Does a Kirk Cousins For Trey Lance Trade Make Sense For the Vikings and 49ers?
Another promising 49ers season came to an end this weekend because of an issue that has plagued them for much of the Kyle Shanahan era: Quarterback injuries.
During Sunday's 31-7 loss to the Eagles in the NFC championship game, Brock Purdy and Josh Johnson became the third and fourth San Francisco signal-callers to get hurt this season. Purdy injured his elbow early in the game and Johnson suffered a concussion, which resulted in Purdy trying to mount a comeback without being able to throw the football; it was revealed the next day that he had torn his UCL.
Purdy, who went from Mr. Irrelevant to undefeated rookie sensation, was only playing because Trey Lance broke his ankle in Week 2 and Jimmy Garoppolo injured his foot in Week 13.
This has been a problem for years. Both Lance and Garoppolo dealt with injuries in 2021, Garoppolo was seriously hurt in both 2018 and 2020, and even previous backups like C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens missed time in earlier seasons.
Suddenly, the 49ers' future at quarterback is up in the air. Purdy appeared to earn the 2023 starting job, but he has at least a six-month recovery ahead of him. Lance has made four starts in two years since SF traded up to pick him third overall in '21. Garoppolo is a free agent.
Let the Kirk Cousins speculation begin anew.
Shanahan's well-known fondness for Cousins — the two were together in Washington for two years and Shanahan apparently wanted Cousins to join him with the Niners back in 2017 — has made a potential trade an easy topic of discussion for a few years now. What makes it even more interesting this time is the 49ers' wide-open championship window and the stability Cousins' incredible durability could provide.
The logical player who would come back to the Vikings in a Cousins trade is Lance, a Minnesota native with intriguing potential despite a slow start to his career.
Would a Vikings-49ers trade centered around Cousins and Lance — with other assets likely involved — make sense for both teams? Let's explore.
Why the 49ers say yes
It's not crazy to suggest that Cousins' presence on this 49ers team would have them entering the upcoming Super Bowl as favorites over the Chiefs. They had the best defense in the NFL this season by every major statistic, featuring impressive depth and a trio of first team All-Pros in Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and Talanoa Hufanga. Their offense has star power all over the place with Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and others. It's a roster that is absolutely right there with the Eagles and Chiefs, talent-wise.
Shanahan coached one of the league's most efficient offenses and won 15 games (including playoffs) with a combination of Lance, Garoppolo, and Purdy at quarterback. Imagine what he could do with Cousins, a highly-accurate QB generally considered to fall into the top 10-15 range at the position — a clear step up from Garoppolo.
Just as important as Cousins' talent is his durability. He has never missed a game due to injury in eight years as a starter in the NFL. Cousins took more hits than any other quarterback this year and never came close to missing any time. He takes care of his body extremely well in the offseason and knows how to avoid dangerous hits on the field.
Cousins has his warts, but he would bring accuracy, stability, and toughness to the 49ers' offense. He's obviously enjoyed playing with Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and Stefon Diggs in Minnesota, but it feels like a safe bet that he would put up career numbers in Shanahan's offense with SF's weapons and offensive line.
Yes, Cousins comes with a big contract and costs the 49ers Lance in this scenario. But rather than waiting to see what Lance becomes or pinning their hopes on Purdy, it could make a lot of sense for the 49ers to go all-in with Cousins, even if it's just for the 2023 season.
Why the Vikings say yes
At some point, the Vikings need to prepare for life after Cousins, who turns 35 this year. His five seasons in Minnesota have shown that he's a talented quarterback who can put up big numbers, but they've also proven that he isn't close to the elite tier at the position. Cousins won more games than ever this season with Kevin O'Connell as his coach and displayed a willingness to trust his playmakers more down the field, but his conservative tendencies reared their ugly head on his fourth down checkdown that ended the Vikings' season.
The bigger conundrum with Cousins is his contract. Since signing a fully guaranteed three-year, $84 million deal in 2018, he's inked two short-term extensions to keep him with the Vikings. In 2023, the final year of his current deal, his cap hit is $36.25 million. Paying a quarterback that much makes it difficult to fill out the rest of the roster around him unless you consistently hit on draft picks, which the Vikings haven't done. There's also the issue of upcoming extensions for Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson and Christian Darrisaw and how they'd fit alongside another Cousins contract.
