How Can Ed Donatell's Vikings Defense Improve and Stop Bleeding Yardage?
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Only one team in the NFL, the 4-7 Detroit Lions, has allowed more yards per game than the Minnesota Vikings this season.
The Vikings have surrendered an average of 390.7 total yards in their 11 contests. They've given up 276.1 passing yards per game, which leads the league. They've allowed over 300 passing yards in six of 11 games, including 382 to struggling Patriots quarterback Mac Jones in their last outing.
And yet, somehow, they're 9-2 and can clinch the NFC North on Sunday.
There are plenty of reasons why the Vikings have had success in spite of a defense that has bled yardage. For starters, they've won on the slimmest of margins, with eight of their nine victories coming by eight points or fewer. The offense, with first-year head coach Kevin O'Connell at the helm, has shined in some weeks and consistently delivered in big moments. The special teams phase has also come up with game-changing plays.
Finally, there's a lot more to evaluating a defense than looking at total yardage. The Vikings' defense has come up with an impressive numbers of big plays, ranking sixth in the league with 18 takeaways and 14th with 29 sacks. And they've frequently been a bend-don't-break unit that steps up on third and fourth down and in the red zone. The Patriots, for example, went 3 for 10 on third down, 0 for 1 on fourth down, and were held to field goals all three times they entered the red zone.
"In today’s world, there’s so many ways to measure things," defensive coordinator Ed Donatell said on Thursday. "Yards never won or lost a game. The team with more yards usually loses the game — I mean, or it’s close to 50-50. But it’s a way they measure. Stats are fun, man. When you’re real high on something, (you say) ‘Oh, that looks good’ and it makes you feel good. Just going in to examine one area really seldom tells the story."
Fact check: Teams are 119-60-1 this season when they win the yardage battle, and 52-13-1 when they win it by 100 yards or more. Yards typically have a pretty strong correlation with points and overall success.
But Donatell's right that they don't tell they the entire story. The Vikings' ability to create big plays on defense and stiffen in crucial moments is why they're 16th in opponent EPA per play, 21st in points allowed per game, and 23rd in defensive DVOA. Those aren't spectacular rankings — no one is suggesting the Vikings have been great on defense this season — but they're a little better than 31st.
"Really, what our team’s been great at is navigating the nuances to finish ballgames, and we’re doing it as a team," Donatell said. "And to say what’s working or what isn’t, we’re kind of doing what we need to do to win each week."
Donatell noted that things like a garbage time drive by the Dolphins and an overtime game in Buffalo have contributed to the ugly yardage totals.
"You can’t focus on that because that isn’t going to help you win or lose," he said. "You want to talk about what you did to help yourself win: turning the ball over at critical moments, having great coverage and rush at critical moments, the offense and defense playing together at critical moments. That’s how you’re going to find winning. I’ve been on the other end, I’ve been top five and ten (in yardage) and you don’t have the Ws. And you’re saying ‘Well, if we just did these couple plays...' We’re doing those couple plays (this season). We want to focus on how to keep doing them."
The Vikings being 8-0 in one-score games this season is remarkable, but it isn't totally random or lucky. Through their seven-game winning streak and then in their bounce-back win over New England, they've found ways to play complementary football and be at their best when their best is required, as O'Connell likes to say.
"I think it’s our whole building and what we’ve built here," Donatell said. "There’s a belief, and in that belief comes trust in those moments. You can see it in all phases. Credit Kevin, credit all of our people, our veteran players. That’s really the intangible you’re looking at. This team plays with confidence and stays in ballgames when they get down a little bit."
Donatell, 65, has been coaching in the NFL since 1990. He's in his 12th season as a defensive coordinator, having previously held that role with four other teams. For the past decade, he was Vic Fangio's right-hand man as the two developed a defensive scheme that has spread across the league in recent years.
O'Connell hired Donatell this offseason because he knew firsthand how tough that type of defense was to go against. It's a scheme that uses two high safeties on nearly every play and disguises its intentions by rotating into different looks after the ball is snapped. The goal is to use varied zone coverage looks that all start out looking similar, which muddies things up for the quarterback and makes them process a lot post-snap. It's also intended to put a roof on the top of the defense, limiting explosive plays and forcing teams to sustain long drives to score.
For whatever reason, it hasn't been particularly successful in Minnesota this season. Whether the scheme isn't working or the players aren't executing it well enough, the Vikings have sat back in zone and gotten shredded through the air.
"We’ve got 11 games of inventory now," O'Connell said this week. "I think we’re to the point in the season where you’ve really got to take a long look at what you put on tape schematically, tendencies. How can we maybe tweak or adjust our schemes to take advantage of some of the things we’ve put on tape and maybe things people are game-planning against us, while still staying true to who we want to be at our core and really trying to put some of our playmakers in positions to have critical impacts in the games on those critical downs."
Donatell noted that the Vikings have had some players out of the lineup, which has caused them to adjust a little bit. They'll have Dalvin Tomlinson and Akayleb Evans back against the Jets on Sunday and should get Cameron Dantzler back soon as well, which will help.
But with six games remaining until the playoffs, the Vikings may need to consider making changes to their defensive approach. The excuse that it takes time for players to transition from Mike Zimmer's 4-3 scheme to Donatell's 3-4 is no longer valid now that December has arrived. This defense needs to start playing better football and limiting yards if the Vikings are going to make a deep run in the postseason.
"We’re always continuing to try to find ways of limiting some of the yardage, play a little more consistent throughout individual drives to try to stop those drives before they get into scoring position or generate any explosive plays," O'Connell said. "We do look at (statistics) and try to make adjustments, both personnel-wise and schematics, but in the end, being 9-2 is what matters ultimately to the guys in this building."
An obvious potential change would be to utilize more designed pressures. The Vikings rank 26th in blitz percentage this season, according to Pro Football Reference, and have usually been content to rush four. That puts a lot of pressure on players like Za'Darius Smith, Danielle Hunter, and Tomlinson to dominate up front. Instead of sitting back, why not send more blitzes and try to force quarterbacks into mistakes? It worked late in the Patriots game, as Donatell sent some well-timed pressures that led to rushed throws or sacks.
Deploying more man coverage would be another option to shake things up.
"We’ve given up some big plays the last couple weeks (and) that’s not customary to the way we play," Donatell said. "We want to cut those down."
The final six regular season games are going to be very interesting for the Vikings' defense. The quarterbacks they're set to face — Mike White, Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers, and Justin Fields — are largely unimpressive. If they don't start to show some improvement, it'll be difficult to have much faith as they enter a postseason where they'll have to get through teams like the Eagles, Cowboys, and 49ers to reach the Super Bowl.
Yards don't tell the full story. But at some point, winning close game after close game and playing bend-don't-break defense isn't sustainable. Donatell's unit needs to play better, and he knows that.
With December football about to get underway, there's no time like the present.
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