The NFL Draft Will Be More Unpredictable than Ever This Year

The 2020 NFL Draft promises to be more unpredictable than any in recent memory. Some players are go shockingly high compared to projections, and some players will go shockingly low. The only thing we know for sure is that it's going to be a lot of fun.
The reason for the unpredictability is that this year's pre-draft process has been unlike any we've ever seen. The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the cancellation of pro days, top-30 visits, and other traditional parts of the weeks and months leading into the draft.
The lack of pro days is particularly notable, as that tends to be where NFL evaluators talk among themselves and formulate consensus opinions on prospects. Without that forum, people around the NFL are expecting their to be a lot less groupthink in this year's draft. The lack of pro days and physical visits means teams are going to be relying primarily on their grades of players' tape, and those could differ greatly from team to team.
I believe we'll see less groupthink in the draft this year. At pro days, coaches & scouts (from diff teams) spend so much time around each other & they end up forming a consensus on players. Not the case this year. Some will be shocked at how high/low these guys go.
— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) April 17, 2020
Given the thousands of mock drafts and big boards that have graced the internet, the public may think it has some idea of where players are supposed to be taken. But the reality is that those projections are based on less real information than ever before. There are going to be some big-time surprises.
I had a GM tell me, “The media is wronger about mock drafts this year than you guys have ever been.” Point being, players are going to be taken in places no one expects. https://t.co/oyDHSndqkl
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 17, 2020
The inability for teams to do their own medical evaluations on prospects with injury histories will be another interesting factor. Will the lack of medical information cause players like Tua Tagovailoa and K'Lavon Chaisson to fall further than expected? Teams may wind up taking safer picks on players they know are healthy and they know are likely to be able to help them in 2020.
This year, the only thing we can predict for sure is unpredictability.
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Will Ragatz is a senior writer for Vikings On SI, who also covers the Twins, Timberwolves, Gophers, and other Minnesota teams. He is a credentialed Minnesota Vikings beat reporter, covering the team extensively at practices, games and throughout the NFL draft and free agency period. Ragatz attended Northwestern University, where he studied at the prestigious Medill School of Journalism. During his time as a student, he covered Northwestern Wildcats football and basketball for SB Nation’s Inside NU, eventually serving as co-editor-in-chief in his junior year. In the fall of 2018, Will interned in Sports Illustrated’s newsroom in New York City, where he wrote articles on Major League Baseball, college football, and college basketball for SI.com.
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