The Favorites to Win the 2026 Ballon d’Or

After more than a decade of predictability thanks to Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo’s otherworldly brilliance, variety has returned to the Ballon d’Or.

Between the prestigious award’s inauguration and Ronaldo’s first triumph in 2008, there were only eight multi-time winners.

There have now been three different winners over the past four years, and 2026 has the potential to provide another surprise champion due to next summer’s World Cup, which will likely have a huge bearing on who lifts the golden ball aloft in Paris next September.

2018 winner Luka Modrić and 2023 winner Messi triumphed off the back of legacy-defining campaigns on the grandest stage the sport has to offer. So, with the North American spectacle in mind but other factors taken into account, too, here are Sports Illustrated’s leading contenders for the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

15. Raphinha—Barcelona/Spain

How sweet would this victory be?

Raphinha was rightly outraged by his perceived snub at the 2025 ceremony, as Barcelona’s domestic treble-winning talisman finished fifth despite arguably the single greatest individual campaign of the year.

It wasn’t only the Brazilian forward and his partner who were disgruntled, stacks of players and managers queued up to voice their disdain for the lowly treatment of a player who was so crucial to an all-conquering Barcelona side.

The Catalan giants have been even more reliant upon Raphinha this season, when collective glory could also warrant some much-deserved individual recognition.

14. Vinicius Junior—Real Madrid/Brazil

Vinicius Junior’s agonizing and ultimately unsuccessful brush with the Ballon d’Or will only spur him on. The Brazilian was denied the prize in 2024, beaten to the award by Rodri, and his decision to boycott the ceremony as a result certainly caused controversy.

But, on the pitch, there is no denying his brilliance. After an unhappy spell under Xabi Alonso to start the season, Real Madrid and their fleet-footed No. 7 have blossomed into the campaign following a change of manager.

Brazil’s success at the World Cup could put Vinicius Jr in contention for the 2026 vote.

13. Luis Díaz—Bayern Munich/Colombia

Luis Díaz often found himself overshadowed by Mohamed Salah during his time at Liverpool, but the Colombian has stepped fully into the spotlight since joining Bayern Munich in the summer of 2025.

He has enjoyed an outstanding debut season in Bavaria, quickly winning over supporters with his relentless work rate, direct running and eye for goal. At full speed, Díaz is one of the most electrifying wingers in world soccer, with both his finishing and creativity playing a major role in Bayern cruising to another Bundesliga title.

Even so, his Ballon d’Or hopes may ultimately be hindered by competition closer to home, with Bayern teammates Michael Olise and Harry Kane also firmly in contention. Colombia have qualified for the World Cup this summer, but are not widely expected to make a deep run, which could limit Díaz’s chances of mounting a serious challenge for the award.

12. Bruno Fernandes—Manchester United/Portugal

Bruno Fernandes is at a point in his career where he is no longer bound by the rules of mere mortals. “He doesn’t play football,” the legendary two-time Premier League champion Thierry Henry said of Manchester United’s captain, “he thinks it.”

Few players’ brains move quicker than the one orchestrating everything good at Old Trafford. Michael Carrick has transformed the club’s form but Fernandes has simply improved his already lofty level. No matter the chaos unfolding around him, the cerebral Portuguese playmaker has continued to thrive.

Should he, rather than Cristiano Ronaldo, spearhead an impressive World Cup campaign for Portugal after a strong domestic finish for Manchester United, there’s no reason why he couldn’t become the fourth Portuguese player to hoist aloft the golden ball.

11. Lionel Messi—Inter Miami/Argentina

The greatest to ever do it continues to emerge on social media timelines with his latest dazzling MLS sequences, but Messi isn’t a potential contender for next year’s award because of his Inter Miami exploits.

Instead of departing on a high after Qatar, Messi remains the central figure of the world’s finest national team. Argentina has since added another Copa América to rubber-stamp their dominance over South America, and the defending champion is gunning to become the first team since Brazil in 1962 to retain the World Cup.

If Messi, at 39, is able to inspire his country to that extraordinary feat, he may well be the frontrunner to claim a ninth Ballon d’Or.

10. Pedri—Barcelona/Spain

“Today is not a victory for me, it is for Spanish football,” Rodri said after claiming the prize in 2024. “For so many players who have not won it and have deserved it, like [Andrés] Iniesta, Xavi [Hernández], Iker [Casillas], Sergio Busquets, so many others. It is for Spanish football and for the figure of the midfielder.”

Xavi and Iniesta were doubtless worthy of Ballon d’Or success, and we shouldn’t be hesitant to suggest that Pedri has been performing at a level comparable to the apexes of the aforementioned Barcelona greats.

The Spaniard is arguably the best central midfielder in world soccer, and he’ll complement an already outstanding Spain triumvirate at next summer’s World Cup.

9. Erling Haaland—Manchester City/Norway

Erling Haaland would likely already have a Ballon d’Or to his name had Lionel Messi not produced perhaps the greatest individual World Cup campaign the sport has ever seen in 2022.

The Norwegian striker’s record-breaking 2022–23 season earned him a second-place finish in the voting, though he has since slipped to fifth and then 26th amid Manchester City’s collective struggles.

Even so, Haaland continues to score at a frightening rate for both club and country and looks on course for yet another Premier League Golden Boot—his third in four years.

With Norway set to appear at their first World Cup since 1998, this summer could finally provide Haaland with the global stage needed to reignite his Ballon d’Or charge.

8. Vitinha—Paris Saint-Germain/Portugal

Vitinha secured bronze in the 2025 Ballon d’Or for the part he played in Paris Saint-Germain’s domestic and European dominance. The midfielder was Luis Enrique’s tempo-setter in the engine room, dictating the domination with swagger and composure.

