Betting Roundtable: Super Bowl LVI MVP
The stage is set for Super Bowl LVI!
The NFC champion Rams will meet the AFC champion Bengals in Super Bowl LVI on Sunday, Feb. 13, at 6:30 p.m. ET.
In an interesting turn of events, the NFC champions will host the Super Bowl in their home stadium for the second year in a row.
This past weekend feature another thrilling pair of games.
The road dogs came into Arrowhead and took out the No. 1 seed in overtime (without even the benefit of winning the coin flip!). Joe Burrow took just one sack after taking nine the previous week and even though he only threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns, with the help of rookie kicker Evan McPherson the Bengals mounted an 18-point comeback after the Chiefs took an early lead. They eventually sent the reigning AFC champs home, 27-24, in OT. This will only be Cincinnati’s third trip to the big game in franchise history and will be looking for their first Lombardi trophy.
The Rams finally broke their six-game losing streak to the 49ers with their 20-17 win. Both Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckam, Jr. shined, with Kupp tallying 11 catches for 142 yards and two touchdowns and OBJ collecting nine catches for 113 yards.
Matt Stafford finished the day with 337 yards, 2 touchdowns and a 69% completion rate. That was enough offense to overcome the Niners' strong defense, as Los Angeles’s Travin Howard came up big with the interception at the end of the game to seal the win for the Rams. This will be Stafford’s first trip to the big game, and Sean McVay’s second. Both will be looking for their first Super Bowl win.
SI Sportsbook currently has the Rams favored by four poitns with a game total of 48.5.
So, let’s call it now! Who will be the Super Bowl LVI MVP?
There are lots of stars to choose from. Will it be a QB for the 32nd time? Or will another offensive player shine? There’s certainly plenty of stars to choose from - including players likely to win Offensive Player of the Year and Offensive Rookie of the Year. Or will it be a defensive player that makes the difference?
I asked the betting team at Sports Illustrated to tell me where they are putting their money.
Check the Latest Lines at SI Sportsbook
Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP
SI Betting's Matt Ehalt:
I learned my lesson last year to not be cute and bet a defensive lineman to win Super Bowl MVP. I took a shot on Jason Pierre-Paul at great odds, but this award is more often that not going to a quarterback. A quarterback has won this award nine times in the past 12 games, with Julian Edelman (WR), Von Miller (LB) and Malcolm Smith (LB) the exceptions. I don't love the odds on the quarterbacks here, so let's go with Cooper Kupp at +600. Kupp has been the Rams' best player all season and all postseason, and there are plenty of reasons to believe he could have another epic day that results in him winning this award. The Bengals will have their hands full with Kupp.
BET: Cooper Kupp (+600)
MMQB's Gary Gramling:
Von Miller has spoken quite a bit about how this Rams team reminds him of the Broncos Super Bowl team he played on—and, of course, that year he won Super Bowl MVP. One of the big storylines of Super Bowl LVI is the atrocious right side of the Bengals’ offensive line, and there’s little doubt Rams DC Raheem Morris will line up Aaron Donald and Von Miller next to each other on that side of the formation often. Donald is, obviously, the more dominant player, but Miller has more juice with the odds. Ja’Marr Chase (+1400), from whom the Bengals need (and could get) a superhuman performance, is interesting among the more realistic choices.
BET: Von Miller (+8000)
SI Betting and Fantasy's Kyle Wood:
I like the Bengals to win the Super Bowl, and there's only one player who's leading them to victory. His name is Joe Burrow. The second-year pro quarterbacked Cincinnati to two wins over the Chiefs in a calendar month and put an end to the city's well-documented playoff woes. He's likable, stylish and, most importantly, he's balling. If the Bengals' line can keep him from looking like Patrick Mahomes in last year's Super Bowl, Burrow should be able to distribute the ball to his host of capable receivers and keep the offense moving in the right direction. Besides, if the Rams win, I can see Cooper Kupp or any number of L.A.'s defensive stars earning MVP honors over Matt Stafford, the favorite. L.A. isn't my pick, but if it were, I would not go chalk.
BET: Joe Burrow (+210)
Eric Gay/AP
SI Fantasy's Craig Ellenport:
While the Rams narrative all season has been about the players they imported -- Matthew Stafford, Odell Beckham, Von Miller -- for this Super Bowl run, I’ll focus on one of their superstars that was already in the fold. Aaron Donald led a defense that held Tom Brady and the Patriots to 13 points in Super Bowl LIII. If you watched Donald down the stretch of Sunday’s NFC title game, you saw a man possessed. The three-time Defensive Player of the Year will wreak havoc on Joe Burrow in Super Bowl LVI. Burrow did an amazing job avoiding sacks against K.C. in the AFC title game, but his o-line is still a liability. Unlike Chris Jones and the Chiefs' defense, Donald will finish the job.
BET: Aaron Donald (+2000)
SI Betting's Frank Taddeo:
I am glad my colleague Jen has opened up this discussion. This affords me the opportunity to discuss something that is very valuable from a betting standpoint. If you are of the conviction that the Bengals will win Super Bowl LVI, you may be looking at the moneyline at odds of +160. However, if you believe Cincinnati will win you are better served investing in Joe Burrow for MVP at odds of +210. Let's be hones: If the Bengals are to defeat the Rams, the likelihood that Burrow has a big game is immense. So you are better served investing in Burrow in this market as opposed to the moneyline at lower odds. Nevertheless, for me, I believe the Rams' defensive line will simply be too much for the Bengals' weak offensive line. The best wide receiver in the NFL is very attractive in this market. Cooper Kupp (+600) has 140-plus receiving yards in consecutive playoff games and I will be all-in on betting the over in his receptions and yards market in the Super Bowl. However, the real value here is Odell Beckham Jr. at odds of +2500. Kupp will draw all the attention and OBJ will step up on the biggest stage. I hit massively on Julian Edelman at odds of +4500 several years ago and I will once again shoot for the moonshot payout on Feb. 13!
BET: Odell Beckham Jr (+2500)
SI Betting and Fantasy’s Jennifer Piacenti:
Since I already have a +800 futures bet from last week that the Bengals will win the Super Bowl, as much as I want to pick Cooper Kupp (+600) or Aaron Donald (+2000), I have to back my play. The obvious pick is, of course, Joe Burrow (+210), who has been a superstar, and if he can manage to stay upright he has the weapons with Ja’Marr Chase (+1400) and Tee Higgins (+5000) to lead an offensive explosion. But, as you’ve probably figured out by now, if I’m betting this game, I’m betting big. That’s why I am going with a the first ever kicker - and ROOKIE kicker - to take home the prize. Now, before you laugh, let’s review just how valuable Evan McPherson has been to this club. Without McPherson, it’s unlikely they would be here today. He’s made game-winning kicks versus. both the Titans and the Chiefs, not to mention the 52-yarder he kicked to give the Bengal’s the 24-21 lead after their furious 18-point comeback. He’s been perfect in the postseason and only needs three more field goals to break Adam Vinatieri’s record of 14 in a single postseason. Let’s face it: these games are often decided by a field goal. Kickers are people, too, and I’m taking one at +10000 for Super Bowl MVP.
BET: Evan McPherson (+10000)
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Check the Latest Lines at SI Sportsbook
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• As It Happened: Rams Defeat 49ers
• How The Rams and Bengals Got Here
• My Favorite Bet: First Super Bowl Score
