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Week 12 Thanksgiving Player Props: Bears vs. Lions

Breaking down the Chicago-Detroit game for players to watch and bets to target.

A battle of the NFC North bottom dwellers kicks off a triple-header of NFL action this Thanksgiving.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

  • Moneyline: Chicago (-188) | Detroit (+155)
  • Spread: Chicago -3.5 (-110) | Detroit +3.5 (-110)
  • Total: 41.5 -Over (-110) | Under (-110)
  • Game Info: Nov. 25, 2021, 12:30 p.m. ET | FOX
Detroit Lions running back D'Andre Swift

Justin Fields left Sunday’s contest with a rib injury, and Andy Dalton led the Bears to cover the spread vs. the Ravens (also using a backup QB).

Meanwhile, Detroit also covered the spread vs. the Browns behind Tim Boyle in his first NFL start.

Both teams lost.

Both teams didn’t have their starter.

Only one of these teams has a win this season.

Good thing this is the early game.

If you’re betting on this game, you’re probably a Bears fan.

For now, it looks like Tim Boyle will get an encore and Andy Dalton will start again for the Bears.

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What we know about Tim Boyle is very little. In his first NFL start, he threw for 77 yards with zero TDs and two interceptions. It’s enough to have Lions fans clamoring for the return of Jared Goff. Detroit stayed in this game because of the sheer grit of D’Andre Swift. Swift carried the ball 14 times for 136 yards and a trip to the end zone. Swift was also instrumental the previous week in Detroit’s first week avoiding a loss (instead logging a tie) when he carried the ball a whopping 33 times for 130 yards.

What we know about Andy Dalton is that he has the ability to win a football game. Dalton started only three games for the Bears this year, and he won two of them. The Bears have only three total wins on the season. His line for Sunday: 201 passing yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions.

Defensively, both teams have weaknesses. As a whole, the Lions defense has allowed the third-most points on the season—an average of 27.3 per game. Their run defense has been especially porous, allowing an average of 117 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown per game to opposing running backs. They have also allowed a whopping seven receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs. David Montgomery should be in for a good day.

Chicago has also been poor vs. the run, allowing 107 yards per game to opposing running backs, and I expect D’Andre Swift to command the volume and have another big day. Their secondary also has been suspect, allowing the fourth most yards per game and a total of 12 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers in just 10 games played. Too bad Detroit doesn’t really have any receivers… or a quarterback.

Chicago will win this one and cover the spread. If Allen Robinson misses another game, it won’t matter. If Jared Goff plays, it won’t matter. Dalton should be able to do enough. Darnell Mooney is in for a good day and David Montgomery will feast.

D’Andre Swift anytime TD +115

Quite simply, D’Andre Swift is the only chance the Lions have. He has been an absolute beast the last few weeks, with 266 yards and a TD across the last two games. Not only is he the major rushing threat, he’s also a top receiving option—if the QB can actually get him the ball. Chicago has allowed three rushing TDs to opposing RBs across the last four games. Take this plus money.

David Montgomery over 76.5 rushing yards -120

The Lions are allowing 115 yards per game to opposing running backs, and David Montgomery has had 90% of the rushing attempts since returning from injury. They will grind Monty vs. this soft run defense, and he easily passes this mark. 

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