 2023 Vikings' defense would also be tempting.
But to push back on the Culpepper pick by saying that he'd be a downgrade at quarterback? Stop it. That's absurd, quite frankly. When adjusting for era, peak Culpepper was very clearly better than Cousins has been for the Vikings. If you transported Culpepper into 2023, giving him modern training and letting him benefit from the way offenses have evolved over the past 20 years, he'd be a significant upgrade over Cousins. I'm honestly a bit surprised there's even a debate about that.
Culpepper was ahead of his time as a dual threat quarterback with a massive arm. He led the league in passing touchdowns in his first season as a starter (2000), then led the league in yards and completions in 2004, his finest season. Culpepper also ran for over 400 yards every year, with 28 total rushing touchdowns, in his peak five-year run from 2000-04, including 609 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns in 2002. Again, that was in an era where quarterbacks weren't used in the running game nearly as much as they are today.
Culpepper was a 6'4", 260-pound quarterback with 4.5 speed and a perfect 10 Relative Athletic Score. He was Cam Newton and Josh Allen and Anthony Richardson before any of those guys came around. Imagine him being used like Allen or Jalen Hurts in today's NFL.
If you just look at the raw passing numbers, Cousins comes out on top against Culpepper. But that's a highly flawed way of comparing any two players from different times, particularly quarterbacks. You simply have to adjust for era, given how much passing has exploded in the last decade-plus. And when you do that, it becomes clear that Culpepper was better — compared to his peers — than Cousins has been with the Vikings.
Culpepper had three seasons of Adjusted DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) better than Cousins' best season in Minnesota.
Culpepper was one of the best quarterbacks in the league during his peak run. From 2000 to 2004, he ranked fourth in EPA (Expected Points Added) per play among QBs with at least 1,000 plays in that span. That has never been the case with Cousins, who ranks 22nd in EPA per play among QBs with at least 1,000 plays from 2018 to 2022.
Era-adjusted Elo also shows that Culpepper was clearly better, using full career stats for both players:
Even when just focusing on throwing the football, Culpepper has a strong argument.
- From 2000 to 2004, Culpepper ranked fifth among all QBs with at least 32 starts in ANY/A (Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt, an efficiency stat that factors in sacks, TD, and INTs) at 6.49. That was 0.02 behind Rich Gannon in third place and 0.70 behind Peyton Manning in first.
- From 2018 to 2022, Cousins ranked eighth among all QBs with at least 32 starts in ANY/A at 6.94 (a defense-adjusted stat, not one adjusted for era). That's 1.22 behind Drew Brees in first place.
Then you factor in the rushing production, and it becomes hard to make a case for Cousins as the better Vikings quarterback, relative to his era.
Both benefited from the presence of all-time great wide receivers (Randy Moss for Culpepper, Justin Jefferson for Cousins). Cousins has the better winning percentage, but he arguably had more optimal overall circumstances around him, from ownership — Red McCombs vs. the Wilf family is a big difference! — to coaching to roster talent.
Culpepper had more issues with turning the ball over than Cousins does. He also struggled with consistency. But at his peak, he was far more efficient and effective in his era than Cousins has been in his.
(While we're adjusting for eras, one last note: Fran Tarkenton is the greatest quarterback in Vikings history.)
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