2024 NFL Power Rankings: Way-Too-Early Edition

The defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are atop the first check-in of the offseason. But the 49ers aren’t right behind them.

The Super Bowl is over. We gave ourselves a week to collect some thoughts. Now, standing on the doorstep of the NFL combine, we’re ready to begin the sacred process of ranking power again. For more than 17 straight weeks in 2023 and into early 2024, we took you for a ride through the peaks and valleys of an NFL season via this ranking system.

Now, we’re ready to start looking at the NFL from 30,000 feet once again. Let’s get right to it.

1. Kansas City Chiefs

Tucked inside the front cover of the Sports Illustrated Super Bowl commemorative issue, I wrote an essay about the Chiefs crossing the demarcation line between regular old NFL dynasty and the Patriot Space. The downside to this, I argue, is a near universal hatred from everyone else and the deep emptiness of a season that does not end with a Super Bowl title. The positive? Always being No. 1 in the power rankings no matter what. Also, Kansas City has the second-youngest roster in the NFL. So, they’ll be back. 

2. Detroit Lions

The Lions glide into No. 2 in our power rankings for two reasons:

1. They are largely intact as a roster and won’t be drastically changing shape from a financial perspective this offseason.
2. They’ve been stung not by a Super Bowl loss, which is debilitatingly painful, but by an NFC title game loss, which, from an emotional standpoint, is less debilitatingly painful. The Lions have the psychologically favorable road ahead. 

49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk is under contract for one more year, but salary cap issues may force the team’s hand into trading him.

Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports

3. San Francisco 49ers

It’s fair to worry about the 49ers. The Brandon Aiyuk question is a serious one, and while the 49ers could draft his replacement with the capital they’d receive from a trade—Shanahan knows exactly what he wants in a 1-A receiver, which necessitates either the ability to run a full route tree or the ability to wear an opponent down with a combination of speed and physicality—there is always the chance San Francisco would miss. Aiyuk was a largely quiet but essential part of running the scheme to perfection this year. 

The 49ers are one of the oldest teams in the NFL and are relying on veteran players like George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey and Kyle Jusczcyk to not only stay healthy but to maintain their multidimensionality in order to get the looks San Francisco wants from defenses. 

4. Baltimore Ravens

Though the Ravens lost defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald this offseason to Seattle, I’ve heard a lot about his replacement Zach Orr (no relation to me!). Baltimore’s defensive coaching staff is not necessarily a factory, but there is a certain embedded ethos that Orr can follow as a guiding light. Their offseason will be about handling some potentially devastating losses on the personnel front and replenishing a unit that can still be the best in football next season with a little help. 

5. Buffalo Bills

Buffalo’s inability to truly shake up and shake out its roster has been concerning. Now, one of the league’s oldest teams powers into 2024 hoping to succeed via muscle memory. While the division isn’t what it used to be, and both New England and Miami could prove to be something closer to doormats, we’ll either see the true genius of Sean McDermott or the full extent of Buffalo’s hubris during a rapidly closing Super Bowl window. 

6. Cincinnati Bengals

My projected 2024 Super Bowl champion gets its franchise quarterback back and could introduce us to the next great NFL offensive coach: Dan Pitcher. The Bengals played well with a severely injured Burrow and with Jake Browning, finishing a respectable 9–8 amid the best division in football. Now, with cracks showing all over the AFC North facade, the Bengals will make a run avenging their Super Bowl LVI loss. 

7. Dallas Cowboys

Sans Dan Quinn, the Cowboys will try and reload, and reimagine what the Micah Parsons experience looks like. Mike McCarthy may discover how much more difficult life is without a ball hawking, pick-first secondary that returned five interceptions for scores last year and completely humiliated some of the team’s lesser opponents. This is the part of bringing back Mike McCarthy that we’ve been discussing the least. It’s also the most pivotal. Can he re-staff effectively a third time? 

8. Philadelphia Eagles

The panicked staff rearrangement scenario has worked for some coaches and has blown up in the faces of others. Nick Sirianni tabbed two excellent coaches, Vic Fangio and Kellen Moore, to replace the coordinators who struggled last season. But now, he’ll have to rediscover himself and his ability to lift the team out of its complete and total meltdown. He’ll have to do it, quite possibly, without some of the team’s most influential locker room voices. 

9. Green Bay Packers

Pray for the Packers this offseason, who will now shoulder all of your takes and wild-eyed optimism. Matt LaFleur and Brian Gutekunst aced the most significant test of their tenure: a founded confidence in replacing Aaron Rodgers with Jordan Love and turning the locker room over to LaFleur. Now, after nearly tripping up the 49ers in the NFC divisional round, the belief is real (and already, maybe, out of control) heading into 2024. 

