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2025–26 Champions League: Supercomputer Predicts League Phase Table
Last term’s inaugural Champions League league phase was an overwhelming success and supporters are eager to witness similar drama and high-profile match-ups this season.
The expanded format offered a breath of fresh air and also supplied an array of upsets and memorable battles, with 144 games being played across the league phase in 2025–26.
The renowned Opta supercomputer has been crunching the numbers ahead of the beginning of the league phase on Sept. 16, predicting the most likely position for each of the 36 participating clubs.
Here’s what the supercomputer has slated for the upcoming competition.
How Do Teams Qualify for Champions League Knockout Phase?
The relatively new Champions League format is slightly more complicated than the previous iteration.
36 teams make up one large league table and each side plays eight matches against eight different opponents from across the continent. The sides that finish from first to eighth at the end of the league phase will automatically progress to the last 16.
However, those placed from ninth to 24th will compete in a two-legged play-off round. Ninth to 16th will face clubs that finished from 17th to 24th, with the aggregate winner of each play-off progressing to the last 16.
Sides that finish from 25th to 36th will lose their place in the competition and will not drop into the Europa League.
Supercomputer Predicts Final League Phase Table
Top Eight
Liverpool topped the league phase in 2024–25 and have been predicted to do the same this term. Arne Slot’s Premier League winners won seven of their eight matches last season and have made a winning start to the new campaign as they seek to dominate Europe as well as England. However, their first-place finish did them no favours last term as they came up against eventual champions Paris Saint-Germain in the last 16.
Despite being the holders, PSG have been tipped to finish fifth—likely owing to their incredibly tough Champions League schedule. English trio Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea are predicted to finish ahead of them—and in that order—which would result in an all-Premier League top four during the league phase.
The Gunners finished third in the league phase last term and eventually made the semi-final stage, but Man City were knocked out in the play-off round and Chelsea were in the Conference League. The Cityzens have lost two of their three Premier League matches this term, too, suggesting another tricky campaign is on the horizon.
Barcelona were runners-up to Liverpool last season but went much deeper in the competition than the Reds, ultimately knocked out by Inter in the semis—the Italian side are predicted to finish eighth. A sixth-place finish is touted for Hansi Flick’s side—one place above record European champions Real Madrid. The La Liga giants will be among the favourites for the trophy this year and should ease into the last 16.
Position | Club | Predicted Points |
|---|---|---|
1. | Liverpool | 17.26 |
2. | Arsenal | 16.80 |
3. | Manchester City | 15.27 |
4. | Chelsea | 14.93 |
5. | Paris Saint-Germain | 14.79 |
6. | Barcelona | 14.54 |
7. | Real Madrid | 14.38 |
8. | Inter | 13.34 |
Nine to 24
Bayern Munich will expect a top-eight finish having been forced into the play-off round last term but Opta have predicted that they will narrowly miss out on an automatic last 16 berth. Ninth is slated for the Bundesliga champions, with English duo Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur projected to finish in 10th and 11th respectively on their returns to the competition.
Somewhat surprisingly, Serie A champions Napoli are only predicted to finish 13th—one place behind Benfica—but their compatriots Juventus have been handed a 15th-place finish, just below 2023–24 finalists Borussia Dortmund.
Atlético Madrid have been forecast to struggle and nerves will be jangling in the capital if their 20th-place finish comes to pass. Atalanta, Club Brugge, Villarreal and Sporting CP are all predicted to finish higher.
Belgian side Union Saint-Gilloise will hope Opta are correct in forecasting a 24th-place finish, which would see the debutants compete in the play-off round. Monaco, Bayer Leverkusen and Athletic Club are also predicted to sneak into the knockout rounds.
Position | Club | Predicted Points |
|---|---|---|
9. | Bayern Munich | 12.75 |
10. | Newcastle United | 12.48 |
11. | Tottenham Hotspur | 12.37 |
12. | Benfica | 12.15 |
13. | Napoli | 11.89 |
14. | Borussia Dortmund | 11.53 |
15. | Juventus | 11.35 |
16. | Sporting CP | 11.34 |
17. | Villarreal | 11.14 |
18. | Club Brugge | 10.93 |
19. | Atalanta | 10.86 |
20. | Atlético Madrid | 10.69 |
21. | Monaco | 10.16 |
22. | Bayer Leverkusen | 10.05 |
23. | Athletic Club | 9.93 |
24. | Union Saint-Gilloise | 9.80 |
25 to 36
Unsurprisingly, the Champions League’s other debutants Kairat, Pafos and Bodø/Glimt are predicted gloomy campaigns that will see them miss out on the knockout stage. The trio’s appearance in the league phase will have enormous financial benefits but they will dream of going a step further and upsetting the odds.
The likes of Copenhagen, Slavia Prague and Qarabağ have all regularly featured in the Champions League over the years but seldom make a sizeable impact. They are likely to be sent packing come the end of the league phase.
PSV Eindhoven are not expected to make the play-offs despite appearing in the round of 16 last term, but they are at least expected to finish above Dutch rivals Ajax.
Olympiacos are tipped to agonisingly miss out on the knockouts with a 25th-place finish, while Eintracht Frankfurt, Galatasaray and Marseille are also tipped for early exits.
Position | Club | Predicted Points |
|---|---|---|
25. | Olympiacos | 9.63 |
26. | PSV Eindhoven | 9.42 |
27. | Galatasaray | 9.37 |
28. | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9.32 |
29. | Copenhagen | 9.30 |
30. | Pafos | 8.74 |
31. | Marseille | 8.37 |
32. | Ajax | 8.18 |
33. | Slavia Prague | 7.57 |
34. | Bodø/Glimt | 7.48 |
35. | Qarabağ | 5.58 |
36. | Kairat | 3.54 |
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Ewan Ross-Murray is a Sports Illustrated Soccer freelance writer who focuses primarily on the Premier League. Ewan was born in Leicester, but his heart, and club allegiance, belongs to Liverpool.