Vikings-Packers Predictions: Who Wins The Border Battle Rematch in Green Bay?

Since Aaron Rodgers became the Packers' starting quarterback in 2008, the Vikings have only swept their bitter divisional rivals twice.

The first time came in 2009, when Brett Favre got revenge on his old team with a pair of victories. The second was in 2017, when Rodgers suffered a collarbone injury on a hit from Anthony Barr early in the first game and didn't play in the rematch. That one doesn't feel like it counts in the same way as '09. In both of those seasons, the Vikings reached the NFC championship game.

On Sunday, the 12-3 Vikings have a chance to sweep a Packers team with a healthy Rodgers for the first time in 13 years. They're headed to Lambeau Field for the first time in the Kevin O'Connell era with an opportunity to maintain their hold on the NFC's No. 2 seed and, perhaps just as notably, all but knock Green Bay out of postseason contention. The 7-8 Packers, who have won three in a row to stay alive, desperately need a win on New Year's Day.

Interestingly enough, the Vikings have won three straight games in the series when Kirk Cousins has played. He missed last January's game at Lambeau while on the COVID list, leaving Sean Mannion to start in a blowout loss. Rodgers is 16-10-1 against the Vikings as a starter, but only 3-4-1 in games against Cousins.

The Packers are 3.5-point favorites, continuing the trend of Vegas not being particularly high on these Vikings — who are a stunning 11-0 in one-score games and have just a plus-5 point differential. Minnesota's lone multi-score victory, though, came against this Packers team at U.S. Bank Stadium back in Week 1, when Justin Jefferson torched their secondary for nine catches, 184 yards, and two touchdowns.

This should be a fun one. Going beyond the stakes for both teams, there are plenty of interesting storylines. This week, Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander called Jefferson's Week 1 performance a "fluke," which the Vikings' superstar undoubtedly caught wind of. Za'Darius Smith is playing his first game in Green Bay since leaving the Packers this offseason. Dalvin Cook has had huge outings in the last two Cousins-led games at Lambeau.

So who wins this Week 17 showdown that will be seen by basically the entire country? Let's start with my prediction and then dive into some picks from national analysts.

Will's pick: Packers 26, Vikings 23

2022 record: 11-4

I've gone back and forth on this one a ton this week, because I really could see it playing out in a bunch of different ways. I think the Vikings — led by elite players like Jefferson, Za'Darius Smith, Danielle Hunter, and Christian Darrisaw — are the better team. But the Packers have looked much more like themselves over the last few weeks and have more to play for in this game. They've got the home-field advantage, the desperation that comes with needing a win to stay alive, and the two-time defending MVP in Aaron Rodgers. With Kenny Clark and Jarran Reed, Green Bay should be able to exploit the Vikings' interior offensive line's struggles in pass protection. And the bottom line is that it's really hard to sweep a good divisional opponent. So while I can absolutely envision the Vikings winning their 13th game on Sunday, I think the Packers are the safer pick.

National predictions

Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Vikings 27, Packers 24

The battle of narratives collide when the team “no one wants to face in the playoffs” squares off against the team “worse than its record.” The Packers' defense has improved lately, but the Vikings are built to end this Green Bay story before it gets started. I’ll believe Minnesota can lose a close game when it actually happens, and this is destined to be a close game.

Bleacher Report Staff: Packers 27, Vikings 23

The Vikings' defense is atrocious and will keep the Packers in the game. Minnesota is 11-0 in one-score games this season, but I just have a feeling that the streak comes to an end here, as Green Bay pulls out a close one by more than a field goal.

Mike Florio, PFT: Vikings 30, Packers 27

Weather shouldn’t be much of an issue, and Minnesota surely realizes the value of knocking a division rival out of the playoff hunt. Yes, another close win for the Vikings.

Michael David Smith, PFT: Packers 28, Vikings 20

The Packers are playing excellent football right now and would be a very dangerous wild card team if they make it. They’ll take a step closer on Sunday.

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Packers 31, Vikings 24

This is a huge game for the Packers. If they win out, they can be a playoff team. The Vikings still have a chance at the top seed in the conference. But survival is more motivating than a seed. The Packers lost to the Vikings earlier this year, but I think Aaron Rodgers will have a field day against a bad Vikings defense. Packers win it.

Mark Craig, Minneapolis Star Tribune: Packers 34, Vikings 31

Sorry, Purple Nation, but you aren't getting rid of Aaron Rodgers this easily. In what could be an elimination game for the Packers, Rodgers takes advantage of Lambeau Field and a mostly QB-friendly defense to keep alive the possibility of a third meeting come wild-card weekend.

Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Packers 30, Vikings 17

The Vikings have been living on the edge but their "luck" in winning 11 one-possession games without a loss this season is residue of great offensive design and timely defense. Green Bay is feeling it with Aaron Rodgers and this is a get-well game for its passing and running games at Lambeau. The Packers will be relentless to rip their rivals and set up a revenge playoff clinching scenario in Week 18 vs. the Lions.

Seth Walder, ESPN: Vikings 27, Giants 21

Eric Moody, ESPN: Vikings 28, Giants 24

What to watch for:

Justin Jefferson

needs 209 yards over the last two games to set the NFL single-season receiving yardage record. He might not need both games, considering what he did against the Packers in Week 1 when he caught 11 passes for 184 yards and two touchdowns. The Packers allowed a pair of 100-yard receivers last week at Miami (Waddle, 143 and Hill, 103). However, Jefferson has been held under 60 receiving yards in both career games at Lambeau Field (26 yards in 2020 and 58 yards last season). —

Rob Demovsky

Bold prediction:

The first half of this game won't matter. During the Packers' three-game winning streak, they have a minus-9 point differential in the first half but have outscored opponents 45-9 in the second half. And by now, we all know the story of the Vikings' season. They've had eight fourth-quarter comebacks and played in 11 games decided by one score, winning all 11. Sunday's game at Lambeau Field will be in doubt until the final minutes. —

Kevin Seifert

What's at stake:

The Packers enter Week 17 with a 37% chance of making the playoffs per ESPN's FPI. That moves to 61% with a win or drops to 5% with a loss. They can be eliminated on Sunday if they lose and either the Lions or Commanders win. Minnesota already won the NFC North, but has just a 1% chance to take the top seed in the conference.

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