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Vikings-Lions Predictions, Picks: Who Wins NFC North Showdown in Week 16?

The Vikings and Lions are set to battle at U.S. Bank Stadium on Christmas Eve.
Will Ragatz|
Vikings-Lions Predictions, Picks: Who Wins NFC North Showdown in Week 16?
Vikings-Lions Predictions, Picks: Who Wins NFC North Showdown in Week 16?

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Minnesota Vikings

There's a lot on the line for the Vikings on Sunday afternoon when they take on the Lions during a "Winter Whiteout" game at U.S. Bank Stadium. Not only will they be looking to stay alive in the NFC North title race, they'll also be hoping to keep their spot in the wild card hunt.

A victory for the Vikings would mean they stay in the NFC's No. 6 seed and have an outside shot at pulling off an improbable comeback for the division title. A loss, paired with a Seahawks win over the 5-9 Titans, would have them on the outside of the playoff picture for the first time in a while.

The Lions are coming off a 42-point explosion against the Broncos and are 3.5-point road favorites in this one. So who wins on Sunday? Let's start with my prediction and then take a look at some picks from other analysts.

Will's pick: Lions 30, Vikings 24

2023 picks record: 9-5

This feels like a really tough spot for the Vikings. Brian Flores' defense has been outstanding this season, but the Lions' offense is one of the league's best. Ben Johnson is a great offensive mind and Jared Goff has all kinds of weapons at his disposal in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, and David Montgomery. The Vikings being without top cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. (and possibly top DT Harrison Phillips) is a significant loss. I think Nick Mullens and Justin Jefferson and company will be able to score some points against the Lions, but not quite enough to pull off the win.

Other predictions

Bill Bender, Sporting News: Lions 27, Vikings 20

The Lions can clinch their first NFC North championship with a victory against the Vikings. It's not about the home-and-road splits with Jared Goff. It's about turnovers. Detroit is 8-1 in games with one turnover or less, and the Vikings have a -6 turnover margin and a third-string quarterback in Nick Mullens facing that Detroit pass rush. 

Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Lions 24, Vikings 20

The Lions got their running and passing groove back together again in ripping into the Broncos at home in Week 15. Jared Goff lit it up and although he's not the same on the road, keep in mind this is a key division game in familiar controlled environment. Minnesota can slow down the run a little vs. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, but it just doesn't have the consistent coverage to hold up well vs. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and others downfield. The Lions take this game and put away the division title before the Week 19 rematch in Detroit.

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Vikings 23, Lions 20

The Lions can lock up the division by winning this game. It won't be easy. The Vikings defense had big issues against the Bengals last week, but I think it will bounce back here. The Vikings will get after Jared Goff to slow the offense and stay in this and win it late.

NFL.com: 4 of 5 pickers take the Lions

One wrinkle that gives me pause here: Jared Goff's performance in his two previous games against Brian Flores-led defenses (54.5% completion rate, 292 yards per game, one TD, three picks, two fumbles lost). Another: The Lions' disappearing act in their last divisional road date, a 15-point loss at Chicago in Week 14. While that's not quite enough in the pause department to get me to pick Minnesota in this one, I think Detroit will be tested more than it was in Week 15's laugher against Denver.

Bleacher Report Staff: Lions 28, Vikings 22

One thing the Vikings do is hang. They haven't lost a game by more than a field goal since Week 5 and haven't lost by more than one score this season, while the familiar and flawed Lions have just one convincing win since the start of November. At home, the Vikings keep this close if not pull off the upset.

Mike Florio, PFT: Vikings 24, Lions 23

Chris Simms, PFT: Lions 28, Vikings 24

Seth Walder, ESPN: Lions 24, Vikings 20

Eric Moody, ESPN: Lions 31, Vikings 21

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Will Ragatz
WILL RAGATZ

Will Ragatz is a senior writer for Vikings On SI, who also covers the Twins, Timberwolves, Gophers, and other Minnesota teams. He is a credentialed Minnesota Vikings beat reporter, covering the team extensively at practices, games and throughout the NFL draft and free agency period. Ragatz attended Northwestern University, where he studied at the prestigious Medill School of Journalism. During his time as a student, he covered Northwestern Wildcats football and basketball for SB Nation’s Inside NU, eventually serving as co-editor-in-chief in his junior year. In the fall of 2018, Will interned in Sports Illustrated’s newsroom in New York City, where he wrote articles on Major League Baseball, college football, and college basketball for SI.com.

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