PFF Projects a Contract Extension For Vikings' Danielle Hunter
Somewhat lost in the buzz surrounding the Dalvin Cook situation and a possible Justin Jefferson extension is that two other Vikings stars — T.J. Hockenson and Danielle Hunter — are in line for new contracts this offseason.
Of the two, Hunter's situation is a bit more interesting and nuanced. The Vikings' Pro Bowl edge rusher is set to make (up to) just $5.5 million this season as a result of previous restructures to the five-year, $72 million contract he signed back in 2018. Since signing that deal and immediately, massively outperforming it for two straight seasons, Hunter has dealt with an assortment of contract drama and season-ending injuries.
Last year, the 2015 third-round pick stayed healthy and returned to his dominant form despite moving to a new position in a vastly different defensive scheme. Now, entering what would be a contract year at age 28, Hunter is finally in line to cash in again. It's a situation that needs resolving, as Hunter hasn't been in attendance at Vikings OTAs and isn't going to be satisfied with a $4.9 million base salary.
Luckily, the great Brad Spielberger from PFF can help us out with an idea on what a Hunter extension could look like. He recently projected extensions for several prominent veterans, including Hunter.
Here's what he settled on: Three years, $67.5 million ($22.5 million AAV), with $37.125 million guaranteed.
That AAV would place Hunter right behind Kahlil Mack and ahead of Bradley Chubb as the sixth highest-paid edge rusher in the league, which feels fair for a player who finished tied for eighth in pressures last year after being second in 2019, his last fully-healthy season. With only $37 million or so guaranteed, it could function more like a true two-year deal.
A few contractual data points could inform the situation here. First, Hunter earned $20 million in cash in 2022 on his reworked contract and certainly played up to that level with 70 quarterback pressures and 40 defensive stops — both top-10 marks among edge defenders. That should serve as the floor in terms of an average annual value on a multi-year extension. Second, the Los Angeles Chargers traded a second-round pick to the Chicago Bears last offseason to inherit a three-year, $63.9 million contract for Mack’s age-31 to age-33 seasons after he played just 315 snaps in 2021. It seems more likely at this point Mack ends up playing for $40.65 million across two years. This is, arguably, a slightly higher floor.
An important distinction raised by Spielberger is whether or not Hunter's new deal would add years on top of his small 2023 salary, or if that year would be replaced entirely with a new deal that kicks in right away. He chose the latter, which is undoubtedly what Hunter's camp will push for.
A hold-up in negotiations could be whether the 2023 year remains and new years are tacked on, or the two sides rip the old contract up and start fresh. Odds are, Hunter does not want to simply add on to a season with a $5.5 million cash outlay and, thus, agree to a deal that is far smaller in overall value. Here, we are projecting a brand-new three-year contract that runs through 2025, when Hunter will be 31 years old, and he could still sign another deal. This is a really tricky contract to project, considering Hunter has a troubling recent injury history but is also an extremely talented and productive player on a defense not exactly flush with them.
It's an interesting situation for several reasons.
From Hunter's side, he may feel like he's worth even more than a deal like this, given how productive he's been when he's been healthy. At 28, this is his chance to cash in on one more big contract while he's still in his prime, so he and his camp will try to get as much as they can.
That could put the Vikings in a tricky spot. Hunter is their best defensive player, and after trading away Za'Darius Smith, they really need him to be his dominant self as the leader of their pass rush this season. Looking beyond this year, Smith's replacement Marcus Davenport is only on a one-year deal. If the Vikings were to trade Hunter, their defense would be in a very rough spot. But how high will they be willing to go on a contract for a player who missed all of the 2020 season and half of 2021 due to injury?
Then there's the question of timeline and the salary cap puzzle. Should the Vikings, who made some moves to get younger this offseason, hand out a huge multi-year deal for a player who turns 29 in October? They also have potential extensions for Jefferson, Hockenson, and Christian Darrisaw coming up in the near future, plus an expensive quarterback who would have a big dead cap hit if he walks in free agency next spring. Hunter isn't too old to be part of a multi-year "time horizon," to borrow Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's phrase, but his injury history complicates things a bit.
It's all part of the difficult equation Adofo-Mensah faces this offseason and beyond.
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