Inside The Vikings

Not Shockingly, the Vikings Rank Last in 'Luck' Through 3 Weeks

The Vikings haven't gotten many breaks to go their way during their 0-3 start.
Will Ragatz|
Not Shockingly, the Vikings Rank Last in 'Luck' Through 3 Weeks
Not Shockingly, the Vikings Rank Last in 'Luck' Through 3 Weeks

In this story:

Minnesota Vikings

Three weeks into the 2023 season, the Vikings rank last in win probability added via "luck," according to NFL data scientist Tom Bliss. 

Talk about stats that match the eye test.

The Vikings, who ranked fifth last season, are in last by a large margin, mostly due to the success of their opponents' kicking games.

Buccaneers kicker Chase McLaughlin was perfect in Week 1, including a 57-yard game-winner. The Eagles' Jake Elliott missed a 55-yarder in Week 2, but made up for it with a 61-yard make right before halftime. Cameron Dicker missed a 53-yarder on Sunday, but made all four extra points.

The makes from 57 and 61 are deemed unlucky for the Vikings, and the misses from 55 and 53 don't negate that very much because the make probabilities were already somewhat low. The McLaughlin miss was particularly impactful to "win probability" because it came late in the fourth quarter of a tie game.

Here's how these stats are explained:

These values are measured by calculating the win probability of the observed outcome and subtracting the expected win probability based on the likelihood of each luck outcome. Win probability is calculated using the time remaining, point differential, down, distance, yard line and timeouts remaining.

Minnesota has also had bad fumble luck. The Vikings have fumbled seven times and lost all of them. They've also had opponents recover a few fumbles, although they finally recovered one on Sunday when Jordan Hicks located his own forced fumble.

Lastly, the Vikings haven't benefited from many dropped interceptions or dropped passes by their opponents. The two plays from Sunday's loss to the Chargers that summed up the Vikings' season were Akayleb Evans' dropped INT that became a touchdown and T.J. Hockenson's dropped touchdown that became an INT.

The Vikings have a lot of things they need to improve, but a little luck regression could go a long way as they look to climb out of an 0-3 hole.

Thanks for reading. Make sure to bookmark this site and check back daily for the latest Vikings news and analysis all season long.

Subscribe to the Inside the Vikings newsletter

Follow Will Ragatz on Twitter

Published
Will Ragatz
WILL RAGATZ

Will Ragatz is a senior writer for Vikings On SI, who also covers the Twins, Timberwolves, Gophers, and other Minnesota teams. He is a credentialed Minnesota Vikings beat reporter, covering the team extensively at practices, games and throughout the NFL draft and free agency period. Ragatz attended Northwestern University, where he studied at the prestigious Medill School of Journalism. During his time as a student, he covered Northwestern Wildcats football and basketball for SB Nation’s Inside NU, eventually serving as co-editor-in-chief in his junior year. In the fall of 2018, Will interned in Sports Illustrated’s newsroom in New York City, where he wrote articles on Major League Baseball, college football, and college basketball for SI.com.

Share on XFollow WillRagatz
Home/News