Quarterbacks the Vikings could select in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft
What if it isn't about the playcaller, the system, or the offensive line? What if, no matter how often he says he'll play better, Kirk Cousins just isn't good enough?
That's the $84 million question in Minnesota.
It's a question that's coming up more and more during the early stages of a 2019 season where Cousins has arguably cost his team two crucial divisional games. The quarterback who was signed to put the Vikings over the top has instead lived up to – and enhanced – his reputation as someone incapable of winning big games.
The season, of course, is not over. There are still 12 games to be played, with the Vikings just a game out of first place in an incredibly competitive NFC North. Starting this weekend in New Jersey against a porous Giants secondary, Cousins will have every opportunity to turn his year around. Receivers have been open and Cousins has had time to throw; now it's on him to improve his pocket presence, aggressiveness, and accuracy. Those are all aspects of quarterback play in which he has demonstrated proficiency in the past.
But if he can't do it – if, in his 8th season, this is just who he is – the Vikings will need to explore other options going forward. If this season gets ugly, and maybe even if it doesn't, the Vikings will have to seriously consider using their first round draft selection on a quarterback next April. Cousins is guaranteed $29.5 million in 2020, so the Vikings could let a rookie QB sit for a year before taking the reigns.
With that in mind, let's take a look at some of the options that might be available. For the purpose of this exercise, let's assume the Vikings will be drafting somewhere in the middle of the first round. The only quarterback we can almost certainly rule out is Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa, widely considered to be the best QB on the board and a top-5 pick.
The High-Ceiling Prospect: Justin Herbert, Oregon
Scouts have been touting Herbert as a potential first-round pick for years due to his rare combination of size, accuracy, and decision-making. He showed flashes of brilliance in 16 games over his freshman and sophomore seasons, and although he went through some struggles last year, he was still projected to be a 2019 first-rounder.
In a decision that surprised many, Herbert elected to return to Oregon for his senior season. He's been lights out through four games, throwing for 14 touchdowns and zero picks on 129 attempts. Herbert is adept at throwing on the run and possesses truly elite upside. He has a good chance to be the second QB taken after Tagovailoa, which could be well before the Vikings make their selection. However, he does have some question marks about footwork and pocket presence that could cause him to fall to later in the first round.
The Rising Star: Joe Burrow, LSU
No quarterback in the country has improved their draft projections more than Burrow has so far in 2019. The Ohio State transfer has been absolutely incredible thus far for the fifth-ranked Tigers and has generated a ton of early Heisman buzz. He leads the country with an absurd 80.6 completion percentage and is second in yards per attempt and QB rating.
As a result, Burrow has gone from barely on the NFL radar after a so-so 2018 season to now being a potential first-round pick. He is smart, athletic, and extremely tough, but the biggest concern that remains is his non-elite arm strength. So far, his accuracy and confidence have made arm strength a non-issue, but the NFL is a different beast. Depending on how the rest of the season goes, Burrow could be available right around where the Vikings figure to end up picking.
The Prototype: Jacob Eason, Washington
From a physical perspective, Eason is the type of quarterback scouts salivate over. He's 6'6", 227 pounds and was one of the top recruits in the nation in 2016. He started at Georgia as a true freshman, but decided to transfer after losing the job in 2017 to newcomer Jake Fromm (more on him later). He ended up at Washington and after sitting out a year, has begun 2019 by reminding the football world of his talent.
Of all of the quarterbacks on this list, Eason possesses the best arm strength. He has the velocity to fit the ball in tight windows and push it deep down the field with excellent anticipation. The concerns with him are touch and mobility. It's also worth noting that he has had three great games this season against lesser competition and two very quiet games against good teams. Eason's big arm could make him a good fit with Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, but he needs to show more against strong competition this season.
The NFL-Ready Winner: Jake Fromm, Georgia
If the Vikings are looking for someone with big-game experience and intangibles, Fromm might be their guy. He showed up at Georgia in 2017 and seized the job from the more highly-touted Eason, leading the Bulldogs all the way to overtime against Alabama in the national championship game. He mostly played a game-manager role that year on a team with a dominant rushing attack, averaging 174 passing yards per game.
In 2018, the top quarterback recruit in the country arrived in Athens in dual-threat magician Justin Fields. Fromm beat him out too, forcing Fields to transfer to Ohio State. Fromm threw for 27 touchdowns and just 5 picks as a sophomore, turning NFL heads with his vision, decision-making and accuracy.
He's still not the most exciting prospect, but he's a proven winner and leader who can make every type of throw you need him to make. Matt Miller described him as "the perfect QB prospect for win-now NFL teams." The Vikings are still in that category – for now.
The Dual-Threat Gunslinger: Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma
Yet another QB who is excelling after a transfer, Hurts has a serious chance to bring home the third straight Heisman trophy by a different Oklahoma signal-caller. He's gotten off to a ridiculous start to the 2019 season, with 1,295 yards and 12 touchdowns through the air and 443 yards and 5 more scores on the ground. He's done all of that in four games.
Playing in Lincoln Riley's system has led to huge numbers for the former Alabama starter – as it did for Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray before him – and Hurts has yet to face a defense capable of providing any resistance. Still, his talent cannot be ignored. Hurts throws a beautiful deep ball and is a constant threat to escape the pocket, where he can deliver accurate throws on the run or take off and pick up big chunks with his wheels.
It will be fascinating to see how Hurts plays in big games this season, and how high he could potentially rise in the 2020 draft. Would the Vikings take a chance on Hurts' playmaking ability in the first or second round?
The Wildcard: Jordan Love, Utah State
Not all highly-drafted quarterbacks hail from Power-5 schools; Carson Wentz and Josh Allen are two recent examples of that. In 2020, the small-school phenom is Love, who broke onto the scene last year by throwing for 32 touchdowns with just 6 picks. His size, arm strength and mobility make him the complete package from a physical standpoint, and he can make plays off-script as well as any QB in the country. His accuracy and decision-making are inconsistent, but the upside is spectacular.
If he continues to play well, there's no ceiling to how high Love could climb on draft boards. A big test looms this Saturday in the form of a road game against Burrow and LSU. If you're a Vikings fan thinking about the future, you may want to tune in to that one.
Potential non-first-round QBs: KJ Costello, Stanford; Nate Stanley, Iowa; Steven Montez, Colorado; Sam Ehlinger, Texas; Kellen Mond, Texas A&M, Brian Lewerke, Michigan State
