Is Eric Wilson's Strong Play Making Anthony Barr Expendable in 2021?
When Vikings linebacker Anthony Barr suffered a season-ending pectoral injury against the Colts in Week 2, things looked bleak at the position. The Vikings were already without Ben Gedeon and Cameron Smith for medical reasons, but losing Barr was far more impactful. Entering his seventh year as a starter, Barr is one of the team's veteran leaders and has been a crucial chess piece for Mike Zimmer's defense ever since he was Zimmer's first draft pick back in 2014.
Into Barr's every-down role stepped Eric Wilson, a fairly unheralded former UDFA who had never played more than 35 percent of the team's defensive snaps over the past two seasons. Given his lack of draft pedigree and experience, it would've been reasonable to expect a pretty large drop-off in production with Wilson taking over for Barr.
Yet, that hasn't exactly been the case. Wilson has seized the opportunity and run with it, stuffing the stat sheet and demonstrating plenty of growth from seasons past. He's second on the team in tackles behind only Eric Kendricks, who is once again playing at an All-Pro level. Wilson has the range and instincts to make plays in coverage, and his three interceptions ranks first among Vikings defenders and first among all NFL linebackers. He's always been able to use his athleticism effectively as a blitzer, with five sacks between 2018 and 2019, and he has another 2.5 already this year. He's also added a team-high two fumble recoveries for good measure.
"I don’t know that anyone’s playing at a higher level than Eric Wilson right now," Kendricks said. "That man’s a walking turnover. I feel like he’s coming into his own. He’s already in his own. He understands what kind of player he is at this point and he knows what he brings to the table. He goes out there with that confidence and that know-how, that experience now under his belt, and he just goes and does it."
Wilson had a productive three-year career at the University of Cincinnati but went undrafted in 2017 due to concerns about his size. He was scooped up by the Vikings, made the active roster as a rookie, and was an important special teams contributor during that 13-3 season. He kept that role on special teams in 2018 and 2019, but also earned roughly a third of the defensive snaps, competing with Ben Gedeon for playing time behind Kendricks and Barr. Rick Spielman and the Vikings' college scouting department have a history of finding undrafted gems like Adam Thielen and Anthony Harris, and Wilson is proving to be another of those.
Wilson was a restricted free agent this offseason, and the Vikings didn't hesitate to use a second-round tender on him, essentially guaranteeing he would be back in 2020 on a one-year deal. With unrestricted free agency ahead of him, he has taken full advantage of an unexpected chance to play a full-time role alongside Kendricks and showcase his abilities. The Vikings' defense has eight takeaways this season and five of them have ended up in Wilson's hands. That doesn't happen by accident.
Wilson's emergence – and Barr's contract situation – creates some uncertainty about how the Vikings will approach the linebacker position next offseason. While Kendricks is under contract through the 2023 season and is clearly someone you want to build a defense around, the Vikings have a decision to make when it comes to who they want next to him.
The simple answer is to keep the Kendricks-Barr pairing together for a seventh year. Barr is also under contract through the 2023 season, and he's been a key piece of Zimmer's defense for the head coach's entire tenure. His versatility, size, and understanding of the complexities of Zimmer's scheme are all assets that Wilson can't replicate at this point. Barr is a much more reliable tackler than Wilson; per PFF, Wilson has 11 missed tackles in eight games this year, while Barr had 15 missed tackles in 43 games between 2017 and 2019. Barr also has adequate range in coverage and is a weapon that must be accounted for when Zimmer dials up blitzes.
Here's the thing, though: Barr probably peaked in 2015 and the current version of him almost certainly isn't worth the kind of money he's set to make. Barr's cap hits from 2021 to 2023 are $15.5 million, $15.6 million, and $18.1 million. That's a major financial commitment for a player who has struggled with consistency (as shown in his yearly PFF grades below), averages around 20 pressures and 2.5 sacks per year, and has been exposed in coverage at times in the past.
Moving on from Barr next offseason would save the Vikings $7.7 in salary cap space, and it's not out of the question that they could go in that direction, even though it would require eating $7.8 million in dead money. Wilson is playing his way into a raise in 2021 – he's making less than $3.3 million this year – but he won't cost as much as Barr and is 2.5 years younger. If he continues playing at a high level in the second half of 2020, it's possible the Vikings would look to re-sign Wilson, move on from Barr, and go into 2021 with a linebacking trio of Kendricks, Wilson, and either Todd Davis or Troy Dye.
With that said, it's also possible that the Vikings go the other direction. The gaudy turnover numbers and that highlight reel I put together don't tell the whole story with Wilson, who frequently gets washed out of his gap in run defense and the leads the Vikings in missed tackles this season by a wide margin. Despite all of the big plays, it's worth questioning whether Wilson is better suited as a No. 3 linebacker than a true every-down starter.
If the Vikings feel that that's the case, they might let some other team pay Wilson in free agency next year and look to restructure Barr's contract to make his cap hit a bit more manageable. They almost certainly won't both keep Barr and pay Wilson the starter money he'll likely command on the open market. It just doesn't make sense to spend a lot on a No. 3 linebacker in a league where nickel is the new base defense, especially with Dye and others waiting in the wings.
There's no easy or right answer here. Wilson has eight more games this season for the Vikings to evaluate, and the decision may come down to how he plays over that final stretch. If he's able to cut down on the missed tackles and show progress as a run defender while continuing to create sacks and turnovers, that could go a long way.
Come next offseason, the Vikings are going to have to choose who they like most as a complement to Kendricks, weighing both talent and cost in that decision-making process.
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