There are few playmakers capable of matching Vitinha’s productivity and importance, with PSG leaning on their maestro to conduct things on the grandest stages. He’s unflappable and deservedly made the podium during the most recent Ballon d’Or vote.

Portugal will be among the contenders for the World Cup this summer despite not being the favourites for the competition, with Vitinha critical to their chances of more major silverware.

He’s expected to be in the running for soccer’s most coveted individual prize once again.

7. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia—Paris Saint-Germain/Georgia

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is a sheer joy to watch.

PSG’s “Georgian Prince” possesses the balance of an Olympic gymnast combined with pace, strength, unpredictability and a level of two-footedness that very few players in world soccer can match—making him one of the game’s most devastating attacking weapons.

Because Georgia failed to qualify for the World Cup, “Kvaradona” lifting the Ballon d’Or remains far less likely than some of the other contenders who will have the chance to shine on the global stage this summer. In terms of pure ability, however, very few—if any—players in world soccer can rival him.

6. Kylian Mbappé—Real Madrid/France

Many would have expected Kylian Mbappé to already be a multiple-time Ballon d’Or winner by now after exploding onto the global stage in breathtaking fashion at the 2018 World Cup.

The French superstar has repeatedly delivered on the biggest occasions for his country and continues to produce elite numbers at club level with Real Madrid, finishing as La Liga’s top scorer last season and looking on course to claim the Pichichi Trophy once again this year.

A lack of major silverware in Madrid colors—through little fault of his own, it must be said—may once again stand in the way of Ballon d’Or glory, however, despite his brilliance remaining impossible to ignore.

5. Lamine Yamal—Barcelona/Spain

Yamal made a strong push in 2025 and many would argue that he was the best soccer player in the world last year, even if he wasn’t able to match the likes of Raphinha, Mohamed Salah and Ousmane Dembélé statistically.

The youngster is the epitome of a generation-defining talent who, on his current trajectory, will undoubtedly end his career as a multi-time Ballon d’Or winner and one of the greatest of all time.

Yamal has struggled with a groin injury in 2025–26, but he’s now back fooling La Liga left backs with his combination of confidence, ingenuity and outstanding technique.

He may well be celebrating his crowning glory at MetLife Stadium next July, and at 19, Yamal would become the youngest Ballon d’Or victor. He’s gotten used to smashing records, though.

4. Ousmane Dembélé—Paris Saint-Germain/France

Ousmané Dembélé — Dembélé will find it tough to repeat last season’s heroics. | Carlos Rodrigues/Getty Images

Reigning Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé endured a frustrating start to the 2025–26 season, struggling with both injuries and inconsistent form—but the Frenchman has rediscovered his spark at exactly the right moment for both PSG and his hopes of retaining soccer’s biggest individual prize.

Since the turn of the year, the lightning-quick winger has returned to something close to his devastating best, particularly in the Champions League. A brace against Liverpool in the quarterfinals followed by three goals across the semifinals against Bayern Munich proved pivotal in firing PSG into back-to-back finals.

Whether he can claim a second consecutive Ballon d’Or, however, may ultimately come down to what happens with France this summer. Will Dembélé fade into the background alongside fellow stars Kylian Mbappé and Michael Olise, or will he seize the spotlight for himself and become the face of France’s World Cup campaign?

3. Declan Rice—Arsenal/England

Declan Rice could still be on course for one of the greatest individual years modern soccer has ever seen if everything falls into place.

After a brief wobble, Arsenal now look poised to capture the Premier League title, while the Gunners have also booked their place in the Champions League final, where a daunting showdown with reigning champions PSG awaits. Then comes the World Cup this summer, with England firmly among the favorites to lift the trophy.

Should Rice help deliver all three, the Arsenal midfielder would have a truly compelling case to be crowned the 2026 Ballon d’Or winner. His blend of composure, intensity, leadership and big-game mentality has already made him the heartbeat of Mikel Arteta’s side—and could yet make him the face of a historic year for club and country.

Midfielders have also begun receiving far greater recognition in Ballon d’Or voting, with a central player finishing in the top three in three of the last four editions. If Rice sustains his current level—and inspires England deep into the World Cup knockout rounds—it is no longer unrealistic to imagine him standing atop the podium himself.

2. Michael Olise—Bayern Munich/France

Bayern Munich star Michael Olise — Olise has all the makings of a future Ballon d’Or winner. | Alexandra BEIER / AFP/Getty Images

Olise certainly isn’t bereft of self-assurance, and looks like a future Ballon d’Or winner in the making. Whether 2026 is a year or two too soon remains to be seen, but the fleet-footed France international has established himself as one of the world’s most watchable wide men over the past 12 months.

Kompany’s Bayern Munich are embarking on a PSG-like evolution, and Olise is at the forefront of their dominance alongside Díaz and Kane.

Aesthetics matter for voters, and Olise’s easy-on-the-eye style complements the inevitable productivity that comes with performing in the Bundesliga. If he can deliver in the biggest moments, and potentially for France this summer, Olise has a chance.

1. Harry Kane—Bayern Munich/England

Has the soccer world finally stopped pretending that Harry Kane is anything other than an all-time great center forward?

Kane has been producing at an elite level for years, but underwhelming displays at major tournaments and his long wait for silverware made him an easy target for criticism. Oh, and also because he played for Tottenham Hotspur.

Back-to-back Bundesliga titles, however, coupled with the fact he seems to be breaking records almost weekly with Bayern Munich, have finally convinced many that he truly belongs among the game’s elite—even if he has yet to lead the Bavarians to Champions League glory.

Should he shine with England at the World Cup this summer, it’s hard not to imagine the Ballon d’Or being his.

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