Vikings-Saints Predictions, Picks: Which 5-4 Team Wins in Week 10?

Josh Dobbs and the Vikings hosting Derek Carr and the Saints on Sunday is quietly one of the best matchups of the NFL's Week 10 slate. It's one of just three games this weekend where both teams involved are above .500, along with Ravens-Browns and Jaguars-49ers.

There's no shortage of stakes and storylines in this one.

For the Vikings, Dobbs will be looking to follow his incredible debut with a strong performance in his first start as Minnesota's quarterback (and his U.S. Bank Stadium debut). If the Vikings extend their winning streak to five and the Chargers beat the Lions in Los Angeles, they'll suddenly be just half a game back in the NFC North. Of course, they could also end up 2.5 games back by Sunday night.

The Saints, meanwhile, have won two in a row and are looking to stay atop the NFC South, where they hold a one-game lead over the Falcons. It's been an up and down season for Dennis Allen's team, but they have a great defense and can guarantee themselves a home playoff game if they hold off Atlanta and Tampa Bay in the division.

New Orleans is favored by three on the road. So who wins? Let's start with my prediction and then take a look at some picks from other analysts.

Will's pick: Vikings 23, Saints 20

2023 picks record: 6-3

This feels like it could be a classic let-down spot for the Vikings, who are coming off an exhausting, emotional win in Atlanta. After their thrilling road win in Buffalo last year, they came home and got demolished by the Cowboys. But there are a few key differences here. For one, this Saints team isn't nearly as good as that Cowboys squad. Also, these Vikings are 5-4 and still hungry to continue their turnaround from a slow start, whereas last year's team was 8-1 after the Bills game. This group is also playing much, much better on defense thanks to Brian Flores' presence. So I'm going to buy into this winning streak moving to five. I think the Vikings' defense keeps playing well and Dobbs' dual-threat ability helps Minnesota win another close one.

Other predictions

Mark Craig, Star Tribune: Vikings 24, Saints 19

The Saints had a 5-0 turnover advantage and one penalty and darn near lost to the Bears. At home. Double Down on Dobbs & Defense.

Bill Bender, Sporting News: Saints 28, Vikings 25

This is a battle of 5-4 teams in the NFC playoff hunt. The Vikings are 1-3 S/U at home, which is surprising considering their reputation there. Dobbs led the comeback against the Falcons. Can he do it against another NFC South team? The Saints have not beat a team that currently has a winning record, but they are 3-2 S/U on the road. The Vikings won 28-25 last season. This time, the Saints return the favor.

Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Vikings 24, Saints 23

Josh Dobbs has saved Minnesota's season and at 5-4, it is very much in the NFC wild-card and division mix after recovering well from an 0-3 start. Also at 5-4, New Orleans is back in control of a weak NFC South. These teams are even and the Vikings' defense remains on the uptick under Brian Flores, while the Saints' defense has holes, especially vs. mobile QBs such as Dobbs. Derek Carr on the road gets roughed up enough.

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Vikings 25, Saints 20

The Vikings pulled off a shocking win when Joshua Dobbs came off the bench to beat Atlanta last week after being traded to the team last Tuesday. Now that he's been there for a little more time, he should be more comfortable. The Saints have won their last two as the offense has come alive some. But they will be challenged here by the Minnesota defense. Look for the Vikings to get another victory with Dobbs.

NFL.com: 4 of 5 pickers take the Saints

Bleacher Report Staff: Vikings 26, Saints 23

Mike Florio, PFT: Vikings 30, Saints 27

Chris Simms, PFT: Saints 24, Vikings 17

Seth Walder, ESPN: Saints 20, Vikings 17

Eric Moody, ESPN: Saints 24, Vikings 21

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