NFC Playoff Picture: Minnesota Vikings Paths to the Postseason, Tiebreaker Scenarios
The Vikings' loss to the Rams on Sunday dealt a major blow to their playoff chances, but they're not dead yet. Projection sites give the Vikings somewhere between a 13 percent (FiveThirtyEight) and 19 percent (DVOA) chance to reach the postseason with two weeks to go.
In all likelihood, it'll require the Vikings to win out, which means upsetting the 12-3 Packers in Green Bay on Sunday and then taking care of business at home against the 5-10 Bears in the regular season finale.
Let's go over some of the Vikings' paths to get in and the tiebreakers to be aware of. First, here are the current standings. Washington, the 49ers, and the Saints losing this past weekend helped slightly mitigate the damage of the Vikings' loss, although the Eagles rallied from a slow start against the Giants to win.
If the Vikings win out, FiveThirtyEight gives them a 65 percent chance to get into the playoffs, before you mess with any other results. If they lose a single game, their chances are below 5 percent (again, independent of other results). So it's possible for the Vikings to get in at 8-9, but it would take a miracle.
Realistically, the Vikings must find a way to win at frigid Lambeau Field on Sunday, beat the Bears to finish off a 4-0 season against their two primary rivals, and end up 9-8 on the year. If that happens, they'll just need a little bit of help.
For starters, the 49ers and Eagles can't both win out. If they do that, the Vikings obviously can't catch them, no matter what they do. Both teams seem likely to win this week, as the 49ers host the Texans and the Eagles travel to Washington. But things get much tougher in Week 18, with the 49ers facing the Rams in LA and the Eagles hosting the Cowboys. Since we're assuming the Vikings beat the Packers in this scenario, both the Rams and Cowboys will have seeding to play for in their regular season finales.
It's not quite as simple as the Vikings winning out and the Eagles losing a game, though. If the Vikings win out, the Eagles go 1-1, and the Saints also win out, the Saints would get in ahead of Minnesota and Philadelphia on a strength of victory tiebreaker. Those three teams would be 9-8, with 7-5 conference records and not enough common games between the three of them, so it would go to SOV, where the Saints are comfortably ahead.
Put simply, the Vikings would win individual head-to-head tiebreakers over the Saints or Eagles on common games or strength of victory, but the Saints would take it in a three-way tie between those teams.
The 49ers are still in the mix, too. Take the scenario where the Vikings, Eagles, and Saints all win out. If the 49ers also win out, they're in along with the Eagles. But if they drop a game — most likely to the Rams in Week 18 — the Vikings would get in and San Francisco would miss out. The Vikings can't win a head-to-head tiebreaker against SF, but if multiple teams are involved, they'd have a chance to beat them out on conference record (with a loss to the Rams) or potentially strength of victory.
If the Saints lose a game, the Vikings really need the Eagles to lose a game or the 49ers to lose out.
It's all rather complicated. There's also a way for the Vikings to stay alive even with a loss on Sunday if the Eagles and Falcons also lose. A Vikings loss and an Eagles win eliminates Minnesota.
The main point is this: the Vikings need to handle their own business and find a way to beat the Packers to keep their hopes alive. Fans should also be cheering for losses from the 49ers, Saints, Eagles, and Falcons.
If the postseason is still a possibility after this weekend, it'll be easier to dive into all of the exact scenarios next week.
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