Vikings Linebacker Troy Dye Given Surprising Odds for Defensive Rookie of the Year

The Vikings fourth-round pick has better odds than you'd expect.

Vegas seems to think that former Oregon linebacker Troy Dye is going to make an immediate impact in Minnesota, perhaps even greater than first-round pick Jeff Gladney.

Popular online sportsbook Bovada has given Dye +5500 odds to win the Defensive Rookie of the Year award, which is tied for 17th-best. That's notable when you consider that Dye, a fourth-round pick, was the 64th defensive player taken in the 2020 draft. Gladney is not among the 22 players given odds by the site.

Dye is certainly a talented player who could have a bright future with the Vikings; I listed him as one of my favorite picks the team made on Day 3 of the draft. Dye led the Ducks in tackles for four straight years and was highly productive in other statistical categories during his career: five interceptions, 14 passes defended, 13 sacks, four forced fumbles, 28.5 non-sack tackles for loss. He's an athletic, versatile linebacker who played through multiple injuries during his career and has the traits to develop into an NFL starter.

The issue with giving Dye even a remote shot at the DROY award is that he's unlikely to step into a major role as a rookie. The Vikings have Eric Kendricks, Anthony Barr, and Eric Wilson set as their top three linebackers for the 2020 season. Even that third LB job isn't a full-time role, as the Vikings are frequently in nickel formations with five defensive backs plus Kendricks and Barr.

Assuming Dye can beat out the likes of Cameron Smith, DeMarquis Gates, and Ben Gedeon for the fourth LB role, he'll see occasional snaps on defense. But his biggest immediate impact will likely come on special teams, so I don't understand the logic from Vegas here. Wilson is a free agent after this season and Barr hasn't exactly performed up to his contract of late, so there's a path to Dye emerging in future seasons. I just don't think he sees a ton of playing time in 2020 unless someone in front of him gets hurt.

I'd give Gladney a much better shot at winning defensive rookie of the year than Dye, just because he has a clear path to a starting role and has the talent to theoretically wind up with a bunch of interceptions. Even Cameron Dantzler and James Lynch would be better longshot bets given their chances of playing major roles.

Unsurprisingly, Washington DE Chase Young (No. 2 overall) and Arizona LB Isaiah Simmons are the clear favorites for this award.

On the other side of the ball, Bovada gives Vikings first-rounder Justin Jefferson the 15th-best odds at Offensive Rookie of the Year at +3500, which feels a little low. Jefferson is going to see plenty of playing time right away as the Vikings' No. 2 wide receiver. His college quarterback, Joe Burrow, is the obvious favorite for the OROY award.

You can check out all of Bovada's NFL player future odds right here.

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