Acquiring Lance would be an upside play for GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. The Marshall, MN native and former NDSU star wasn't picked third overall two years ago for no reason. His athletic tools and arm talent give him a lot of potential, even two years removed from being drafted. The hype around Lance has died down for obvious reasons, but four regular season games and 263 total snaps shouldn't be enough to change his outlook all that much. There's still a chance he breaks out in his third year. If the Vikings did this deal, they'd be banking on that happening.
Trading Cousins for Lance would clear up cap space both in 2023 and beyond, allowing the Vikings to build up their roster, especially on the defensive side of the ball. They'd have a young, high-upside player who theoretically fits the modern QB mold as someone who can make plays in the pocket and also create outside of structure with his athleticism. And even though Lance was drafted two years ago, he still has two more years on his rookie contract, plus the fifth-year option.
Going from Cousins to Lance could mean taking a step back in 2023 — particularly if the Vikings move on from several other high-priced veterans this offseason — but maybe that's a necessary step. Instead of running it back with Cousins this year, the Vikings would be turning their focus towards reaching a higher ceiling in 2024.
Why the 49ers say no
The same reasons why the Vikings would consider trading Cousins could give San Francisco pause when it comes to acquiring him. He's a good, sometimes great, sometimes maddening 35-year-old quarterback with a massive contract that expires after this season. The 49ers already have a bunch of players with expensive deals — Williams, Arik Armstead, Warner, Kittle, Bosa, and Charvarius Ward all have cap hits above $16 million in '23. That salary picture gets significantly more complicated when you go from a rookie contract QB to Cousins' albatross cap number.
The 49ers would also have to ask themselves if they really need Cousins. In Shanahan's system, Garoppolo reached the Super Bowl in 2019 and another NFC title game in 2021. Purdy, a seventh-round rookie, took over this season and won his first eight games before getting hurt in Philadelphia. That seems like compelling evidence that Shanahan can win without spending big money on someone like Cousins.
The injury situation complicates things, but early reports are that Purdy needs a UCL repair and not a full reconstruction (i.e. Tommy John surgery). If that's the case, he could be ready by Week 1. Lance is expected to recover from his ankle injury in time for offseason activities. The 49ers could roll with a combination of Purdy, Lance, and another late-round draft pick (perhaps someone like Max Duggan or Stetson Bennett) as they head into next season, giving them some depth if injuries strike again.
Why the Vikings say no
In O'Connell's first season, the Vikings went 13-4, won the NFC North, and hosted a playoff game. Their advanced metrics were poor and they ultimately lost to a mediocre Giants team in the first round, but the No. 1 culprit for that was a truly abysmal defense. With even a league-average defense, they likely beat the Giants and make it to the divisional round for the second time in the last four seasons with Cousins.
Cousins isn't perfect, but he took real steps forward in 2022. As mentioned earlier, he shed some of his robotic nature and trusted players like Jefferson and Hockenson to make plays in contested situations. He led the league in fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives, stepping up time and time again in clutch situations. Cousins' presence is a big reason why Jefferson has set the NFL on fire over the last three seasons.
Trading Cousins for Lance would be risky. Lance has dealt with injuries in both of his NFL seasons and remains a work in progress as a quarterback. If he doesn't pan out, the Vikings could get much worse. Would Jefferson be willing to wait out a rebuild or would he start to get antsy about wanting to be moved to a contender?
The reality of the Vikings' situation is that it'll be difficult for them to find someone better than Cousins. That's why they've stuck with him in recent years, and it could be why they choose to move forward with him and hope he continues to take strides as he masters O'Connell's offense. Cousins turns 35 this year, but he wasn't a full-time starter until he was 27 and his obsessive focus on taking care of his body could help him play at a high level into his late 30s.
With major improvements on defense and some added help at interior offensive line and wide receiver, the Vikings could be even better with Cousins next year. It won't be easy to manage the financial aspect of things, but that's Adofo-Mensah's job.
The decision comes down to whether or not the Vikings believe they can win a Super Bowl with Cousins under the right circumstances — and how realistic it is to put those circumstances in place quickly.
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