10. Cleveland Browns

So, the Browns’ nightmare scenario I conjured up back in late 2022 seems to be coming true a bit. Brian Callahan is gone. The core of their offense is aging rapidly. And Deshaun Watson, despite some promising quarters of football last year, has shown no consistent ability to contend with the modern umbrella NFL defense. While the team was certainly good enough to go on a run with the uneven Joe Flacco under center, it remains to be seen whether Watson is much of an upgrade, and how long the Browns can support him with their roster. 

11. Los Angeles Rams

I’m very bullish on the Rams in 2024 assuming Aaron Donald comes back and the team can adjust his contract to give them more breathing room via free agency. Combine Les Snead’s trademark aggression with an offense unlike any other in the NFL, and we have a team capable of making a very deep run in the open NFC. 

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence ranked 17th with a 56.1 QBR last season, below the likes of Gardner Minshew, Geno Smith and Derek Carr.

Denny Simmons/USA TODAY NETWORK

12. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars were disappointing by every measure in 2023 and very likely need to storm into 2024 to avoid some larger-scale changes. We’ve had some valuable conversations already this offseason about what to do with Travon Walker, but none of that matters until the obvious is addressed: Trevor Lawrence threw fewer touchdowns, more interceptions and was less successful on a down-by-down basis than he was the year prior. I’m betting that doesn’t remain the same, which is why I have the Jaguars mildly high all factors considered. 

13. Indianapolis Colts

I would have enjoyed seeing the final tally for rookie of the year voting had Anthony Richardson gotten the chance to play a full 17-game season with the Colts. I have him as a shoo-in for comeback player of the year if he’s healthy. What Shane Steichen showed us in 2023 was the ability to take a ball of stuff he scooped out of his pocket and transform it into simple gourmet. The Colts were an absolute thorn in everyone’s side this past season, largely with Gardner Minshew at the helm. Better luck on the injury front could produce a division winner in 2024. 

14. Houston Texans

Let’s pump the brakes on Houston’s incredible 2023 run and see it for what it was. C.J. Stroud has the goods, as does Houston’s offensive coordinator, Bobby Slowik. Defensively, DeMeco Ryans was as good as advertised. But the 2024 opponent list doesn’t have many gimmies, and we’ve had mixed results when a previous season’s darling had to dramatically raise its game for the season of truly great expectations. 

15. Los Angeles Chargers

I have no idea where to put the Chargers right now, or what to think of them. But pairing Jim Harbaugh with Joe Horitz is as obvious an upgrade across the board as I can remember in the head coaching/GM space. It used to be impossible to pry the Baltimore lifers out of that front office, but nabbing someone who is not only familiar with the Harbaugh tree, but is also steeped in the organization’s blend of sensible football decision making and ahead-of-the-curve analytics was a profound victory. Harbaugh is going to grab hold of that locker room and give it the violent shake it so desperately needs. 

16. New Orleans Saints

I really liked New Orleans’s offseason. As I mentioned before, it was my understanding that Derek Carr was hoping for someone familiar with his game when it came to a new offensive coordinator. Klint Kubiak never crossed over with the Pro Bowler, but he does come out of Kyle Shanahan’s hot seat. In Kubiak’s position on the powerhouse offensive staff, he had to have all the answers for the league’s most demanding head coach. Read more about that here. 

17. New York Jets

Aaron Rodgers is now, theoretically, back. We have to assume the Jets are who we’d imagined them to be a year prior. They have two of the best defensive players in the NFL and two of the best offensive players in the NFL. That is not nothing, although the challenge this offseason will be creating a real infrastructure with which to tether these star players, and protect them. These Jets have had a habit of seeing their roster cave in late in the season. Joe Douglas badly needs another formative draft. 

18. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers’ strange hesitancy to bring in someone to legitimately challenge either Kenny Pickett or Mason Rudolph is concerning. While that may be what they have to say at this point in the year, one would safely assume Pittsburgh cannot back into 2024 comfortable with a completely blunted attack. Arthur Smith is an upgrade at offensive coordinator, but he is not going to be able to turn Pittsburgh inside out; into a team whose offense can keep pace with a torrid, attacking defense. 

19. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins’ long-term roster planning situation looks disastrous. There aren’t many Tua Tagovailoa upgrades on the horizon, and, like the Buccaneers, Miami seems poised to back itself into some less than ideal, need-based financial decisions. They are also hinging much of their hopes on a soon-to-be 30-year-old Tyreek Hill, whose over-usage contributes each year to questions of late-season availability and effectiveness (even though Tyreek on a sprained ankle is better than 99% of the NFL). The Dolphins also lost Vic Fangio on defense. There hasn’t been much in the way of improvements. 

