It All Comes Down to Turnover Margin For the 2023 Vikings
Everything seems to come down to turnover margin for these 2023 Vikings.
In the five games this season when they've had either a neutral (twice) or positive (three times) turnover differential, they're 5-0. In the six games where they've had a negative differential, they're 1-5, with the lone victory coming over the Panthers on a day when the Vikings scored a key defensive touchdown.
All five of the Vikings' losses — and five of their six wins — have come by one score. Incredibly, Sunday night's one-point loss against the Broncos was the third instance this year where the Vikings have had a -3 turnover differential and still lost by just one score. It also happened against the Buccaneers and Eagles in the first two weeks of the season.
This is a Minnesota team that could easily be 8-3 or so without the turnover woes.
"We lost that turnover battle, and it should be something that we’re going to talk about, we have talked about, and clearly, it’s a winning and losing stat in this league," Kevin O'Connell said after Sunday night's game. "No matter what you do every other play in the game, you’re just setting yourself behind and have to overcome even if you do have the lead. As you manage your way through the football game with those turnovers, you’re missing out on opportunities, you’re missing out on more time of possession, you’re missing out on chances for three (points) even if you don’t finish in the red zone with touchdowns."
The Vikings' 20 giveaways this season are tied for third-most in the NFL. A lot of them, like Alexander Mattison's critical fumble in the third quarter against the Broncos, have been straightforward ones. Others, like Josh Dobbs fumbling on a play where Kareem Jackson should've been penalized for an illegal hit, have been unfortunate.
If it seems like unluckiness has played a role in this Vikings season, the data backs that up. According to NFL data scientist Tom Bliss, the Vikings are dead last in net win probability added by luck this year by a wide margin. They're 32nd in WPA due to opponent drops and total fumble recoveries, and they're also in the bottom three in WPA due to opponent dropped interceptions and opponents' kicking games.
Essentially, what that data shows is that Vikings opponents have rarely dropped passes on offense or interceptions on defense, have made kicks at a higher rate than expected, and have recovered fumbles by either team at a higher rate than expected. At some point, you'd expect that luck to swing back in the Vikings' favor.
There are a lot of nuanced things to discuss and critique with this Vikings team, from play-calling to scheme to execution across the board. But the simplest formula for them to win games is to hold onto the football on offense and take it away on defense.
"We’ve learned this lesson before," O'Connell said. "Playing good football teams, you can’t give them three extra opportunities. "We’ll have to continue to stress the importance of ball security and that’s what we’re going to do."
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