The 15 Favorites to Win the 2026 Ballon d’Or—Ranked

Former winners, World Cup hopefuls and even a defender are all in contention to win the next Ballon d’Or.

Kylian Mbappé (left) and Lamine Yamal (right) are leading candidates. / Denis Doyle/Getty Images, Eric Alonso/Getty Images

The latest victor of the Ballon d’Or has only recently been crowned, yet the path to next year’s esteemed prize has already begun.

After more than a decade of predictability thanks to Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo’s otherworldly brilliance, variety has returned to France Football’s lucrative award. Between its inauguration and Ronaldo’s first triumph in 2008, there were only eight multi-time winners of the Ballon d’Or.

There have now been three different winners over the past four years, and 2026 has the potential to provide another surprise champion due to next summer’s World Cup, which will likely have a huge bearing on who lifts the golden ball aloft in Paris next September.

2018 winner Luka Modrić and 2023 winner Messi triumphed off the back of legacy-defining campaigns on the grandest stage the sport has to offer. So, with the North American spectacle in mind but other factors taken into account, too, here are Sports Illustrated’s leading contenders for the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

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The 15 Favorites to Win the 2026 Ballon d’Or—Ranked

15. Gabriel—Arsenal / Brazil

Could a defender actually win the Ballon d’Or again? / Robbie Jay Barratt/AMA/Getty Images

We know, we know. Defenders are generally never in contention for the Ballon d’Or—and they have seldom been triumphant. Virgil van Dijk was a runner-up in 2019, but you have to go back to Fabio Cannavaro in 2006 for the last defender crowned the best of the best.

However, if someone is going to buck the trend, Gabriel is a strong candidate. The center back has been critical to Arsenal’s resilient rearguard, forming an extraordinary partnership with William Saliba that has thwarted most forward lines. He’s also an incredible attacking presence, regularly popping up with crucial assists and goals in Arsenal’s time of need.

If Brazil are to be successful at the World Cup, they will rely on the Arsenal behemoth, too. Should the Gunners end their trophy drought this term and Gabriel achieves world champion status with the national team, he could be among consideration for the Ballon d’Or.

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14. Luis Díaz—Bayern Munich / Colombia

Luis Díaz is flying at Bayern Munich. / Danilo Di Giovanni/Getty Images

Luis Díaz struggled to escape Mohamed Salah’s shadow in 2024–25 but the explosive Colombian won’t face similar issues this season.

He’s doing exceptionally well at Bayern Munich having departed Liverpool over the summer, immediately endearing himself to supporters in Bavaria with his incredible work rate and goalscoring knack.

The fleet-footed winger is such a joyous watch when operating at full tilt and the early signs suggest the Bundesliga title will prove a formality for Bayern this term. Díaz will be crucial to clinching the title and will also prove indispensable in the push for Champions League glory.

However, Díaz will struggle to beat clubmates Michael Olise and Harry Kane to the Ballon d’Or, and he’s unlikely to astound on the international stage over the summer. Colombia have qualified for the World Cup, but are not expected to leave a significant mark on the competition.

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13. Mohamed Salah—Liverpool / Egypt

The Egyptian remains an inevitable force down Liverpool’s right. / Carl Recine/Getty Images

Mohamed Salah appears extremely unlikely to match his record-breaking productivity from last season considering his worryingly tame start to the 2025–26 campaign.

With Liverpool overseeing a historic spend last summer and several shiny new assets arriving to diversify Arne Slot’s attack, the Reds are not as utterly reliant on the Egyptian king.

They’re struggling, too, with Salah one of those in Slot’s squad failing to match the dizzying heights he reached last season. He’s looked a shadow of his prolific self in a misfiring Liverpool team.

However, Salah is rarely silenced for long, and an impressive second half of the season with the Reds and international success with Egypt at the Africa Cup of Nations could thrust him up the rankings.

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12. Vitinha—Paris Saint-Germain / Portugal

Vitinha is an exceptional playmaker. / ANP/Getty Images

Vitinha secured bronze in the 2025 Ballon d’Or for the part he played in Paris Saint-Germain’s domestic and European dominance. The midfielder was Luis Enrique’s tempo-setter in the engine room, dictating the domination with swagger and composure.

