NFL Week 15 Bad Beats & Big Payouts: Bettors Cash in With Unlikely Buccaneers Prop
Let. Us. See. The. Ticket.
There are those lucky oracles in the world Monday whose holiday started early after they woke up Sunday morning and decided: "You know what? I'm going to bet that the Saints and Buccaneers won't score a touchdown today!"
We don't know why you did it. Betting against MVP frontrunner Tom Brady at home to score one touchdown? One?!?! But maybe seeing those +9000 odds were appetizing. Then again, you're not getting 90-1 odds on something that's likely to happen.
We always try to follow the "As long as the process is sound" philosophy here, but even Michael Jordan threw up some awful shots that went in.
So, congratulations on having your holiday gifts covered today (and for 2022 too?)
Let's dive into the good, the bad and the ugly from Week 15 betting.
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Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
THE GOOD
NO TOUCHDOWN FOR YOU!
It's still stunning that Brady and the Buccaneers, one of the elite offenses in the NFL, could not score a touchdown Sunday night.
It's not as stunning that the Taysom Hill-fueled Saints offense did not.
The Saints have Brady's number, but the Buccaneers still scored 27 earlier this season when they played in New Orleans. Obviously, everything changed in Week 15 when Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette left the game. Those three are critical elements to Tampa Bay's success.
But you would still expect the Buccaneers to find the end zone.
They didn't, and your +9000 ticket cashed.
Amazing.
THANK YOU, BUFFALO
Sunday's biggest spread featured the Bills as 14-point home favorites over the Panthers.
Buffalo led by 10 with 2:12 remaining when it faced a fourth-and-2 at Carolina's 14-yard line. The Bills could have easily kicked a field goal to force Carolina to score two touchdowns to win, but that would have not helped those who took them to cover.
Instead, Josh Allen found Gabriel Davis in the end zone for the second time and the Bills took a 31-14 lead that held.
That's the type of aggressiveness we like to see when we need our tickets to cash.
NO BACKDOOR COVER
If you took the under on the 48 total projection in Cardinals-Lions, you felt good when the Lions took a 30-12 lead with 2:51 left and Kyler Murray did not come out to start the final drive. You figured the Cardinals had raised the white flag.
Then, Colt McCoy led the Cardinals into the red zone with less than 20 seconds remaining. Thankfully for those who had the under, Arizona did not find the end zone and the teams finished with 42 points. A late touchdown would have been a bad beat.
JUST MADE IT
Aaron Rodgers rewarded his backers yesterday by just clearing his props total.
The Packers' quarterback tallied 268 passing yards, barely topping his 266.5 projection. He also tossed three touchdowns to clear his 2.5 touchdowns prop.
The Packers also provided anytime touchdowns for those who backed Davante Adams, Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Pretty, pretty, pretty good.
THE LONE STAR
We'll dive into the ugliness of the Buccaneers-Saints props later, but let's give a shoutout to the one player who definitely won you money: Marquez Callaway.
Callaway finished with six catches for 112 yards, easily clearing his receiving props of 31.5 yards. The other main players in this game did not meet their benchmarks, which is not shocking in a 9-0 game that features no touchdowns.
THE BIG PAYOUTS
We've already discussed the day's biggest payout, but there were also some fun player props that paid out at odds of greater than 10-1.
• Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger: +8000 last touchdown (+1450 anytime)
• 49ers FB Kyle Juszczyk: +2800 first touchdown (+520 anytime)
• Jets WR Braxton Berrios: +1750 first touchdown (+330 anytime)
• 49ers WR Jauan Jennings: +1700 last touchdown (+340 anytime)
• Lions RB Jason Cabinda: +1650 anytime touchdown
• Titans QB Ryan Tannehill: +1550 first touchdown (+300 anytime)
• Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown: +1450 first touchdown (+240 anytime)
• Broncos WR Tim Patrick: +1400 first touchdown (+250 anytime)
• Ravens QB Tyler Huntley: +1300 last touchdown (+220 anytime)
• Ravens TE Mark Andrews: +1250 first touchdown (+190 anytime)
• Bengals WR Tyler Boyd: +1200 last touchdown (+230 anytime)
• Bills WR Gabe Davis: +1100 last touchdown (+200 anytime)
Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY
THE BAD
FOOL ME TWICE...
The Ravens should be commended for almost beating the Packers, owners of the NFL's best record, and for covering a 9.5-point spread.
What hurts here is this marked the second time the Ravens lost because they failed to convert a potential game-winning two-point attempt and this failure cost those brave enough to back the Ravens at +350 on the moneyline. The Ravens also lost to the Steelers in similar fashion earlier this year, but as betting favorites.
While we love the guts and strategy, we did not love the call to take away half the field with a mobile quarterback.
