Vikings Have 12th-Easiest 2020 Schedule Based on Projected Win Totals

There has been plenty of recent discussion about the difficulty of the Vikings' 2020 schedule, much of it stemming from the fact that their strength of schedule is tied for 10th-toughest based on 2019 records. The Vikings' 16 upcoming opponents went 131-123-2 last season, good for a winning percentage of 0.516.

However, using 2019 data isn't the best way to measure 2020 strength of schedule because it doesn't account for how teams changed in the offseason. The more accurate measure is to look at projected win totals for 2020. For example, the Buccaneers went 7-9 last year, but after signing Tom Brady, Tampa is projected by Vegas oddsmakers to win 9.5 or 10 games this season.

Jason Lisk of TeamRankings.com recently compiled every team's projected win totals from four major sportsbooks – DraftKings, FanDuel, Westgate, and William Hill – and averaged them out to create a more accurate strength of schedule ranking. In this ranking, the Vikings actually have the 21st-toughest schedule this year, also known as the 12th-easiest. Their opponents have an average projected wins total of 128.4. You can view the full list here.

The team that has the biggest negative disparity from 2019 wins to 2020 projected wins is the Green Bay Packers, who the Vikings play twice. After winning 13 games last year, the four sportsbooks give the Packers 8.5, 9.0, 9.0, and 9.5 projected wins in 2020 for an average of 9.0.

The Saints also go from 13 wins last season to 10.38 average projected wins, the Texans go from 10 to 7.5, and the Seahawks from 11 to 9.25. On the other end of the spectrum, the Lions go from 3.5 wins (their tie counts as 0.5 wins) to 6.63 and the Bucs go from 7 to 9.63. Here is the full list of differences between 2019 wins and average projected wins, ranked from fallers to risers.

Green Bay Packers (13 wins in 2019, 9.0 projected wins in 2020) = -4.0
New Orleans Saints (13 wins in 2019, 10.38 projected wins in 2020) = -2.62
Houston Texans (10 wins in 2019, 7.5 projected wins in 2020) = -2.5
Seattle Seahawks (11 wins in 2019, 9.25 projected wins in 2020) = -1.75
Jacksonville Jaguars (6 wins in 2019, 4.75 projected wins in 2020) = -1.25
Tennessee Titans (9 wins in 2019, 8.5 projected wins in 2020) = -0.5
Chicago Bears (8 wins in 2019, 8.0 projected wins in 2020) = 0
Atlanta Falcons (7 wins in 2019, 7.38 projected wins in 2020) = +0.38
Carolina Panthers (5 wins in 2019, 5.5 projected wins in 2020) = +0.5
Indianapolis Colts (7 wins in 2019, 8.63 projected wins in 2020) = +1.63
Dallas Cowboys (8 wins in 2019, 9.63 projected wins in 2020) = +1.63
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7 wins in 2019, 9.63 projected wins in 2020) = +2.63
Detroit Lions (3.5 wins in 2019 [one tie], 6.63 projected wins in 2020) = +3.13

When you add all of those differences up, counting the Packers and Lions twice, Vikings opponents are projected to combine for 3.6 fewer wins compared to their 2019 total. That's how you get from 132 wins (based on the 131-123-2 record and counting the Lions' two ties as a half-win each) to 128.4, which takes the Vikings' strength of schedule from T-10th to 21st.

When looking to Vegas's views of the future, the Vikings' schedule doesn't actually appear to be all that bad.

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