There are few playmakers capable of matching Vitinha’s productivity and importance, with PSG leaning on their maestro to conduct things on the grandest stages. He’s unflappable and deservedly made the podium during the most recent Ballon d’Or vote.

Portugal will be among the contenders for the World Cup this summer despite not being the favorites for the competition, with Vitinha critical to their chances of more major silverware.

He’s expected to be in the running for football’s most coveted individual prize once again.

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11. Bukayo Saka—Arsenal / England

Bukayo Saka is crucial for Arsenal and England. / Harry Murphy/Danehouse/Getty Images

Arsenal are on course for a special season and Bukayo Saka will be inextricably linked to their joy. Despite a raft of impressive summer additions that have offered the Gunners the edge so far this term, it’s still their homegrown winger who is most important.

The England international, who will be a guaranteed starter and game-changer at next summer’s World Cup, continues to provide Arsenal with crucial cutting edge from the right wing, while he remains their most creative force in the final third of the pitch.

Left backs across Europe have faced Saka’s brilliance head on and come away licking their wounds, with few surviving his blend of speed and nimbleness. Should Arsenal clinch multiple trophies this campaign, their “Star Boy” will be in for a busy awards season.

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10. Lionel Messi - Inter Miami / Argentina

Messi’s ’Last Dance’ for Argentina could end in glory. / Marcelo Endelli/Getty Images

The greatest to ever do it continues to emerge on social media timelines with his latest dazzling MLS sequence, but Messi isn’t a potential contender for next year’s award because of his Inter Miami exploits.

Instead of departing on a high after Qatar, Messi remains the central figure of the world’s finest national team. Argentina have since added another Copa América to rubber-stamp their dominance over South America, and they’re gunning to become the first team since Brazil in 1962 to retain the World Cup.

If Messi, at 39, is able to inspire his country to that extraordinary feat, he may well be the frontrunner to claim a ninth Ballon d’Or.

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9. Vinicius Junior—Real Madrid / Brazil

Vinícius Júnior is always among the contenders. / Denis Doyle/Getty Images

Vinicius Junior’s agonizing and ultimately unsuccessful brush with the Ballon d’Or will only spur him on. The Brazilian was denied the prize in 2024, beaten to the award by Rodri, and his decision to boycott the ceremony as a result certainly caused controversy.

But, on the pitch, there is no denying his brilliance. Real Madrid look much sharper under Xabi Alonso than they did at the end of the Carlo Ancelotti era, with their fleet-footed Brazilian continuing to rack up impressive numbers in La Liga and the Champions League.

Kylian Mbappé appears likely to overshadow his clubmate this season, but Brazil success at the World Cup could swing momentum in Vinicius’s favor ahead of the 2026 vote.

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8. Raphinha—Barcelona / Brazil

Hansi Flick has turned Raphinha into a superstar. / Robbie Jay Barratt - AMA/Getty Images

Hansi Flick’s arrival has proven to be the making of Raphinha at Barcelona. Once a tidy wide creator who drew stylistic comparisons to Ángel Di María, Raphinha has evolved into an unstoppable final-third force and a mightily efficient outlet.

He’ll struggle to match his staggering output from 2024–25, but Barça haven’t stopped scoring goals in Flick’s second year as they aim to repeat (or improve upon) their treble success.

Raphinha, perhaps instead of Vinicius, could emerge as Brazil’s beacon of hope at the World Cup, too.

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7. Ousmane Dembélé—Paris Saint-Germain / France

Dembélé will find it tough to repeat last season’s heroics. / Catherine Steenkeste/Getty Images

There were so many factors in PSG’s all-conquering 2024–25 campaign, with nine members of Luis Enrique’s squad earning a 2025 Ballon d’Or nomination.

PSG remain the world’s most potent outfit, but Dembélé has struggled for minutes so far this season due to injury issues. His role change was perhaps the biggest reason for their eventual success in Enrique’s second year, and the Frenchman’s season didn’t burst into life until the new year.

However, given the inconsistency and fitness woes Dembélé has manifested throughout his career, he’s unlikely to repeat in 2026.

