NFC Playoff Picture Entering Week 15: Vikings Among Crowded Pack of 6-7 Teams

The Vikings kept their playoff hopes alive by beating the Steelers on Thursday night to get to 6-7, but there's still a lot more work to do. Had they taken care of business against the winless Lions the week prior — or pulled out a victory in any of their other heartbreaking losses to the Bengals, Cardinals, Cowboys, or Ravens — they'd be in a very solid position right now. But they didn't, so their margin for error remains quite thin heading into the four-game final stretch.

Right now, the Vikings' playoff odds are somewhere between 29 percent (FiveThirtyEight, ESPN FPI) and 37 percent (DVOA). They're sitting in the No. 8 seed, ranking second out of five 6-7 teams based on conference record and other tiebreakers. Washington, which is one game ahead of the Vikings in conference record, currently holds the No. 7 seed.

The Saints and Eagles both have fairly easy remaining schedules, so the Vikings will likely have to go 3-1 down the stretch to fend off the other contenders for the No. 7 seed. I'd be surprised if Washington or the Falcons remain factors a couple weeks from now, as both have tough schedules and are lacking in overall talent.

For the Vikings, it starts on Monday night in Chicago with the first of two absolute must-win games against the 4-9 Bears, a team that put up a solid fight against the Packers this past weekend. If the Vikings can beat the Bears twice in the next four weeks, they'll likely only have to manage a split against the Rams and Packers to reach the postseason. Dropping either Bears game would be disastrous unless the Vikings can pull off the unlikely feat of beating both the Rams and the Packers (for a second time).

"We definitely feel that we can play with the best of ‘em," Patrick Peterson said. "We just, it was a couple of mistakes that cost us those games. That’s just coming down to us being a better situational football team and having those situations throughout the season is going to continue to make us a better situational football team. There’s four games left in the season. It’s not too late to learn from those mistakes but at the same time, those situations are on tape. Like Zim said earlier, we compete at a high level each and every week, we just have to clean up the minor mistakes that’s costing us those losses but that shouldn’t cost us losses for the remainder of the season. It can’t be no more, ‘My bads,’ it can’t be no more, ‘I shoulda been there, I shoulda made that play.’ We have to be there, we have to make those plays because everything counts."

If every game plays out as expected in Week 15 — which is far from a sure thing in the NFL — the Vikings would be back in possession of the No. 7 seed a week from now. Washington is a 4.5-point underdog in Philadelphia on Sunday, the Falcons are 9.5-point 'dogs in San Francisco, the Saints are 10.5-point dogs in Tampa, and the Vikings are 3.5-point favorites in Chicago.

If the favorites win all of those games, the Vikings and Eagles would be the two 7-7 teams tied for the seventh spot. Both would have a 5-4 conference record, so the next tiebreaker is common games. The Eagles are 2-3 against the 49ers, Cowboys, Panthers, Lions, and Chargers, while the Vikings are 3-3 against that group, so Minnesota would win the tiebreaker.

All that the Vikings need to focus on is playing their best football and beating the Bears on Monday night, then going from there. They're in control of their own destiny.

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