2026 Ballon d'Or Power Rankings: Mbappe, Yamal & Kane Leading Race for Golden Ball

The latest victor of the Ballon d’Or has only recently been crowned, yet the path to next year’s esteemed prize has already begun.

After more than a decade of predictability thanks to Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo’s otherworldly brilliance, variety has returned to France Football’s lucrative award. Between its inauguration and Ronaldo’s first triumph in 2008, there were only eight multi-time winners of the Ballon d’Or.

There have now been three different winners over the past four years, and 2026 has the potential to provide another surprise champion due to next summer’s World Cup, which will likely have a huge bearing on who lifts the golden ball aloft in Paris next September.

2018 winner Luka Modrić and 2023 winner Messi triumphed off the back of legacy-defining campaigns on the grandest stage the sport has to offer. So, with the North American spectacle in mind but other factors taken into account, too, here are Sports Illustrated’s leading contenders for the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

15. Vinicius Junior—Real Madrid/Brazil

Vinícius Júnior is always among the contenders. | Denis Doyle/Getty Images

Vinicius Junior’s agonising and ultimately unsuccessful brush with the Ballon d’Or will only spur him on. The Brazilian was denied the prize in 2024, beaten to the award by Rodri, and his decision to boycott the ceremony as a result certainly caused controversy.

But, on the pitch, there is no denying his brilliance. Real Madrid look sharper under Xabi Alonso than they did at the end of the Carlo Ancelotti era, with their fleet-footed Brazilian doing good early season work in La Liga and the Champions League.

Brazil success at the World Cup could put Vinicius Jr in contention for the 2026 vote.

14. Ousmane Dembélé—Paris Saint-Germain/France

Ousmané Dembélé — Dembélé will find it tough to repeat last season’s heroics. | Catherine Steenkeste/Getty Images

There were so many factors in PSG’s all-conquering 2024–25 campaign, with nine members of Luis Enrique’s squad earning a 2025 Ballon d’Or nomination.

PSG remain the world’s most potent outfit, but Dembélé has struggled for minutes so far this season due to injury issues. His role change was perhaps the biggest reason for their eventual success in Enrique’s second year, and the Frenchman’s season didn’t burst into life until the new year.

However, given the inconsistency and fitness woes Dembélé has manifested throughout his career, he’s unlikely to repeat in 2026.

13. Cristiano Ronaldo—Al Nassr/Portugal

If you haven’t already guessed it, you certainly will by the end of this article: The 2026 Ballon d’Or will be shaped decisively by the World Cup. That reality alone explains why Cristiano Ronaldo remains in the conversation.

There is no scenario in which his performances in the Saudi Pro League would be enough on their own. But if Ronaldo were to lead Portugal to World Cup glory—finally lifting the one major honour missing from his career—it would be impossible to ignore.

We have seen this script before. Lionel Messi’s triumph in 2022 was effectively sealed by Argentina’s success in Qatar. If Ronaldo were to replicate that feat four years later and still be denied the award, the backlash would be enormous.

12. Phil Foden—Manchester City/England

Whether it’s the departure of Kevin De Bruyne freeing him to operate more centrally, the arrival of Rayan Cherki—with whom he has already formed a dangerous and entertaining partnership—or the settling of off-field issues, one thing is clear: Phil Foden is back to his best for Manchester City, and he’s enjoying his football again.

After a bruising Euro 2024 with England, where criticism followed almost every touch, Foden carried that weight into the 2024–25 season. Confidence dipped, performances suffered and the downturn was so stark that some even questioned whether he would be on the plane for the 2026 World Cup.

Now, he looks revitalised. Goals are flowing, the Iniesta-like close control and vision that defined his rise have returned and the noise has faded.

Foden will be back on the biggest stage—and this time it’s about more than redemption. It’s a genuine opportunity to silence the doubters and force his way into the Ballon d’Or conversation.

11. Bukayo Saka—Arsenal/England

Arsenal are on course for a special season and Bukayo Saka will be inextricably linked to their joy. Despite a raft of impressive summer additions that have offered the Gunners the edge so far this term, it’s still their homegrown winger who is most important.

The England international, who will be a guaranteed starter and game-changer at next summer’s World Cup, continues to provide Arsenal with crucial cutting edge from the right wing, while he remains their most creative force in the final third of the pitch.

Left backs across Europe have faced Saka’s brilliance head on and come away licking their wounds, with few surviving his blend of speed and nimbleness. Should Arsenal clinch multiple trophies this campaign, their “Star Boy” will be in for a busy awards season.

10. Luis Díaz—Bayern Munich/Colombia

Luis Díaz struggled to escape Mohamed Salah’s shadow in 2024–25 but the explosive Colombian won’t face similar issues this season.

He’s doing exceptionally well at Bayern Munich having departed Liverpool over the summer, immediately endearing himself to supporters in Bavaria with his incredible work rate and goalscoring knack.

The fleet-footed winger is such a joyous watch when operating at full tilt and the early signs suggest the Bundesliga title will prove a formality for Bayern this term. Díaz will be crucial to clinching the title and will also prove indispensable in the push for Champions League glory.

However, Díaz will struggle to beat clubmates Michael Olise and Harry Kane to the Ballon d’Or, and he’s unlikely to astound on the international stage over the summer. Colombia have qualified for the World Cup, but are not expected to leave a significant mark on the competition.

9. Lionel Messi - Inter Miami/Argentina

The greatest to ever do it continues to emerge on social media timelines with his latest dazzling MLS sequence, but Messi isn’t a potential contender for next year’s award because of his Inter Miami exploits.

Instead of departing on a high after Qatar, Messi remains the central figure of the world’s finest national team. Argentina have since added another Copa América to rubber-stamp their dominance over South America, and they’re gunning to become the first team since Brazil in 1962 to retain the World Cup.

