Inside The Vikings

Vikings Playoff Odds Have Plummeted, Top-10 Draft Pick Not Impossible

The Vikings have zero margin for error if they're going to make the postseason.
Will Ragatz|
Vikings Playoff Odds Have Plummeted, Top-10 Draft Pick Not Impossible
Vikings Playoff Odds Have Plummeted, Top-10 Draft Pick Not Impossible

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Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings' playoff hopes are fully on the ropes.

A couple weeks ago, they were projected as high as 75-80 percent to make the postseason. Now, after gut-wrenching one-score losses against the Bengals and Lions, those odds are down to 31.5 percent (via DVOA) or 19.2 percent (ESPN's FPI), depending on which site you prefer.

This Sunday night's game against the Packers — who are also 7-8 — is essentially an elimination game. The Vikings wouldn't technically be eliminated with a loss if either the Seahawks or Rams also lose, but they would need a win over the Lions in Week 18 and a ton of help to sneak in.

If the Vikings can win their last two and finish 9-8, they'll have a good shot to be in the dance. If they split the last two and finish 8-9, they're going to need plenty of help. It works in their favor that they have head-to-head tiebreakers over the Falcons and Saints, but it's the Rams and Seahawks and Packers that they really need to worry about.

The Rams are at the Giants this weekend and then at the 49ers in Week 18. San Francisco may still be fighting for the No. 1 seed in the season's final week. The Seahawks host the Steelers and then finish at Arizona. The Packers host the Bears in Week 18 after this weekend's showdown in Minneapolis.

Here's one other thing for Vikings fans to keep in mind: They're not out of the running for a potential top-ten draft pick. If the free fall continues and they finish 7-10, they could end up with a pick somewhere in the 8-12 range. ESPN's FPI projects them to have a 20 percent chance to pick in the top ten.

The optimistic fan can look at Sunday's game as a win-win — either the Vikings beat their border rivals and stay alive in the playoff hunt or they lose and improve their draft positioning.

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Will Ragatz
WILL RAGATZ

Will Ragatz is a senior writer for Vikings On SI, who also covers the Twins, Timberwolves, Gophers, and other Minnesota teams. He is a credentialed Minnesota Vikings beat reporter, covering the team extensively at practices, games and throughout the NFL draft and free agency period. Ragatz attended Northwestern University, where he studied at the prestigious Medill School of Journalism. During his time as a student, he covered Northwestern Wildcats football and basketball for SB Nation’s Inside NU, eventually serving as co-editor-in-chief in his junior year. In the fall of 2018, Will interned in Sports Illustrated’s newsroom in New York City, where he wrote articles on Major League Baseball, college football, and college basketball for SI.com.

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