Can Mullens, Vikings Find Explosive Plays Against Bengals' Struggling D?

The Minnesota Vikings' defense has allowed an NFL-low 54 explosive plays — defined as a run of 10+ yards or a pass of 20+ yards — in 2023. Their opponent on Saturday, the Cincinnati Bengals, have nearly doubled that number. The Bengals' defense has allowed 96 explosives this season, which is 11 more than any other team.

That discrepancy, if it holds, could be a big factor in this weekend's game between a pair of 7-6 teams looking to get into the playoffs.

Led by Brian Flores, the Vikings' defense has been incredible this season, ranking fifth in opponent EPA per play, sixth in DVOA, and fifth in scoring. Their ability to limit big plays has been a huge part of that success.

Even with Jake Browning at quarterback, though, the Bengals present some challenges as an offense. Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are among the best wide receiver duos in the NFL, while running backs Joe Mixon and Chase Brown are dangerous on the ground and as part of what Kevin O'Connell called "the best screen team in the NFL." Those two RBs had six catches for 126 yards and a touchdown against the Colts on Sunday, including gains of 54 (Brown) and 45 (Mixon) on screens.

It'll be critical for the Vikings' success to find ways to generate big plays on offense against a Bengals defense that has surrendered them all season. Cincinnati ranks in the bottom five in the league in both explosive runs allowed and explosive passes allowed. The Bengals have a solid front four, but they're young on the back end and lost their best defensive back (Jessie Bates III) in free agency this past offseason.

The Vikings have to find ways to get Nick Mullens some opportunities to find players like Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and Jordan Addison for chunks of 20-plus through the air. And with Alexander Mattison looking unlikely to play, it'll be important to try to get Ty Chandler the ball in space.

O'Connell clearly believes Mullens gives the Vikings the best chance to move the football this weekend.

"Where it looks like his arm strength is really coming to life is his suddenness, his compact delivery, his ability to play grounded and get the ball out in rhythm, on time, be a great decision-maker, be accurate with the football," he said. "And then the football IQ and understanding of — 'This is the coverage, this is what we're hunting on the play, did we get that look, did we not, where's my progression starting, continuing and finishing? That's where Nick's comfort in our offense really came to life late in the game (against the Raiders)."

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