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6. Michael Olise—Bayern Munich / France

Olise has all the makings of a future Ballon d’Or winner. / Daniel Kopatsch/Getty Images

Olise certainly isn’t bereft of self-assurance, and looks like a future Ballon d’Or winner in the making. Whether 2026 is a year or two too soon remains to be seen, but Olise has established himself as one of the world’s most watchable wide men over the past 12 months.

Vincent Kompany’s Bayern Munich are embarking on a PSG-like evolution, and Olise is at the forefront of their dominance alongside Díaz and Kane.

Aesthetics matter for voters, and Olise’s easy-on-the-eye style complements the inevitable productivity that comes with performing in the Bundesliga. If he can deliver in the biggest moments, and potentially for France next summer, Olise has a chance.

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5. Pedri—Barcelona / Spain

Pedri is the lynchpin of an outstanding Barcelona team. / David Ramos/Getty Images

“Today is not a victory for me, it is for Spanish football...” Rodri said after claiming the prize in 2024, “...for so many players who have not won it and have deserved it, like [Andrés] Iniesta, Xavi [Hernández], Iker [Casillas], Sergio Busquets, so many others. It is for Spanish football and for the figure of the midfielder.”

Xavi and Iniesta were doubtless worthy of Ballon d’Or success, and we shouldn’t be hesitant to suggest that Pedri has been performing at a level comparable to the apexes of the aforementioned Barcelona greats.

The Spaniard is the best midfielder in football, and he’ll complement an already outstanding Spain triumvirate at next summer’s World Cup.

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4. Erling Haaland—Manchester City / Norway

Haaland will never stop scoring. / Image Photo Agency/Getty Images

Haaland would have a Ballon d’Or in his back pocket if Messi hadn’t embarked on perhaps the greatest World Cup campaign by an individual in 2022.

The Norwegian’s record-breaking 2022–23 season earned him a second-place finish in the voting. He’s since finished fifth and 26th.

Haaland continues to score goals at a frightening rate and his general level at the start of 2025–26 has arguably been the best ever seen. It will require Manchester City to improve as a collective for him to be recognized at next year’s ceremony, but Norway’s first World Cup since 1998 could offer another platform for his prolific edge.

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3. Harry Kane—Bayern Munich / England

The world is waking up to Harry Kane’s brilliance. / Maja Hitij/Getty Images

Has the world finally stopped pretending to regard Kane as anything but an all-time great center forward? Was it that Bundesliga triumph that convinced the masses?

Kane has been doing this for years, but sluggish performances at major tournaments and his trophy drought were easy sticks to beat the striker with. Oh, and also because he played for Spurs.

The Bayern forward hasn’t necessarily reached new heights in Germany, but he‘s performing with a swagger that suggests he’s considerably better than those he’s competing against.

Kane will score a bucket load again for Bayern, and Kompany’s team look like a serious Champions League contender.

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2. Lamine Yamal—Barcelona / Spain

Yamal could win the Ballon d’Or as a teenager. / Diego Souto/Getty Images

Yamal made a strong push in 2025 and many would argue that he is the best footballer in the world right now, even if he wasn’t able to match the likes of Raphinha, Salah and Dembélé statistically.

The youngster is the epitome of a generation-defining talent who, on his current trajectory, will undoubtedly end his career as a multi-time Ballon d’Or winner and one of the greatest of all time.

Yamal has struggled with a groin injury in 2025–26, but he’s now back fooling La Liga left-backs with his combination of confidence, ingenuity and outstanding technique.

He may well be celebrating his crowning glory at MetLife Stadium next July, and at 19, Yamal would become the youngest Ballon d’Or victor. He’s gotten used to smashing records, though.

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1. Kylian Mbappé—Real Madrid / France

Mbappé is yet to get his hands on the esteemed prize. / Angel Martinez/Getty Images

Another year has passed without Mbappé holding the golden ball aloft.

Many would’ve projected the French superstar to be a multi-time winner by now after he burst onto the scene like very few ever have at the 2018 World Cup.

Mbappé has thrived on the biggest stage for his country, and Madrid look poised to improve considerably on a season that ended without any trophies worthy of Ballon d’Or recognition.

The Madrid striker was La Liga’s top goalscorer last term, and he’s been utterly tremendous in 2025–26. He’s got a very good chance next year of finally securing the ultimate individual prize.

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