Inside The Vikings

Vikings Win the NFC North in NFL.com's Simulations of 2020 Season

The average of 100,000 simulations by Cynthia Frelund has the Vikings winning the NFC North this season.
Will Ragatz|
Vikings Win the NFC North in NFL.com's Simulations of 2020 Season
Vikings Win the NFC North in NFL.com's Simulations of 2020 Season

If you simulate the upcoming 2020 NFL season 100,000 times, the Vikings come out as winners of the NFC North. At least, according to one model.

NFL.com analytics expert Cynthia Frelund's simulations use the "specific contextual data" of every single matchup, and she simulates each game 100,000 times to get the most accurate results.

In Frelund's 2020 early 2020 simulations, the Vikings average 9.0 wins, which is enough to win the division. The Packers are just behind at 8.8 wins, the Bears are at 7.9, and the Lions are down at 6.0 wins.

"The Minnesota Vikings made the most selections in the NFL Draft since it became a seven-round event in 1994, with 15 picks," Frelund said. "My model rates all of their offseason moves very highly."

Frelund's date is right on line with the Vegas projections, which also have the Vikings at a consensus of nine wins as their over/under total.

A different recent simulation isn't quite as high on the Vikings, as it has them coming in second to the Packers in the division. Pro Football Focus simulated the season 10,000 times "with the help of our PFF Elo rating system, our grades and some market data."

PFF's math projects the Vikings to win 8.4 games, which is narrowly behind the Packers at 8.7. Interestingly, they project the NFC North to be a tight, four-team race, as both the Bears and Lions aren't too far behind at 7.4 projected wins apiece.

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Will Ragatz
WILL RAGATZ

Will Ragatz is a senior writer for Vikings On SI, who also covers the Twins, Timberwolves, Gophers, and other Minnesota teams. He is a credentialed Minnesota Vikings beat reporter, covering the team extensively at practices, games and throughout the NFL draft and free agency period. Ragatz attended Northwestern University, where he studied at the prestigious Medill School of Journalism. During his time as a student, he covered Northwestern Wildcats football and basketball for SB Nation’s Inside NU, eventually serving as co-editor-in-chief in his junior year. In the fall of 2018, Will interned in Sports Illustrated’s newsroom in New York City, where he wrote articles on Major League Baseball, college football, and college basketball for SI.com.

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