Week 16 NFL Odds and Best Bets
With the NFL regular season winding down, the main storyline for Week 16 should be the playoff race heating up. Instead, mother nature and the nasty weather forecasted for some of these games is dominating headlines.
Single-digit temperatures with negative wind-chills, snow, rain, sleet, and forceful winds are all expected to be factors for games in Chicago, Cleveland, Kansas City, New England, Pittsburgh and Tennessee.
For those looking to bet on the games, the weather may affect on your rationale. Luckily, our NFL insiders and betting analysts provided their best bets for Week 16. We specifically focused on SI Sportsbook’s Perfect 10 contest where participants play for free and pick winners for 10 games for the chance to win $10,000.
For the week 16 Perfect 10 slate, there’s only one game that features a matchup between two division rivals with the Cowboys hosting the Eagles. Of the 10 games in the contest, six involve AFC teams taking on NFC teams.
There are three home underdogs, with the Patriots (+3.5), Bears (+8.5) and Rams (+1.5) all getting points in front of their home crowds. The Chiefs (-9.5) are the biggest favorites on the slate, followed by the Bills (-8.5).
Check out our best bets for Week 16.
Conor Orr: Packers +4.5
The Packers getting points at a time when the Dolphins are also playing a more slow-it-down style of offense is an intriguing bet. There have been glimpses in the past few weeks of progress in Green Bay, and while A.J. Dillon‘s status is up in the air, they have been running the ball more effectively in the red zone. Miami will, at some point, have a game where it slips and loses to someone it shouldn’t.
Michael Fabiano: Chiefs -9.5
Is it me or does this line seem high? It feels like Vegas is begging us to take the points, so I’m going to audible and take the Chiefs. Geno Smith is 4-5 against the spread as an underdog this season and the Seahawks won’t have one of their top offensive options in Tyler Lockett. On the flip side, Patrick Mahomes is 4-1 in his career in games where the Chiefs are nine-to-9.5-point favorites at Arrowhead Stadium (strange but true). He’s also led Kansas City to two straight home covers.
Jen Piacenti: Bengals -3.5
Joe Burrow hasn’t faced Bill Bellichick’s team before but, then again, this Belichick team doesn’t resemble anything that it used to.The Bengals have now won six straight, and I don’t see them being slowed down by a Patriots team that chose to throw lateral passes in the final three seconds of a game that was heading to overtime. Don’t underestimate that Bengals’ defense either.
Matt De Lima: Vikings -3.5
The Giants don’t offer a great matchup against the Vikings. New York’s run defense is close to the worst in the league, allowing 5.4 yards per carry and giving up a first down on 29.3% of the runs against them. More first downs means more opportunities to get the ball to Justin Jefferson. We all just saw how explosive Minnesota can be when its backs are against the wall in that thrilling comeback overtime win over the Colts. I’ll lay the points.
Kyle Wood: Broncos -1.5
I take no pleasure in picking the Broncos in a game that I imagine the NFL schedule makers thought to be a potential Super Bowl preview in the national spotlight. Instead, Denver and Los Angeles have both already been eliminated from the playoffs. So I’m trusting in the only unit for either team that’s been serviceable this season: the Broncos defense’ - specifically, its secondary. The unit ranks top five in points allowed, passing yards allowed and, most importantly, is tied for second in interceptions. It seems Denver will have Russell Wilson and Courtland Sutton back and perhaps it can lean on Latavius Murray again after his 100-plus-yard performance on the ground in what’s bound to be a low-scoring affair.
Craig Ellenport: Bills -8.5
Sure, this is a big number to cover. But consider: The Bills have only played four games against teams that currently have a losing record and they’ve won all four games by an average of 18.5 points. In other words, Buffalo may have some kinks to work out before the playoffs start but they don’t let down against bad teams. And while the Bills will have their work cut out for them against Justin Fields, they should be able to score at will against Chicago. The Bears have allowed an average of 33.5 points across their last six games.
Matt Ehalt: 49ers -7.5
The Commanders may have a hard time rebounding from last week’s loss to the Giants and facing the 49ers is a brutal assignment after such a deflating loss. Washington don’t have the weapons to beat this San Francisco defense nor keep up with the 49ers’ offense, which is thriving no matter which quarterback they start. I don’t like the hook here, but will still take the 49ers.
Bill Enright: Browns -3.5
The Saints have struggled against the spread in their last five road games, going 1-4, and the Browns have won their last eight games against teams with a losing record. The weather is supposed to be nasty in Cleveland , resulting in one of the lowest over/under in the last decade (32). Expectation is the Browns will pound the rock with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt and considering the Saints just gave up more than 180 yards to Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier, the Cleveland backs should have plenty of success.
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