Vikings-Lions Predictions: Which 1-1 Team Wins This Week 3 NFC North Battle?
Coming off a rough loss in Philadelphia on Monday night, the pressure is on the Vikings to bounce back and protect their home field with a victory over the Lions. It won't be easy, as Dan Campbell's team is playing with a lot of confidence and has the offense to make things difficult on Minnesota.
Which 1-1 team will get the win on Sunday? Let's dive into some predictions, first from myself and then from a variety of national analysts. The Vikings are six-point favorites.
Will's pick: Vikings 33, Lions 30
2022 record: 2-0
I think this will be a close game; the spread seems a bit too high for how evenly matched the teams look. The Lions should be able to run the ball effectively and put up points on the Vikings' defense. However, Minnesota should be able to score plenty of points, too. I think we could see a good, old-fashioned shootout at U.S. Bank Stadium between Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff (which of course means it'll actually be a low-scoring mess). I've got the Vikings pulling out a narrow win at home.
National predictions
SI MMQB: Three of SI's five pickers — John Pluym, Gary Gramling, and Mitch Goldich — are on the Vikings. Conor Orr and Albert Breer picked a Lions upset.
Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Lions 33, Vikings 30
Less than one week after getting steamrolled by one of football’s most physical offensive lines, the Vikings’ defense faces another. In this seesaw early portion of the season, I tend to pick according to which units are most consistent. The Lions’ offense is that group. Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift are making the jump from good to special, and I trust Detroit's staff to give its squad a slight edge.
Bleacher Report Staff: Vikings 33, Lions 30
Consider this my doubling down on Kirk Cousins and the Vikes. Nobody was really surprised to see one of the NFL's statistically worst Monday Night Football quarterbacks stumble face first into despair on the road against an Eagles team that is peaking a little too early. A lot of folks, this panel included, are high on the Lions coming off their first victory of the season. They are 2-0 ATS, 13-6 ATS in Dan Campbell's tenure if we add last season (and that includes a 1-1 straight up record and 2-0 ATS record vs. Minnesota), and the Lions took the same Eagles team that just thrashed the Vikes to the brink in Week 1; I respectfully understand all of that.“ But a six-point-favored Vikings team is probably more than most anticipated, and that has me thinking the bookmakers are seeing things the way I do: Cousins and the Vikes offense will bounce back aggressively in this one. Detroit has proven to always be a threat to kick open the backdoor, but I'm taking a page out of Jim Fassel's book early here in the season and backing a Vikings team that needs to make a statement against a division threat in emphatic fashion.
Mike Florio, PFT: Vikings 27, Lions 24
This has become a sneaky great rivalry, with a couple of barnburners in 2021. The Vikings should be able to win at home. Whichever team prevails, the final score should be close enough for the Lion to cover.
Michael David Smith, PFT: Vikings 35, Lions 31
The Lions’ offense is better than people think, but their secondary will struggle against Justin Jefferson and the Vikings will pull off a narrow win.
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Vikings 31, Lions 23
The Vikings were awful in losing to the Eagles on Monday night. The plan was bad on both sides of the ball. But they will get back on track here. The Lions have played well so far this season, especially on offense, but this is their first road game. The Minnesota offense will play well since it's not a Monday night game, which happen to cripple Kirk Cousins. The Vikings take it.
Will Brinson, CBS Sports: Lions 35, Vikings 31
The Lions over is a bet this season until it doesn't hit. This team simply refuses to die and thusly ends up in some kind of shootout every week. Imagine Dan Campbell yelling at you on the sideline — you don't think about the scoreboard, you just feel like you shotgunned four Red Bulls in a row. Then you run on the field and pretend it's a one-score game.
Mark Craig, Minneapolis Star Tribune: Vikings 28, Lions 20
There's full faith here that Vikings fans will make a huge difference that reinvigorates the pass rush against the statue that is Jared Goff. As for the back end of the defense, well, one can only hope that this week's game plan calls for covering receivers from inside the same area code.
Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Vikings 34, Lions 17
The Vikings' defense is much improved with a 3-4 scheme anchored by a good edge pass rush again. They also should be able to move the ball downfield with Justin Jefferson and run for chunks with Dalvin Cook at home vs. an overmatched Detroit defense. Minnesota will rattle Jared Goff plenty while Kirk Cousins gets settled to thoroughly outplay him.
Seth Walder, ESPN: Lions 30, Vikings 27
Eric Moody, ESPN: Vikings 34, Lions 20
What to watch for: The past three games between these teams have each been decided by two points, and the outcomes of both of last season's games were turned by scores on the final play. Vikings kicker Greg Joseph won the first with a 54-yard field goal, and Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown won the other with an 11-yard touchdown catch. This season, the Lions' rushing offense is averaging an NFL-high 7.2 yards per carry. That will pose a major test for a Vikings defense giving up 5.3 yards per rush, the fifth highest in the NFL. -- Kevin Seifert
Bold prediction: St. Brown will set a new NFL record with his ninth straight game with eight or more receptions. He was named the NFC Offensive Player of the Week on Wednesday, becoming Detroit's first receiver to win that honor since Calvin Johnson in 2015. He's brimming with confidence after hitting career highs in receiving yards (116) and TDs (two) in the Week 2 win over Washington, and Detroit quarterback Jared Goff describes him as "a very friendly target" with his route running and fundamentals. He should again get a lot of attention in Minnesota. -- Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: Minnesota running back Dalvin Cook had just 17 rushing yards last week, his third fewest in a game over his career. And while he has missed the Vikings' past three matchups against the Lions, Cook has averaged 106.3 rush yards per game and scored six rushing TDs in six career contests against Detroit.
Betting nugget: Minnesota has covered the spread the past four times it has been a favorite (1-0 this season). And over the past 10 seasons, it is a league-best 41-21-2 ATS after a loss (.661).
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