It's worth noting Green Bay would have had time to rally, but at least Baltimore would have the chance to get a stop and win.
TOO LARGE TO COVER
Five of Sunday's games featured double-digit spread, and only two of the favorites successfully covered. If we extend it one extra half-point to 9.5 points, then four of the six did not cover since Green Bay only won by one.
The Cardinals (-12.5), Buccaneers (-11.5) and Dolphins (-10.5) all failed to cover, while the Bills (-14) needed the aforementioned play to cover. The Cowboys (-11.5) covered against the Giants, although that may have had more to do with Mike Glennon.
These failures cost bettors multiple boosted parlays at SI Sportsbook, including a Packers-themed parlay that even had the line down to -6.5 at +450 odds.
OH, JACKSONVILLE
Firing Urban Meyer did not solve all of Jacksonville's problems.
The Jags entered Sunday as six-point home favorites—yes, six points!—against the lowly Texans. And they didn't come close to winning.
We're placing the Jaguars in the bad section, though, because of what they allowed to happen at the end of the game. One may have been tempted to bet the under in a Jaguars-Texans tilt since, well, both teams are terrible.
The total sat at 39.5 and wouldn't you know it, the teams had totaled 39 points with less than three minutes remaining.
The Jags then Jag'd.
Jacksonville allowed a 43-yard touchdown on third-and-9 to push the game past the projection and provide the 30-16 final.
The Jaguars couldn't even stop Davis Mills and the Texans on a third-and-9! Just brutal. Next week's game versus the Jets will be quite the battle.
THE DEFENSIVE COWBOYS?
It's becoming hard to trust any Cowboy offensive player and the Cowboys delivered another uninspiring offensive effort against the Giants.
Dak Prescott failed to clear his passing yards and touchdown prop and CeeDee Lamb did not clear his receiving yards prop.
Dallas' two touchdowns came via a running back and tight end, leaving the receiving trio of Lamb, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup on the outside looking in.
The Cowboys are running out of time to get their offense into form before entering the playoffs, although they are currently tied for the second-best NFC record.
Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
THE UGLY
THIRD TIME ISN'T THE CHARM
The Falcons apparently were inspired by the Chargers on Thursday and decided to follow the gameplan of "leave as many points off the board as you can."
Atlanta had three drives end inside the San Francisco 10-yard line end without points, including their first drive ending at the 1-yard line and two fourth quarter drives.
Those drives land the Falcons in the ugly section since Sunday's game ended with a 31-13 final in a game that featured a 47.5 total.
If you bet the over on this game, it's absolutely infuriating knowing the Falcons left anywhere from 9-21 points off the board. Those failures also prevented the Falcons (+9) from covering, and perhaps even winning on the moneyline (+310).
DOES THIS QUALIFY AS OFFENSE?
We hope you didn't start any Steeler in fantasy this week. To be fair, we could say that about SOOOOO many fantasy-relevant players.
While the Steelers escaped with a 19-13 win over the Titans, their players did not come close to cashing their props.
Najee Harris (26 total yards) fell way short of his rushing yards and combined yards props, Ben Roethlisberger failed to clear his passing yards, completions and passing touchdowns props, and Diontae Johnson (38 yards) and Chase Claypool (12 yards)did not top their receiving yards props.
Roethlisberger provided the only Steelers score for a big payout, as previously mentioned, but that does no good to bettors that backed the playmakers.
UGLY LOSSES
There were probably a sizable amount of parlays that lost Sunday since they featured the Cardinals (-12.5) and Buccaneers (-11.5) winning on the moneyline. Though the Dolphins cover the 10.5 points, they at least managed to win.
Losses by Arizona and Tampa Bay could have significant implications in playoff seeding. Both teams are still playoff threats, but they may not like their matchups or having to travel away from their home stadium.
STILL MYSTIFIED BY THE GAME
Let's dive into the ugliness of the Saints-Buccaneers game from a props and trend betting perspective.
Tampa Bay had been 5-0 Against The Spread (ATS) when favored by at least 11 this year, including 4-0 at home. The Buccaneers also had been 6-0 on the moneyline and 5-1 ATS at home. They sure seemed like a safe bet!
Now, let's analyze the player props.
Alvin Kamara did not come close to his rushing yards or combined yards prop. The under hit on Hill's rushing yards, passing yards, passing touchdowns, and completions.
Brady hit the under on his passing yards, passing touchdowns, completions, and combined yards, and the over on his interceptions prop.
Godwins and Evans didn't clear their receiving props due to injuries.
Just an ugly situation for anyone who targeted player props. And, let's not forget, no player cashed any anytime touchdown prop.
Long live the no touchdown +9000 odds!
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