Supercomputer Predicts 2025 Club World Cup Winner: Real Madrid Third Favorites

The final of this summer’s tournament takes place on Sunday, July 13.

Real Madrid are one of just four teams remaining. / Mike Segar-Reuters via Imagn Images

There were 32, but now only four. Within a flash, we have arrived at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup semifinal stage.

The revamped tournament has offered a sparkling array of narratives and some epic duels between each continent’s top dogs, with the showpiece event at MetLife Stadium on July 13 edging ever closer.

European teams were always expected to go deepest in the United States but there remains one surprise trophy contender from South America hoping to massively upset the odds.

But who do stat experts Opta predict will win the competition?

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Supercomputer Predicts Club World Cup Champion

European champions PSG are tournament favorites. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Reigning European champions Paris Saint-Germain were among the leading pre-tournament favorites and have made good on their promise to seriously compete for the title. The French giants have conceded just once at the tournament in defeat to Botafogo but knockout victories over Inter Miami CF and then Bayern Munich have seen them into the semifinals.

They are considered the leading candidates for the crown and have been given a 39.33% chance of lifting the trophy aloft, while they are also considered marginal favorites (58.84%) to beat Real Madrid in a tantalizing semifinal battle on Wednesday.

Los Blancos have shown vulnerability as they adapt to life under Xabi Alonso but their quality has seen them move beyond the group stage and then European behemoths Juventus and Borussia Dortmund in the knockout rounds. Despite their ability to win silverware at a canter, Madrid are only given a 24.67% chance of claiming the Club World Cup title.

Chelsea, who have had a rather more favorable run to the last four than either of their potential final opponents, are given better odds of winning the tournament than Madrid at 33.27%, and their chances of reaching the final sit at 80.51%. The Blues have beaten Benfica and Palmeiras since the group stage and will face former defender Thiago Silva in the semis as they aim to topple surprise package Fluminense.

The Brazilians are considered the underdogs of the last four—rather unsurprisingly—but can take solace from the fact that Chelsea have already been beaten by their compatriots Flamengo at the tournament. Fluminense’s stern defense has helped them past Inter and Al Hilal in the knockout rounds and they will fancy their chances of achieving another upset on Tuesday.

They may only be handed a 19.49% chance of glory, but much stranger things have happened.

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Chances of Winning Club World Cup

Club	Chances of Reaching the Final	Chances of Winning the Trophy
Paris Saint-Germain	58.84%	39.33%
Chelsea	80.51%	33.27%
Real Madrid	41.16%	24.67%
Fluminense	19.49%	19.49%

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