Five Big Minnesota Vikings Questions Ahead of the 2023 Season

At long last, the Vikings will kick off the 2023 regular season against the Buccaneers on Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium.

Internally, there's a lot of optimism surrounding this football team and what it can accomplish after some key offseason changes. Externally, the prevailing expectation is that regression is going to hit like a ton of bricks in Minnesota. The reality is that these Vikings, in year two under Kevin O'Connell, could win between 6 and 12 games this year without either extreme being particularly surprising.

Before the season kicks off this weekend, here are five big questions that will determine this group's success.

1. How much will O'Connell's offense improve in year two?

In his first year as head coach, O'Connell led a Vikings offense that was explosive and dangerous, but not always efficient or consistent. Minnesota finished seventh in yards per game and eighth in scoring, which were strong marks. But largely because they had one of the league's least-efficient rushing attacks, the Vikings ranked just 20th in offensive DVOA and 18th in EPA per play. They would frequently start a game with a beautifully-scripted touchdown drive on the opening series, then go into a long lull before finding a way to win in crunch time.

This offseason, O'Connell's focus was on building a more consistent, balanced attack. The Vikings brought in elite blocking tight end Josh Oliver to help improve their run game, which will now be led by Alexander Mattison. They retained other talented run-blockers in Garrett Bradbury and C.J. Ham. Then they drafted Jordan Addison in the first round to add another dynamic playmaker who can get open against single coverage when teams are focusing on Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson.

O'Connell now has the weapons at his disposal to mix in all kinds of personnel groupings. He wants to stay on schedule with the running game, be multiple out of various looks, and continue to be explosive through Jefferson and company in the passing game. Another important factor is that O'Connell, Kirk Cousins, and so many other returning starters feel that they're simply more comfortable in this scheme in year two. On paper, it feels like this has a chance to be a top-five unit.

But there's one major question mark...

2. Is the interior offensive line good enough?

The glaring area of concern on this Vikings offense — beyond the obvious discussions about Cousins' ceiling — is the interior trio up front. With a quarterback like Cousins, interior pass protection is critically important because he's so limited as a creator outside the pocket. Those three players — Ezra Cleveland, Bradbury, and Ed Ingram — were the main reason Cousins was hit more than any other QB in the league last year. Watching the Netflix Quarterback show this offseason made it clear that Cousins taking that kind of weekly punishment just isn't sustainable.

Even though it was an obvious weakness, the Vikings decided not to make any changes to their interior OL this offseason. They brought back Bradbury, who had a breakout 2022 in a contract year but will never be particularly stout as a pass blocker. They did work out veteran guard Dalton Risner, a proven pass protector, but decided not to sign him (though that could eventually change). The Vikings are hoping Cleveland takes a Bradbury-like step forward in a contract year and that Ingram makes a huge leap after leading all linemen in pressures allowed as a rookie. Those are far from sure things.

Until proven otherwise, this is still a weakness that could hold back the entire offense. I imagine the Vikings' coaches will be paying close attention to their guard play to see if they need to make an early-season change, whether that's giving backup Blake Brandel a shot or making Risner a strong offer (or both?).

3. Can Brian Flores fix this defense on his own?

Last season, the Vikings' abysmal defense was the team's undoing. They didn't have the talent to succeed in Ed Donatell's passive scheme and the coordinator never made meaningful adjustments, leading to a 31st-place finish in yards allowed and equally poor advanced metrics. Giants QB Daniel Jones had three 300-yard passing games in 18 outings all year; two of them came at U.S. Bank Stadium, including in Minnesota's disappointing one-and-done playoff contest.

Shortly after the season ended, O'Connell fired Donatell and replaced him with Brian Flores, who is the polar opposite in terms of scheme and philosophy. Flores' past stops in New England and Miami made it clear that he's going to bring the heat at opposing quarterbacks — and that has played out as expected throughout offseason practices and preseason games. Flores' defense is all about creating chaos and confusion by disguising which players will be blitzing on any given play. He's going to be everything the Vikings' offense strives to be: Varied, multiple, explosive, and aggressive.

But can Flores, basically on his own, take the Vikings' defense from awful to decent? The roster lost Patrick Peterson, Za'Darius Smith, Dalvin Tomlinson, and Eric Kendricks, with Byron Murphy Jr. and Marcus Davenport as the main additions. Major questions exist regarding the secondary (more on that in a second) and interior pass rush. There's a lot riding on the success of Flores' scheme, and it's worth noting that his first Dolphins defense in 2019 was one of the league's worst units before taking a huge leap in 2020.

4. Will the cornerback play be a disaster?

The Vikings' cornerback room is to the defense what the interior O-line is to the offense. This is a young, largely unproven group that is the most obvious weakness and X-factor for Flores in 2023. Because he's going to bring all kinds of pressure, the corners are often going to be put on an island. For the entire concept to work, those players need to hold up in coverage long enough for Danielle Hunter and Davenport and the blitzers to get home.

Murphy was a nice pickup as a still-ascending 25-year-old with four years of starting experience already under his belt who can play inside and outside. The other four cornerbacks currently on the active roster have made a combined total of three NFL starts. Akayleb Evans, a second-year player, is the other every-down starter; he showed flashes during a rookie season marred by concussions but has a lot to prove this year. Rookie Mekhi Blackmon, a third-round pick, will join Murphy and Evans on the field in nickel groupings; the USC product had a nice training camp, but he's even more of an unknown quantity than Evans.

Rounding out the depth are Andrew Booth Jr. — a second-year player on the verge of earning the dreaded "bust" label — and veteran Joejuan Williams, who is on the practice squad. Although it's a group with some theoretical upside, it's also a group with an extremely low floor. Cornerback play could make or break Flores' entire defense this year.

5. Can the Vikings stave off regression?

The first thing any national analyst brings up when talking about the 2023 Vikings is the word regression. They went 11-0 in one-score games last year, so that inevitably won't happen again. That's how it works. It's understandable.

But just how much weight should we give to the concepts of regression and luck when projecting the Vikings' season? Yes, they had a bunch of bounces go their way in 2022, which isn't sustainable. Nonetheless, is it possible that they might once again finish with a winning record in one-score games due to Cousins' experience in those spots and O'Connell's extreme emphasis on being "situational masters?" The Vikings spend significant time every week preparing their players for all kinds of late-game circumstances that could arise — and how to handle them.

Realistically, the Vikings don't need to win 13 games again to claim a second consecutive NFC North title. This is a team that could take strides on both sides of the ball, actually win some games by multiple scores for a change, and still wind up with fewer wins than last year. That's O'Connell's hope: That the Vikings improve enough to remain contenders despite some inescapable one-score losses.

It's just about time for a fascinating season to begin.

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