20. Denver Broncos

It’s safe to assume Sean Payton will upgrade at quarterback this offseason. He’s not going to allow himself to float through the duration of his contract without a Drew Brees-type player. The question is who? As we mentioned in our bold prediction for each team, Payton doesn’t draft quarterbacks much at all. When he does, he’s not very good at it. One has to assume Denver will be throwing elbows in the paint for some kind of veteran boost. A major question: can the Broncos stomach the possibility of a trade after dealing for another QB and a head coach? 

21. Seattle Seahawks

Mike Macdonald’s staff is coming together nicely in Seattle. The snagging of Jake Peetz from the Rams, a major reason behind Los Angeles’ offensive success last year and the development of Puka Nacua, rounds out an offensive coaching crew led by Ryan Grubb. Seattle’s group of assistants should be formidable from the start, and possess a valuable knowledge of the division’s defenses. 

22. Atlanta Falcons

While I think signing Kirk Cousins would be a very strange end to a saga where the Falcons organizationally ignored the position and then blamed its lack of offensive success on a head coach who didn’t have a quarterback, and then hired a defensive head coach only to gift him a quarterback, it’s very NFL. Cousins would put Atlanta in the divisional pole position. 

Cousins is in position to be the most highly sought after quarterback on the free agent market.

Brad Rempel/USA TODAY Sports

23. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are here, but could really end up anywhere. What does the Justin Jefferson deal look like? Do they re-sign Kirk Cousins? Do they have to spend capital to move up for a quarterback? All of these massive decisions will help guide us toward our understanding of whether 2024 is the complete rebuild we all assumed Minnesota was due for, or the continuation of this hang-on-for-dear-life modus operandi. 

24. Chicago Bears

While my take on the Justin Fields question is clear—keep both!—the Bears are about to make one of the more memorable slam dunk picks in recent NFL history. Barring a late charge from the Commanders that includes an absolutely epic haul of picks, or an outright refusal by Williams to play for the Bears, Chicago will have its first franchise quarterback in decades. If they can pick up another offensive piece with their second first-round pick, this is a playoff contender a la the 2023 Texans. 

25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I don’t envy the Buccaneers this offseason. A third offensive coordinator in three years. Having to actually pay Baker Mayfield. Navigating the expenses associated with bringing back Mike Evans. Much of their advantage in the post-Tom Brady era was a kind of experimental, devil-may-care attitude. If Mayfield hit, great. If he didn’t, he would lead them to their quarterback of the future. Now, they are lodged firmly between the team they need to be (younger, more financially agile) and the team they are going to have to be (older, less financially agile). 

26. Tennessee Titans

Brian Callahan put together a strong staff in Tennessee, which will be important in a developmental year for the Titans. The team has undergone a massive identity shift thanks to the aging out of Mike Vrabel’s best rosters. Now, we wait to see what Callahan has in mind. One would imagine a bit of growing pains, but we’ve been surprised before. 

27. Las Vegas Raiders

I’m not going to put a great deal of importance on the Raiders losing out on offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, even though I do think Kingsbury will provide a boost for the Commanders. Luke Getsy was an able play caller in Chicago and has the ability to play to a quarterback’s strengths. The Raiders are not a playoff team as presently constructed, with far too many holes on the offensive side of the ball. Antonio Pierce will also have to prove that he can outcoach the normal lull that accompanies interim-made-full-time head coaches. 

28. New York Giants

The Giants could be en route to a transformative offseason. This team has needed to shed weight for a long time in order to properly recalibrate. Could they take care of both a teardown and a buildup in the same offseason? I’m not one to put undue pressure on Brian Daboll, a person who has consistently shown he can win games despite meager resources. But the honeymoon period could be over for the less impatient among the Giants’ fanbase. 

29. Arizona Cardinals

I keep looking at the draft board and wondering if there is a chance Arizona ends up with Marvin Harrison Jr. What a treat that would be. This offense made the most of its opportunities last year, and with a healthy Kyler Murray, we could see Arizona start making a push toward fringe playoff contention. 

30. Washington Commanders

The hiring of Dan Quinn is going to bring the Commanders to surface level quickly. They’re most likely going to have a rookie QB in Washington, which means a relatively low ceiling—but potentially the beginning of something more sustainably successful. Having Kliff Kingsbury there on a longer-term contract than most coordinators would get suggests the willingness to take time and build.

31. New England Patriots

If this were an advertisement, the pitch would be something like: still the worst roster in football, now with less Bill Belichick! How anyone thinks removing one of the greatest coaches in NFL history will immediately improve the prospects of the team is beyond me. At best, we’re looking for them to safely land the plane when it comes to fixing the QB position. 

32. Carolina Panthers

We liked the Dave Canales hire, especially for Bryce Young. Who knows what the Panthers are capable of this year, but the fact that the Panthers have retained Ejiro Evero shows the arrow pointing upward ever so slightly. Carolina needs to pour resources this offseason into component parts of an offense that can help Young run a more efficient offense with built-in completions. 

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