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Defending champ Andy Murray gets by Fabio Fognini to reach last 16

Andy Murray did not play his best against Fabio Fognini but he's through to the fourth round at Wimbledon.
Jon Wertheim|
Defending champ Andy Murray gets by Fabio Fognini to reach last 16
Defending champ Andy Murray gets by Fabio Fognini to reach last 16

There’s a reason why top players like the best-of-five format. The underdog can get hot for an hour—or the favorite’s level can drop for a stretch—and there’s ample time for a market correction. A longer match = a greater sample size = a greater chance of a regression to the mean.

We got a vivid display of this principle on Friday evening on Centre Court. Andy Murray did not play his best against Fabio Fognini. He lost the second set 6-4. He trailed 2-5 in the fourth. But with the cushion of a longer match, Murray had time to find his game and the better player won.

Happy with his fight if not his form, Murray took it 6-2, 4-6, 6-1, 7-5. The defending champ gets Benoit Paire next in the fourth round.

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Jon Wertheim
JON WERTHEIM

Jon Wertheim is a senior writer for Sports Illustrated and has been part of the full-time SI writing staff since 1997, largely focusing on the tennis beat, sports business and social issues, and enterprise journalism. In addition to his work at SI, he is a correspondent for “60 Minutes” and a commentator for The Tennis Channel. He has authored 11 books and has been honored with two Emmys, numerous writing and investigative journalism awards, and the Eugene Scott Award from the International Tennis Hall of Fame. Wertheim is a longtime member of the New York Bar Association (retired), the International Tennis Writers Association and the Writers Guild of America. He has a bachelor’s in history from Yale University and received a law degree from the University of Pennsylvania. He resides in New York City and Paris with his wife, who is a divorce mediator and adjunct law professor. They have two children.

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