Minnesota Vikings 2023 NFL Draft Preview: Expect the Unexpected This Week
When it comes to what the Minnesota Vikings will do this week during the 2023 NFL Draft, the only thing we can count on is that nobody really knows what's going to happen — including the decision-makers themselves. In other words, it's time to expect the unexpected.
This is a fascinating week for the future of the Vikings, who are in their second year under the stewardship of general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O'Connell. It's a franchise that appears to be at an inflection point after the new regime essentially "ran it back" in year one, an approach that yielded mixed results. The Vikings rejuvenated their fan base with a thrilling 13-win season, but a negative point differential and an early postseason exit against a mediocre Giants team were reminders of how far Minnesota remains from true title contention.
Year two feels like the year where Adofo-Mensah and O'Connell will really begin to shape things in their vision. There was some of that in March, as they moved on from veteran mainstays like Adam Thielen and Eric Kendricks and brought in a free agent class headlined by Byron Murphy, Marcus Davenport, and Josh Oliver. Earlier in the offseason, hiring Brian Flores as O'Connell's new defensive coordinator was a major move. But this week, draft week, is when the new regime has a chance to really make a splash.
The biggest Vikings storyline heading into draft weekend is the possibility of the team selecting its quarterback of the future in the first round. With Kirk Cousins under contract for just one more season, Minnesota could be an excellent fit for one of the top rookie QBs in this draft class. That player would get a year to develop under Cousins and receive coaching from O'Connell, Wes Phillips and the rest of the Vikings' offensive staff. Then, in 2024, assuming the team is satisfied with the young quarterback's development, they'd take the reins of an offense featuring all-world receiver Justin Jefferson and other key pieces like T.J. Hockenson, Christian Darrisaw, and Brian O'Neill.
Given that the Vikings hold the 23rd pick, they'd have to aggressively move up to land one of the top four quarterbacks: Bryce Young (who is likely headed to the Panthers with the first overall pick), C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, and Anthony Richardson. Hendon Hooker could be in play if the Vikings stand pat at 23. If they go in a different direction with their top pick, they could still take a flier on a QB in the middle or late rounds, with players like Jake Haener, Jaren Hall, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson standing out as notable options.
The idea of the Vikings drafting Cousins' successor with their top pick may have seemed like nothing more than an unlikely hypothetical a few months ago, but there's real steam behind it as Thursday night draws closer and closer. The Vikings chose not to extend Cousins' contract for a second consecutive year, they met with Richardson and Levis at the scouting combine, and there's real buzz that they've done a ton of homework on this year's crop of passers. "The Vikings have done extensive work on this year's quarterback class, and while they have a number of areas they could address in the first round, it's believed they'd take a QB in the first round if the right one is available," the Star Tribune's Ben Goessling wrote recently.
Wide receiver (+180) and cornerback (+210) are still the betting favorites to be the Vikings' first drafted position, according to BetOnline. They could use a long-term running mate for Jefferson at wideout after Thielen's release, and they've still got an urgent need at cornerback even after signing Murphy. But quarterback isn't far behind those two at +400, followed by defensive lineman at +500 with a big drop-off after those four.
What makes this draft so compelling for the Vikings is that they could realistically go in any number of directions. They only have five selections right now, but they could dip into future years to take a huge swing and move up as high as the second or third overall pick for a quarterback. The price would become more palatable if someone like Richardson were to fall a bit, but waiting is risky if the Vikings have a quarterback they really want. There's the Liam Coen-O'Connell connection with Levis, who is looking less and less likely to slide out of the top four picks. Stroud, once seen as the likely No. 1 pick, is a potential dark horse to fall after his poor score on the S2 cognition test. Adofo-Mensah made a league-high six trades during his first draft a year ago, including a move from 12 back to 32. What if his big move this year is a trade up for the team's QB of the future?
The Vikings could, of course, stand pat at 23 and take the top prospect on their board. That could be Hooker, the ultra-talented Tennessee QB whose age, ACL injury, and lack of experience in a pro-style offense are concerns. It could be a cornerback like Deonte Banks or Joey Porter Jr. or Emmanuel Forbes for Flores' defense — or Brian Branch, the do-it-all DB from Alabama. It could be a wide receiver like Jordan Addison or Quentin Johnston or Zay Flowers to pair with Jefferson. It could even be a defensive lineman like Calijah Kancey or Bryan Bresee or Myles Murphy — or a player no one will have seen coming at all.
Trading back for the second consecutive year is another option that is very much on the table. Adofo-Mensah showed last year that he, like Rick Spielman before him, believes value can be found by moving back and having more shots to shoot. And with just five picks in this draft, one imagines that Adofo-Mensah will move back at some point during the weekend in order to add to that number. However, he made it clear earlier this month that the draft is about much more than quantity.
"To me, it’s not necessarily about the number of picks," Adofo-Mensah said on April 13. "It’s about the impact of those picks that you have. So if you can find an impact player with your first pick or whatever, you don’t have to trade back to get two players who might not add up to that same impact."
If the Vikings do move back, either to the bottom of the first round or out of it entirely, that would open up a new list of prospects they could conceivably take with their top pick. Drafting is more about identifying talent than addressing needs, but logic suggests the Vikings are likely to take a receiver, a corner, a quarterback and a defensive lineman at some point across the seven rounds, with linebacker and safety also in the mix. Running back, offensive line, and tight end could all be addressed in the later rounds, too (those are all of the positions, I know).
Then there's the intrigue of the Vikings having three star players on their roster whose futures are uncertain for contract reasons: Dalvin Cook, Za'Darius Smith, and Danielle Hunter. Will something happen with any member of that trio during the draft? That's another storyline to keep in mind.
Across the entire NFL, this feels like one of the more unpredictable drafts in recent memory. That's especially true when it comes to the Vikings and the second draft of the Adofo-Mensah/O'Connell era. No matter what you think will happen, there's a good chance it'll be something entirely different.
Buckle up, Vikings fans. The draft is almost here.
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