Which Saints QB Would the Vikings Rather Face, Jameis Winston or Andy Dalton?
Saints starting quarterback Jameis Winston missed practice again on Thursday, placing his status for Sunday's game against the Vikings into doubt. He's dealing with fractures in his back and, on top of that, a banged-up ankle.
If Winston can't play, veteran Andy Dalton would get the start at QB, with Taysom Hill potentially mixing in as a gadget option.
Friday update: Winston has been listed as doubtful, meaning Dalton is expected to start.
Facing a backup quarterback is almost always a good thing for a defense. Vikings fans have been burned by several losses to backup quarterbacks in recent years, including Matt Moore and Chase Daniel in 2019, Dalton in 2020, and Cooper Rush in 2021. Go back a little further, and the best example is Nick Foles shredding the Vikings in the 2017/18 NFC championship game. Still, you would almost always prefer to face the backup, since there's a reason they aren't starting (the Vikings presumably lose anyways if Patrick Mahomes, Mitch Trubisky, Dak Prescott, and Carson Wentz played in those aforementioned games).
With that said, Sunday's game in London feels like the rare situation where there's a legitimate discussion to be had over which QB the Vikings would prefer to play against. That's because facing Winston, especially at less than full health, could lead to more opportunities for takeaways.
Winston's first three games this season have not been pretty. He's tied for the league lead with five interceptions, including a pick-six. He ranks 26th among starters in both passer rating and QBR. He's tied for fifth with 11 sacks taken, in part because he holds onto the ball too long at times. The Saints won their opener against the Falcons but have only scored 24 total points over their last two games.
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The thing with Winston is that he is going to be true to who he is as a quarterback. He has always been someone who looks for big plays, which leads to him turning the ball over at a high rate. There's no better example of that than his 2019 season with the Buccaneers, when he threw for 5,109 yards and 33 touchdowns, but also became the first QB to throw 30 interceptions in a season since Vinny Testaverde in 1988.
Pro Football Focus charts what they call big-time throws ("a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window") and turnover-worthy plays ("a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling"). Only three quarterbacks had more big-time throws than Winston's 31 in 2019, but no one had more than his 40 turnover-worthy plays. Tampa Bay went 7-9 that year.
This season, Winston leads all quarterbacks with an average depth of target (ADOT) of 12 yards. Kirk Cousins, comparatively, is towards the very bottom at 6.6 yards. Only three other QBs are above 10. Winston had an ADOT of at least 10.4 yards in every season from 2015 to 2019, when he was the Bucs' starter. He also leads all QBs by a decent margin in Next Gen Stats' aggressiveness metric, with over 25 percent of his throws going into tight windows.
Simply put, Winston wants to throw it deep and hunt big plays. His new favorite target this year is Chris Olave, the NFC's offensive rookie of the month for September. Olave has caught 17 passes for 268 yards, which is impressive. But his numbers could be even greater if a few more of Winston's long passes in his direction had been completed. Olave leads all players in deep targets (10) and air yards (536), and his ADOT (19.3 yards) is the highest of any player with at least 20 targets. No one else has more than 370 air yards this season.
The downside? Three of Winston's five interceptions have come while targeting Olave. His play style has also resulted in Alvin Kamara — one of the elite pass-catching RBs in the league — having just five catches for 19 yards in the two games he's played in. Winston just doesn't look to his checkdown options as much as someone like Drew Brees did.
It'll be a different story, stylistically, if Dalton plays. Back in his prime days with the Bengals, Dalton was willing to push the ball downfield to A.J. Green. But even then, the highest ADOT of his career was 9.3 yards in 2015. Over the last two years, as a backup with the Cowboys and Bears, Dalton's ADOT has been in the 7.5-7.6 yard range. And he hasn't thrown more than 14 interceptions in a season since 2014.
Back in Week 11 of 2020, Dalton went 22 of 32 for 203 yards with 3 TDs and 1 pick in a road win over the Vikings. His ADOT was 7.3 yards.
There's a reason Winston is starting over Dalton, who turns 35 in a couple weeks. Winston has more arm talent and mobility in the pocket. But his big-play approach comes with pros and cons.
If I'm the Vikings, I'm genuinely not sure who I'd prefer to face. Winston's aggressive mindset could be dangerous for a team lacking speed at cornerback; Olave is very capable of burning Patrick Peterson and Cameron Dantzler on deep routes. If Winston is on his game, he can be tough to stop. But that doesn't happen particularly often. Usually, Winston's presence leads to potential interceptions, sacks, and forced fumbles (from 2015 to 2019, Winston and Cousins led all QBs with 50 fumbles). Add in the element of him not being at 100 percent, health-wise, and it's possible the Vikings are hoping he's cleared to play on Sunday.
If Dalton does play, expect more checkdowns to Kamara and underneath routes to Michael Thomas (if he plays) and Jarvis Landry. The veteran Dalton won't wow you with his arm, but he'll likely take care of the football better and try to beat you by getting in a rhythm and sustaining drives. That could work, but it would also, in theory, give the Vikings' defense more opportunities to make a play and get off the field. There's always the Hill wild card to worry about, too.
Either way, it'll be interesting to see who starts at quarterback for the Saints on Sunday, and if the Vikings are able to take advantage of their style of play with a strong defensive performance.
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