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Supercomputer Predicts Premier League Table After Another Liverpool Slip Up
The Premier League’s bridesmaids are desperate to become the bride, with the champions’ autumnal lull opening the door for Arsenal to pounce.
Liverpool capitalised on Manchester City’s swift decline and the Gunners’ injury woes to coast to the title last term, but Arne Slot’s side, despite their historic summer splurge, have a fight on their hands if they’re to retain their crown.
A productive start to their defence with plenty of late drama meant the “mentality monsters” tag was chucked out at will, but the Reds now have succumbed to back-to-back last-gasp defeats, relinquishing their spot at the summit as a result.
HENRY WINTER. Henry on Arse/Liv. Arsenal Ahead of Liverpool in Integrating Summer Signings. dark
Slot’s men refused to waver after reaching the top in 2024–25, and Arsenal, who have a kind upcoming schedule after navigating through a daunting start, will want to assert similar authority this time around to break their duck.
Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer projects the Premier League title race to pan out, off the back of Liverpool’s 2–1 defeat at Chelsea.
Supercomputer’s Predicted 2025–26 Premier League Table
Premier League Title Race
Pos. | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Title Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Arsenal | 16 | 77.11 | 44.23 |
2. | Liverpool | 15 | 74.91 | 30.61 |
3. | Man City | 13 | 69.75 | 14.32 |
2025–26 Premier League Standings. dark. Next. Premier League Standings
Liverpool remained Opta’s favourites after their defeat to Crystal Palace, but Arsenal have now emerged as the supercomputer’s tip to finish top.
They boast a single-point advantage over the champions, and Opta is projecting an imperfect title race to play out. Arsenal are currently expected to finish with just over 77 points, which is just three more than what they earned as distant runners-up last season.
In fact, a 77-point haul would be the lowest accumulated by a Premier League champion since Manchester United (75 points) in 1996–97.
Liverpool are now slated to pick up just shy of 75 points, meaning they’d barely miss out on their third Premier League crown. Despite this small margin, Opta rates their chances of lifting the title at just 30.61% compared to Arsenal’s 44.23%.
Manchester City will go as far as Erling Haaland can take them this season, and that may be to the promised land, given his form to start 2025–26. The Cityzens are three points off the leaders, but are far from a juggernaut. Their imperfections are projected to lead them to just shy of 70 points, with Opta giving them a 14.32% chance of reclaiming their throne.
Champions League Spots
Pos. | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Champions League Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
4. | Chelsea | 11 | 61.53 | 31.08 |
5. | Crystal Palace | 12 | 60.85 | 29.17 |
6. | Newcastle | 9 | 58.71 | 22.13 |
7. | Bournemouth | 14 | 57.65 | 17.77 |
8. | Spurs | 14 | 57.04 | 17.18 |
9. | Aston Villa | 9 | 56.09 | 13.68 |
10. | Brighton | 9 | 55.19 | 11.49 |
There’s a pretty distinct top three, but there could be a battle between an array of clubs for what could be two more places in next season’s Champions League. It’s likely that the Premier League’s top five will qualify for UEFA’s premier club competition.
Despite their victory over Liverpool, Opta doesn’t rate Chelsea as serious title contenders, but the supercomputer certainly likes their chances of finishing in the top four.
Everton brought Crystal Palace’s 19-game unbeaten run to an end on Sunday, but Opta is still bullish over Oliver Glasner’s Eagles. They’re backed to earn their biggest points haul in Premier League history, and follow up their Conference League campaign with a stint in the Champions League next term. Palace’s 60.85 expected points would be enough to claim fifth spot.
The computer also likes Newcastle United despite their slow start, while Tottenham Hotspur’s unconvincing underlying numbers means a drop-off is expected at some point. Bournemouth are projected to play in Europe for the very first time, while Aston Villa and Brighton & Hove Albion round out Opta’s top ten.
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James Cormack is a Sports Illustrated Soccer freelance writer with an avid interest in tactical and player analysis. As well as supporting Spurs religiously, he follows Italian and German football, taking particular interest in the work of Antonio Conte & Julian Nagelsmann.