Vikings' Bend-Don't-Break Defense Perfect in Fourth Quarters So Far
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Has the Vikings' defense been good this season? Has it been bad? Is it somewhere in the middle?
The answer is a bit complicated. There are some numbers that suggest Ed Donatell's unit is off to a solid start to the year. There are other numbers that indicate the defense has mostly struggled and is an area of concern going forward. It all depends on which statistics you value.
Let's start with the pessimistic view. Using Football Outsiders' DVOA (an opponent-adjusted efficiency metric), the Vikings' defense ranks 25th in the NFL through three weeks. That's largely on the back of their 31st-ranked run defense, but it's not like the 20th-ranked pass defense has been great either. Minnesota's defense is 18th in expected points added per play and 23rd in opponent success rate.
If you prefer traditional stats, the Vikings are 30th in total yards allowed per game at 413.3. They're giving up 6.0 yards per play, which is tied for 26th.
None of that looks great. And yet, you can also make a case that the defense is playing well because of how it's limiting points and getting the job done in big moments.
The Vikings have given up 55 points in three games, tied for the ninth-fewest in the league. After holding the Packers to seven points, they gave up 24 points each to the Eagles and Lions. In their two games against teams other than the Vikings — including a Week 1 matchup against each other — the Eagles and Lions averaged 31 and 35.5 points, respectively.
Along with the Colts, the Vikings are one of two teams that hasn't allowed a point in the fourth quarter this season. That's pretty impressive, no matter how you look at it.
The Vikings' defense has been a bend-don't-break unit so far. They've been stout on third downs, ranking 13th by giving up conversions on just over 34 percent of opponents' third down plays. In the Vikings' two wins, they came up with big plays when they needed to.
In Week 1 against the Packers, the Vikings obviously benefited from Christian Watson's dropped touchdown on Green Bay's first offensive play. But they sacked Aaron Rodgers out of field goal range on the Packers' next drive and stuffed A.J. Dillon on fourth and goal from the 1 on the series after that. A Harrison Smith interception and a Jordan Hicks forced fumble helped keep the Packers scoreless until the middle of the third quarter, by which point the Vikings were already up 20-0. A fourth-down Eric Kendricks pass breakup in the fourth quarter helped seal the victory.
It's true that in Week 2 against the Eagles, the Vikings' defense was horrifically gashed for 347 yards and 24 points in the first half. But to their credit, they adjusted and kept Philadelphia off the board for the rest of the game, leaving the door open for a potential comeback that the offense couldn't put together.
Similar concerns popped up on Sunday against the Lions, who jumped out to a 14-0 lead without facing much resistance. Then the Vikings' defense stiffened again, even without Smith. Kendricks had another huge fourth-down PBU in the second quarter. Hicks broke up a pass to stall a drive in the final two minutes of the first half (a period of the game that was a massive issue last season). A Patrick Peterson PBU forced a punt in the fourth quarter. Lastly, another fourth and 1 stop late in the game kept the Vikings alive, and they eventually rallied for an unlikely win.
Taking everything into account, the safe conclusion is to say that we still don't know if this is a good defense or not.
Donatell and his staff need to make adjustments so receivers aren't wide open early in games. The Vikings can't just continue to sit back, give up tons of cushion, and make communication mistakes in zone coverage. They might need to play more man and bring more pressure than Donatell's scheme typically calls for.
Still, the pieces are still there for this defense to be good. Harrison Phillips and Dalvin Tomlinson are playing well in the middle of the defensive line. Za'Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter are playing well on the edge, although their effectiveness has been limited by quarterbacks getting rid of the ball quickly. Kendricks and Hicks have mostly been good at inside linebacker.
The secondary is still a concern, but getting Harrison Smith back for the London game should help (even if Josh Metellus was solid against the Lions). It'll be interesting to see if rookies Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth eventually work themselves into the mix.
The reality is that we just need to see more. It's been an up and down start for the Vikings' defense, but they've come up big when needed most. Now let's see what kind of adjustments they can make to avoid getting trampled early in games.
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