If Messi, at 39, is able to inspire his country to that extraordinary feat, he may well be the frontrunner to claim a ninth Ballon d’Or.

8. Michael Olise—Bayern Munich/France

Olise certainly isn’t bereft of self-assurance, and looks like a future Ballon d’Or winner in the making. Whether 2026 is a year or two too soon remains to be seen, but Olise has established himself as one of the world’s most watchable wide men over the past 12 months.

Vincent Kompany’s Bayern Munich are embarking on a PSG-like evolution, and Olise is at the forefront of their dominance alongside Díaz and Harry Kane.

Aesthetics matter for voters, and Olise’s easy-on-the-eye style complements the inevitable productivity that comes with performing in the Bundesliga. If he can deliver in the biggest moments, and potentially for France next summer, Olise has a chance.

7. Pedri—Barcelona/Spain

“Today is not a victory for me, it is for Spanish football...” Rodri said after claiming the prize in 2024, “...for so many players who have not won it and have deserved it, like [Andrés] Iniesta, Xavi [Hernández], Iker [Casillas], Sergio Busquets, so many others. It is for Spanish football and for the figure of the midfielder.”

Xavi and Iniesta were doubtless worthy of Ballon d’Or success, and we shouldn’t be hesitant to suggest that Pedri has been performing at a level comparable to the apexes of the aforementioned Barcelona greats.

The Spaniard is the best midfielder in football, and he’ll complement an already outstanding Spain triumvirate at next summer’s World Cup.

6. Vitinha—Paris Saint-Germain/Portugal

Vitinha secured bronze in the 2025 Ballon d’Or for the part he played in Paris Saint-Germain’s domestic and European dominance. The midfielder was Luis Enrique’s tempo-setter in the engine room, dictating the domination with swagger and composure.

There are few playmakers capable of matching Vitinha’s productivity and importance, with PSG leaning on their maestro to conduct things on the grandest stages. He’s unflappable and deservedly made the podium during the most recent Ballon d’Or vote.

Portugal will be among the contenders for the World Cup this summer despite not being the favourites for the competition, with Vitinha critical to their chances of more major silverware.

He’s expected to be in the running for football’s most coveted individual prize once again.

5. Declan Rice—Arsenal/England

Arsenal midfielder Declan Rice — Declan Rice is Arsenal’s main man. | Shaun Brooks/CameraSport/Getty Images

Declan Rice has earned back-to-back Ballon d’Or nominations in 2024 and 2025, making the 30-man shortlist on both occasions, finishing 26th and 27th, respectively.

As he continues to thrive under Mikel Arteta at Arsenal, there is little doubt he will feature on the shortlist again in 2026. His authoritative midfield displays have been central to the Gunners’ Premier League title charge and their Champions League ambitions, with his all-action influence at both ends of the pitch marking him out as one of Europe’s standout midfielders.

Lifting the league title would significantly strengthen his case, but if Rice can also help Arsenal make a deep run in Europe, he could find himself pushing much higher up the rankings.

Midfielders have received increased recognition in recent Ballon d’Or voting, with a central player finishing in the top three in three of the last four editions. If Rice maintains his current level—and can also help England go far at the World Cup—he has a genuine chance to make that four in five.

4. Lamine Yamal—Barcelona/Spain

Yamal made a strong push in 2025 and many would argue that he is the best footballer in the world right now, even if he wasn’t able to match the likes of Raphinha, Salah and Dembélé statistically.

The youngster is the epitome of a generation-defining talent who, on his current trajectory, will undoubtedly end his career as a multi-time Ballon d’Or winner and one of the greatest of all time.

Yamal has struggled with a groin injury in 2025–26, but he’s now back fooling La Liga left backs with his combination of confidence, ingenuity and outstanding technique.

He may well be celebrating his crowning glory at MetLife Stadium next July, and at 19, Yamal would become the youngest Ballon d’Or victor. He’s gotten used to smashing records, though.

3. Erling Haaland—Manchester City/Norway

Haaland would have a Ballon d’Or in his back pocket if Messi hadn’t embarked on perhaps the greatest World Cup campaign by an individual in 2022.

The Norwegian’s record-breaking 2022–23 season earned him a second-place finish in the voting. He’s since finished fifth and 26th.

Haaland continues to score goals at a frightening rate and his general level at the start of 2025–26 has arguably been the best ever seen. It will require Manchester City to improve as a collective for him to be recognised at next year’s ceremony, but Norway’s first World Cup since 1998 could offer another platform for his prolific edge.

2. Harry Kane—Bayern Munich/England

Has the world finally stopped pretending to regard Kane as anything but an all-time great centre forward? Was it that Bundesliga triumph that convinced the masses?

Kane has been doing this for years, but sluggish performances at major tournaments and his trophy drought were easy sticks to beat the striker with. Oh, and also because he played for Spurs.

The Bayern forward hasn’t necessarily reached new heights in Germany, but he‘s performing with a swagger that suggests he’s considerably better than those he’s competing against.

Kane will score a bucket load again for Bayern, and Kompany’s team look like a serious Champions League contender.

1. Kylian Mbappé—Real Madrid/France

Another year has passed without Mbappé holding the golden ball aloft.

Many would’ve projected the French superstar to be a multi-time winner by now after he burst onto the scene like very few ever have at the 2018 World Cup.

Mbappé has thrived on the biggest stage for his country, and Madrid look poised to improve considerably on a season that ended without any trophies worthy of Ballon d’Or recognition.

The Madrid striker was La Liga’s top goalscorer last term, and he’s been utterly tremendous in 2025–26. He’s got a very good chance next year of finally securing the ultimate individual prize.