NFC Playoff Picture Update: What are the Vikings' Paths to the Postseason?
By escaping with a one-point victory in a wild game against the Panthers, the Vikings kept their playoff hopes alive and have a legitimate chance to sneak into an expanded postseason if they play well over the final five games of 2020.
Reaching the playoffs is something that has seemed far-fetched for the Vikings at plenty of points during their up-and-down season. When they started 1-5, fans were talking more about the possibility of a top-ten draft pick than a postseason berth. When their three-game win streak came crashing down in a heartbreaking loss to the Cowboys, the dream seemed dead again. And when Chad Beebe muffed a punt that appeared to lose the game last Sunday, the final nail was almost screwed into the proverbial coffin.
And yet, despite all that, the Vikings have a real path to finding themselves in the NFC's No. 7 seed in a couple days if two games go their way this weekend. Here's everything you need to know about Minnesota's path(s) to securing a wild card spot.
Update: The Vikings are in the seventh seed after Week 13. Details here.
The playoff picture heading into Week 13
To start, let's take a look at the current NFC standings (via ESPN).
Thanks to the Cardinals and Bears losing last Sunday, the Vikings are just one game out of a playoff spot and sit in the No. 8 slot in the conference. The NFC North title is out of reach with just five games left, but as we'll explore in a second, each of the three teams currently occupying a wild card spot are potentially catchable.
Playoff odds
The Vikings may be just one game out of a playoff spot, but it's important to remember that they're still considered a bit of a longshot. Using the percentage chances given by three analytical models helps us establish some context for this discussion.
Back when they were 1-5 heading into their bye week, the Vikings' playoff odds were in the single digits. They crept up every week to start November, plummeted again after the Cowboys loss, and then bounced back slightly due to the win over Carolina.
Right now, FiveThirtyEight is the most bullish on the Vikings, giving them a 30 percent chance to reach the postseason. ESPN's Football Power Index has that number at 24.6 percent, while Football Outsiders puts it at just 17 percent. Regardless of which model you trust the most, they all agree that Minnesota has significantly less than a 50 percent chance to get in.
Teams within reach
If the Vikings are going to earn a playoff spot, they'll have to displace someone else. That will almost certainly be one of three teams.
Arizona Cardinals (6-5)
The Cardinals are the most obvious target for the Vikings to catch. They've lost three of their past four games and have another difficult opponent coming up this week.
The Vikings are also in good shape when it comes to potential tiebreakers with Arizona. The first tiebreaker between the two would be conference record. The Cardinals are 4-3 against the NFC with five more to play, while the Vikings are 4-4 with four conference games left. If they finish with the same conference record as well, the next tiebreaker would be common opponents (Seahawks, Lions, Panthers, Cowboys). The Cardinals went 2-3 against that group and the Vikings are 2-2, meaning they would just need to beat Detroit in Week 17 to win that potential tiebreaker.
Remaining schedule: vs. Rams, at Giants, vs. Eagles, vs. 49ers, at Rams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)
Because they play the Buccaneers in Week 14, the Vikings actually control their own destiny when it comes to making the playoffs. If Minnesota can take care of the Jaguars this week while Tampa Bay is on a bye, that would set up a huge game the following week. The Vikings would head to Florida at 6-6, one game back of the Bucs. With a win, the Vikings would have the head-to-head tiebreaker and would move ahead of Tom Brady's team in the standings.
Like the Cardinals, the Buccaneers have lost three of their past four games. Brady has looked pretty shaky during that stretch, but this team still has a ton of talent on both sides of the ball.
Remaining schedule: BYE, vs. Vikings, at Falcons, at Lions, vs. Falcons
Los Angeles Rams (7-4)
The Rams will be harder to catch than the other two because they're two full games ahead of the Vikings. But if they lose to the Cardinals this week and the Vikings beat the Jaguars, that lead would shrink to just one. LA might have the best defense in the NFL, but Jared Goff has been very inconsistent this year and looked terrible in a loss to the 49ers last week.
Importantly, four of their final five games are potentially losable.
Remaining schedule: at Cardinals, vs. Patriots, vs. Jets, at Seahawks, vs. Cardinals
Games to watch in Week 13
Vikings (5-6) vs. Jaguars (1-10): 12 p.m. CT, CBS
This one is obvious. If the Vikings can't beat the Jaguars at home, their playoff hopes will be almost completely dead.
Cardinals (6-5) vs. Rams (7-4): 3:05 p.m. CT on FOX
It helps the Vikings that one of these teams has to lose this week. Minnesota fans should cheer for the Rams, but the Cardinals winning wouldn't be a disaster.
Lions (4-7) vs. Bears (5-6): 12 p.m. CT on FOX
49ers (5-6) vs. Bills (8-3): 7:15 p.m. CT (Monday) on ESPN
These two are less important, but it would be helpful for the Bears and 49ers to lose so they're no longer in the picture and tied with the Vikings.
The Vikings control their own destiny
As mentioned earlier, the Vikings control their own destiny against the Buccaneers. They also can potentially pass the Cardinals by winning four of their final five games to finish 9-7.
The Vikings' remaining schedule is vs. Jaguars, at Buccaneers, vs. Bears, at Saints, at Lions.
They need to take care of business against the Jaguars, Bears, and Lions, and they'll need to win at least one of the Buccaneers or Saints games (both coming on the road). If the Vikings play up to their potential, they could certainly do that. But they've been an inconsistent team this year, with losses to the Falcons and Cowboys removing all of their margin for error. That's why, despite there being a clear path to the playoff for Minnesota, their chances of getting there are still at just 30 percent or less.
This Sunday against the Jaguars is all about living to see another week.
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