Vikings Rank in Bottom Half of NFL in Value Gained From Draft Picks Since 2012

Rick Spielman has been lauded as a strong drafter, but he missed too many times in the first round.

Was former Vikings GM Rick Spielman a good drafter? Most people would say yes, citing his many hits that include Justin Jefferson, Brian O'Neill, Dalvin Cook, Eric Kendricks, Danielle Hunter, Stefon Diggs, and Harrison Smith. Spielman's general philosophy of trading back and acquiring additional picks seemed to be a savvy one.

A new article from ESPN suggests that Spielman wasn't even an above-average drafter. They ranked all 32 teams by career value over expected on all draft picks since 2012, which happens to be the year Spielman took over as the Vikings' GM and gained sole decision-making power. The Vikings check in at 19th.

Here's how it works:

We took each player's career AV and measured it against a value based on where that player was taken in the NFL draft — we're calling it Career Approximate Value Over Expected (CAVOE). For example, players drafted in the first or second rounds have a higher baseline for performance, so if they struggle they will have much lower CAVOE scores than a sixth- or seventh-round pick who made little impact. 

A note about comparing older vs. newer draft classes: Older classes have had more opportunity to accrue value, both positive and negative. So, for example, a 2012 class having higher CAVOE scores than a 2020 class doesn't necessarily mean the 2012 class was better. It means the 2012 class has accrued more value over 10 years than the 2020 class has over two.

A couple caveats apply here. The rankings use Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value (AV) statistic, which isn't a flawless metric. And for each player, they're using the AV for their entire career, not the time they spent with the team they drafted him. Still, it's an interesting and useful look into which teams have drafted the most successful players over the past ten years.

Only 14 teams got a positive score by this metric. The Vikings, at 19th, are at -26.5. Here's how it breaks down:

If not for their incredible 2015 class, in which Kendricks, Hunter, and Diggs more than made up for taking Trae Waynes in the first round, the Vikings would be much lower. They also scored well in 2017 (mostly because of Cook and not having a first-round pick) and 2020 (Jefferson, Ezra Cleveland, Cameron Dantzler).

The Vikings' worst draft class of the last decade was 2013, when they drafted Sharrif Floyd, Xavier Rhodes, and Cordarrelle Patterson in the first round. 2012 (Matt Kalil) and 2016 (Laquon Treadwell) also stand out as poor classes. In six of the ten classes, the Vikings' first-round pick leads the way in negative value. Kalil, Floyd, Waynes, and Laquon Treadwell didn't pan out, while recent misses like Mike Hughes, Garrett Bradbury, and Jeff Gladney also hurt.

There's still plenty of time for the Vikings' recent draft classes to accumulate value, but this is an interesting piece of data that challenges the perception that Spielman was a successful drafter during his tenure as GM.

Notably, the Vikings' record over the past 10 years (87-72-2) ranks 11th, which is solidly ahead of their draft value ranking. The Vikings' value over expected solely on Day 3 picks ranks 23rd, which is a big part of the story.

The Packers rank 5th in total value over expected, while the Lions (18th) and Bears (21st) are in a similar spot as the Vikings.

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