What's Left to Be Decided on MLS Decision Day
The finish line is one step away. Not every club has taken an equal amount of steps, and there have been some Mario Kart-like obstacles thrown into everyone's path, but ultimately, the MLS regular season will come to an end with Sunday's Decision Day set of finales.
Ever since MLS went to a points-per-game format to determine the standings and playoff seeding, it's become a little less straightforward to ascertain the impact of each result. The league had no choice, due to some games postponed for coronavirus reasons not being made up and not all teams reaching the 23-game target (and even a complete Decision Day isn't entirely out of the woods with Sporting Kansas City and Real Salt Lake each having positive coronavirus tests in the last two days), but it adds an extra layer of math to the proceedings.
In the simplest form, the Supporters' Shield, playoff seeding in the Western Conference and two playoff berths plus seeding in the Eastern Conference are what's up for grabs on Sunday. Here's a closer look at what will be decided ahead of the playoffs that will begin after the FIFA international break on Nov. 20.
SUPPORTERS' SHIELD
Yes, there will be a Supporters' Shield awarded this season after a back-and-forth decision-making process, and it comes down to the Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC, who are both on two points per game (44 points total) and have two more wins than the next-closest side, Orlando City, which is three points off the pace (and at 1.86 points per game).
Philadelphia hosts the New England Revolution at Subaru Park, where it's a perfect 8-0-0 this season, while Toronto plays at the New York Red Bulls. The math here is not difficult, since they've both played the same amount of games, both enter with the same amount of wins and the Union hold an unassailable edge in goal differential, which is the next tiebreaker. Any Philadelphia result that equals or betters what Toronto does in its simultaneous match will give the Union the Shield and the top seed in the East. If Philadelphia slips up and Toronto secures a better result, then those honors go to the Reds for the second time in four seasons.
EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS
Eight of the 10 seeds in the East are spoken for, with only FC Cincinnati eliminated from contention, meaning five clubs are vying for two spots.
Currently, the Montreal Impact and Chicago Fire hold those places, with Atlanta United, Inter Miami and D.C. United still alive. All five of those teams are considerably under .500, taking full advantage of the expanded playoff field to pull within reach of new life in the postseason despite being deeply flawed sides.
Montreal is in the driver's seat and would get in with a win over D.C. United. Chicago also has a win-and-in possibility entering its finale vs. NYCFC. Beyond that, it gets quite messy, with a number of permutations and possibilities. According to MLS's official website:
MLSSoccer.com
All teams have played an equal amount of games in the East, which at least keeps things straightforward in that regard.
In terms of hosting playoff games, Philly, Toronto and Orlando are assured of being the home team in their first games, while the Columbus Crew and NYCFC are vying for that fourth spot. New England, the Red Bulls and Nashville SC, meanwhile, are out to avoid having to compete in the play-in round. The bottom four seeds will have to play an extra playoff match, making the fight for sixth place all the more important. The Revs could secure that with a win or draw vs. the Union.
WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS
The eight seeds out West are clinched, but there's room for plenty of fluctuation between them. Three teams can take the top spot, which is currently held by Sporting KC. Peter Vermes's side can hold onto it by beating Real Salt Lake, but a failure to do that opens the door for the Portland Timbers and Seattle Sounders.
Portland, which won the MLS Is Back tournament but has since lost two Designated Players in Sebastian Blanco and Jaroslaw Niezgoda to injury, can snag the top seed anyway with a win over LAFC and a Sporting KC draw or loss. Seattle, the defending MLS Cup champion, can pip them both to first by beating the resurgent San Jose Earthquakes and having both SKC and Portland fail to win.
All three are vying for home games in the playoffs, with the fourth spot for the first-round home game also in the balance. It's currently held by FC Dallas, who could technically still be caught by Minnesota United, LAFC and even the Colorado Rapids, who will wind up playing as many as five fewer games than most clubs.
San Jose, a team with -13 goal differential that has had more extreme ups and downs than any other club in the league, is locked into a road matchup for the first round of the playoffs. The Vancouver Whitecaps, LA Galaxy, RSL and Houston Dynamo have all been eliminated, with the former two facing each other for pride and the latter two out to play spoiler.
PLAYOFFS
The league revealed the schedule for the playoffs on Friday, with a three-week, single-elimination sprint to a Dec. 12 MLS Cup final that will be broadcast in primetime (8 p.m. ET) on FOX and UniMas/TUDN in the United States and TSN and TVA Sports in Canada.
The Western Conference bracket will be simple enough, with the eight seeds set after Sunday and the four opening matchups (to be played across Nov. 21, 22 and 24). The Eastern Conference will have a play-in round to complete its eight-team bracket on Nov. 20.
The conference semifinals will be spread across Nov. 29, Dec. 1 and Dec. 2, with the conference finals held in consecutive windows on Dec. 6.
Six days later, MLS Cup will be hosted by the finalist with the better regular-season record.
