The Vikings' Ceiling Will Be Determined By Their Ability to Protect Kirk Cousins
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The Vikings' stunning 40-3 loss to the Cowboys on Sunday looked a lot like some of the bleaker defeats of the Mike Zimmer era — on the offensive side of the ball, specifically.
Kirk Cousins was pressured on 60 percent of his dropbacks, according to PFF, and was sacked a career-high seven times. There's very little an offense can do when its quarterback is under pressure seemingly every time he looks to pass, particularly when a deficit forces you to become more one-dimensional.
It was reminiscent of a 14-7 loss to the Browns in Week 4 of last season, when Cousins was pressured on 53.7 percent of his dropbacks and the Vikings were held scoreless after an opening-drive touchdown.
It was reminiscent of a loss to the eventual champion Buccaneers in 2020, when Cousins was pressured on 46.8 percent of his dropbacks and was sacked six times.
It was reminiscent of three different losses in the 2019 season — Week 4 in Chicago, Week 16 against the Packers, and the divisional round game against the 49ers — in which Cousins was sacked five or six times by elite defensive fronts and the Vikings scored a combined 26 points. Two of those three featured the opponent recording pressure rates of at least 47 percent.
It was reminiscent of a 27-6 loss to the Bills in 2018, in which Cousins was pressured on 53.3 percent of his dropbacks and sacked four times.
Go back before Cousins' arrival and you can find plenty of other examples where pressure was a killer for Case Keenum or Sam Bradford or Teddy Bridgewater. The most notable, of course, is the 2017 NFC title game, where Keenum was pressured on 48 percent of his dropbacks in a 38-7 loss. Players and play callers came and went over those years, but the overarching theme is that a leaky offensive line has kept the Vikings' ceiling below championship level for a long time.
It's possible that this loss to the Cowboys ends up as a one-time aberration for the Vikings, who were never going to continue pulling off narrow victory after narrow victory every single week. They were coming off a mentally and physically draining comeback win over the Bills, if you want to give them that excuse. The Cowboys are a very good team that took it to the Vikings in their own building. Star left tackle Christian Darrisaw got hurt early on. Things spiraled out of control.
It's not difficult to envision the Vikings bouncing back and looking much more like themselves on Thursday night against the Patriots. They're still a talented, well-coached, 8-2 football team that's in control of NFC North and on a path to be the No. 2 seed in the conference come playoff time.
But if there's one glaring concern with the Vikings going forward — both in terms of the next few games and their ceiling in January — it's the offensive line and how pressure affects Cousins.
For the most part, the Vikings' offensive line has been vastly improved this season compared to the last decade and change. They've figured out the tackle position for the long haul with Darrisaw on one side and O'Neill on the other. Garrett Bradbury has played the best football of his career in his fourth season. With Ezra Cleveland proving capable at left guard, rookie RG Ed Ingram has really been the only weak point on Minnesota's OL, and even he's at least been an asset in run blocking. New position coach Chris Kuper deserves a lot of credit for that unit's play.
Sunday saw a lot of regression from the O-line, albeit against an elite defensive front.
Before leaving with a concussion, Darrisaw allowed his first two sacks of the season, though the first one — a Micah Parsons strip sack that set the tone for the game on its third play from scrimmage — was caused by Cousins holding onto the ball for far too long. Blake Brandel came in for Darrisaw and gave up two more sacks from the left side. Bradbury allowed a season-high five pressures, per PFF, with O'Neill and Ingram surrendering three apiece.
Cousins didn't help himself much. He held onto the ball too long at times — averaging over three seconds to throw for the second time all year — and struggled to diagnose some of the Cowboys' simulated pressure looks, where they'd show blitz at the line of scrimmage and then drop some of those defenders into coverage. Throughout his career, Cousins has usually had a difficult time with pressure. He's taken steps in that area this year, but he'll never be among the best quarterbacks at escaping sacks and making plays outside of structure. That's not who he is. Regardless, no quarterback in the league would've had a good day against the rate of pressure Cousins saw on Sunday.
The offensive line was the primary issue. At least one lineman seemed to whiff on their block during every dropback. The Cowboys were able to generate consistent, rapid pressure while rushing just four players most of the time. It became a vicious cycle, with the Vikings falling behind in the game and facing difficult down and distance situations that forced them to continue dropping back to pass. The end result was Minnesota going 1 for 11 on third down and scoring just three points all game.
There isn't much O'Connell can do when the offensive line is getting dominated to that extent.
"They were able to kind of get us on some of those known passing situations and force negative plays," O'Connell said. "You can have all the route concepts you want to dial up there, but none of that really matters if your quarterback can't go through those progressions."
"We were trying to do some things to help on the edges as much as possible, especially when (Darrisaw) went down," he added. "Then there would be interior penetration. Then trying to maybe help interior-wise and make sure the slide's going the right way, and then there were some issues on the perimeter as well."
The Vikings are glad to have the opportunity to get back out there on a short week; they'll look to shake the Dallas loss off and bounce back against the Patriots on Thanksgiving night. The offensive line will once again be in the spotlight against a New England defense that trails only the Cowboys in sack rate and pressure rate. Patriots edge rusher Matthew Judon leads the NFL with 13 sacks and is fourth with 47 pressures, and players like Deatrich Wise Jr. and Josh Uche have been dangerous as well. Bill Belichick is one of the sport's all-time great defensive minds.
After New England, the Vikings will face a Jets defensive front that is also among the league's best. And if O'Connell's team is to make a deep run in the postseason, it'll have to figure out how to overcome elite defensive fronts in potential matchups with the Eagles, Cowboys, and 49ers.
The Vikings have some concerns on the defensive side of the ball, which is a separate discussion. But ultimately, their ability to give Cousins ample time in the pocket against the NFC's best defenses is what will determine whether or not they have a championship ceiling this season.
To start, let's see how they respond against the Patriots in primetime.
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