NFC North Draft Recaps: What Are the Packers Doing?
As InsideTheVikings continues to analyze and react to the 2020 NFL Draft, it's time to take a look at what the three other teams in the NFC North accomplished last weekend. We start with the reigning champion Green Bay Packers, who took a...puzzling approach to the draft, to say the least.
The Packers' 2020 draft class:
- Round 1, Pick 26: Jordan Love, QB, Utah State (consensus big board rank: 35)
- Round 2, Pick 62: AJ Dillon, RB, Boston College (113)
- Round 3, Pick 94: Josiah Deguara, FB/TE, Cincinnati (161)
- Round 5, Pick 175: Kamal Martin, LB, Minnesota (249)
- Round 6, Pick 192: Jon Runyan, G, Michigan (238)
- Pound 6, Pick 208: Jake Hanson, C, Oregon (221)
- Round 6, Pick 209: Simon Stepaniak, G, Indiana (NR – outside of top 300)
- Round 7, Pick 236: Vernon Scott, S, TCU (NR – outside of top 300)
- Round 7, Pick 242: Jonathan Garvin, EDGE, Miami (170)
The Packers won 13 games last season to claim the NFC North crown for the first time in three years, then defeated the Seahawks in the divisional round of the playoffs to advance to the NFC title game. They were one of the last four teams standing and are likely to remain a championship contender for as long as Aaron Rodgers is still Aaron Rodgers.
That context makes their approach to the 2020 NFL Draft extremely perplexing.
With their first-round pick, the Packers did nothing to make their team better in 2020 as they look to get over the hump in a loaded NFC. To follow that up, GM Brian Gutekunst reached twice on Day 2 for players whose value in the modern NFL is questionable. The confusing decisions continued on Saturday with a few more reaches, including the selections of multiple players with injury concerns. The Packers didn't spend a single one of their nine picks on their biggest need, wide receiver, in a draft that saw 37 receivers taken.
Draft classes can't truly be judged for several years, so it's possible we'll look back at some point down the road and Gutekunst will look like a visionary. However, that seems highly unlikely. There's a reason why the Packers received the worst consensus draft grade of any team in the NFL by a wide margin. The logic behind their approach – combined with the players they selected at specific positions – just doesn't make much sense.
I can at least see the plan when it comes to taking Love in the first round, even if it's not ideal that they had to surrender their fourth-rounder to trade up for him. The Packers had great success with the same approach when they took Rodgers in 2005 despite the fact that Brett Favre was still playing at a high level. Love has as much arm talent as any quarterback in this draft, not to mention a prototypical frame and decent movement ability. He can make incredible throws when things go off-script in a way that draws comparisons to players like Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes.
The issue is that Love has a lot more flaws as a prospect than Rodgers or Mahomes did. He threw 17 interceptions last season, which creates serious doubts about his ability to go through progressions and make good decisions at the NFL level. Also, one of the main reasons to take a QB in the first round is to build around them while they're on their rookie contract. Rodgers is signed to a lucrative deal through the 2023 season, so it's unlikely Love starts a game in Green Bay for several years. That is, unless Rodgers is fed up enough by this pick to request a trade, which Favre recently suggested is a possibility.
With their two picks on Friday night – a bruising running back in Dillon and a fullback/H-back/tight end hybrid in Deguara – the Packers appear to be moving towards the run-heavy offensive approach that head coach Matt LaFleur prefers. That strategy is questionable at best when considering analytics, the direction of today's NFL, and the presence of Rodgers and Davante Adams on the roster. If LaFleur wants to try to emulate the formula used by the Titans and 49ers last year, that's his prerogative. Taking a running back gives Packers flexibility going forward with both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams entering the final years of their contracts. But this was another pick that doesn't make the team better next year.
As for the specific running back they selected – why Dillon? He was highly productive at BC, but the 247-pounder has a ton of mileage on his legs and offers very little as a receiver. Dillon would've been available in the third round, if not later, making this a head-scratching pick from a value perspective. The Deguara selection was another major reach according to the consensus board. He has some upside, but the Packers already have Jace Sternberger and Marcedes Lewis on the roster at tight end. Why not take a receiver or a linebacker in the third round?
The Packers took Martin, a downhill linebacker with minimal coverage range, to open up day three, and then drafted three straight interior offensive linemen. Both Martin and Stepaniak are dealing with injuries that create some concern about durability.
All in all, this was a bewildering draft from a team that presumably would like to get another Super Bowl appearance out of one of the greatest QBs of all time. The Packers did virtually nothing to help Rodgers in 2020 and appear content to enter the season with Allen Lazard and Devin Funchess as their secondary receivers behind Adams. They over-drafted a running back who isn't a receiving threat. They also waited to address the linebacker position and wound up with an uninspiring choice in Martin.
This draft from the Packers is hard to understand, but if Love continues the nearly 30-year run of success Green Bay has had at quarterback, it will likely all be forgiven.
Best pick: Love
I wanted to go with Garvin here; he's a pass-rusher with some legitimately intriguing athletic traits who I was very surprised to see fall as far as he did. But choosing a late seventh-rounder would feel like a cop-out. Love's upside is fascinating, and if Rodgers embraces the mentor role like Favre never did, he'll have a heck of a learning environment.
Worst pick: Dillon
I just don't understand this one. Dillon doesn't have the all-around skillset of a feature back in the modern NFL. If the Packers just wanted a change-of-pace back to complement Jones, they could've found that much later in the draft.
Overall grade: D-
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