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2022 PGA Championship Betting Preview: Scottie Scheffler Enters as Golfer to Beat

Betting analysis for the 2022 PGA Championship. Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite at SI Sportsbook entering the week.

Over the past five seasons, four top players (Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka (2), Collin Morikawa) have won the PGA Championship as rotating courses.

Phil Mickelson turned in a stunning victory last year at Kiawah Island to capture his second title at the event at the age of 50.

The last time (2007) the PGA Championship was held at Southern Hills in Tulsa, Okla., Tiger Woods brought home his fourth victory. To get a feel for the top-10 players over the last five years, here’s a look at the results:

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Here’s a look at the previous five winners by their betting odds:

2021 – Phil Michelson (250-1)
2020 – Collin Morikawa (30-1)
2019 – Brooks Koepka (10-1)
2018 – Brooks Koepka (18-1)
2017 – Justin Thomas (35-1)

SI Sportsbook has a complete list of odds for the 2022 PGA Championship.

Scottie Scheffler tees off on the 13th hole during the second round of the AT&T Byron Nelson golf tournament in McKinney, Texas, on Friday, May 13, 2022.

Chalk

Scottie Scheffler (+1100)

Scheffler has been the hottest golfer since the beginning of February. He has four wins over his last eight events with one other top-10 finish (seventh). After wins at the Waste Management and the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Scheffler pushed his game even higher with victories at WGC–Dell Technologies and the Masters.

Since the middle of October, he has been 160 under par over 56 stroke-play rounds. In his first PGA Championship in 2020, Scheffler finished tied for fourth with a score of -10 (eighth in 2021). He is in top form and his game has reached an elite level in 2022, making him the player to beat in this year’s PGA Championship.

Jon Rahm (+1200)

Rahm is slightly behind Scheffler but has the second-best betting odds. He picked up his first win this season in late April at the Mexico Championship with four scores in the 60s (64, 66, 68 and 69). However, over his previous five events, Rahm fell short of expectations (21st, 17th, 55th, ninth and 27th) while going one over par for his 16 stroke-play rounds. In his five trips to the PGA Championship, he has one missed cut and two top 10s (fourth and eighth). Rahm is an excellent player, but his game is not in the same realm as Scottie Scheffler at this point of the season.

Rory McIlroy (+1400)

McIlroy has played in 11 events since the Ryder Cup, leading to a win (The CJ CUP) and four other top 10s (sixth, third, second and and fifth). Despite some recent success at the Masters (second) and Wells Fargo Championship (fifth), he shot 72 or higher in 11 of his last 18 rounds. McIlroy played in 13 events at the PGA Championship with a pair of wins (2012 and 2014) and six top 10s. His last major win came well over seven years ago. He has the game to win, but McIlroy tends to lack the fire with his putter on too many holes to win against the world’s best.

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Collin Morikawa (+1800)

Morikawa played at a high level over four events last fall, leading to a win at the DP World Tour Championship and three other top 10s (seventh, fifth and fifth) while going 60 under par over 16 rounds. Over 10 tournaments in 2022, he finished in the top 10 four times (fifth, second, ninth and fifth). In addition, Morikawa has a win and an eighth-place finish in his only two PGA Championships. His only strike is that he hasn’t played in an event since the third week in April.

Jordan Spieth (+1800)

Spieth should be one of the top choices for this year’s PGA Championship based on recent form (a win and second-place finish over the past two weeks). He needs a PGA Championship title to complete the major grand slam. Spieth finished in the top 10 in one-third of his majors while making the cut seven times in nine events at the PGA Championship. His best two finishes came in 2015 (2nd) and 2019 (3rd).

FILE - Xander Schauffele reacts to his shot out of the rough along the second fairway during the final round of the PGA Zurich Classic golf tournament at TPC Louisiana in Avondale, La., Sunday, April 24, 2022.

Best Values by Odds

Xander Schauffele (+2500)

After earning four career wins by the first week of January 2019, Schauffele worked his way to second in the World Golf Rankings. After that, however, he didn’t win another event (over 170 weeks) until the Zurich Classic in April, when Schauffele paired with Patrick Cantlay. His game had follow-through at the AT&T Byron Nelson over his final three rounds (67, 65, 61), pointing to him coming into the PGA Championship in form. He has yet to win a major title in 19 attempts (eight top 10s).

Hideki Matsuyama (+3000)

Since winning the 2021 Masters, Matsuyama added three more victories over his following 23 events while also adding three top 10s (sixth, eighth and third). He finished 14th in this year’s Masters, but Matsuyama took the next four tournaments off to help correct neck and back issues.

Last week, he shot under 70 in all four rounds (67, 66, 69 and 62) to finish third in the AT&T Bryon Nelson. In his nine trips to the PGA Championship, Matsuyama made the cut in every event, with his best two showings coming in 2016 (4th) and 2017 (5th).

Cameron Young watches his tee shot on the third hole during the final round of the Wells Fargo Championship golf tournament, Sunday, May 8, 2022, at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm golf club in Potomac, Md.

Home Run Picks

Cameron Young (+7000)

Young already has three second-place finishes and one third-place finish over 15 events in his first full season on the PGA Tour while winning $3.3 million (15th). After missing the cut at the Masters (77/77), Young had success at the RBC Heritage (second) and Wells Fargo Championship (third).

His next step in growth will come in his success in major events.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+12500)

Bezuidenhout played 31 events on the PGA Tour since July 2020 and only has one top 10 (seventh) over this span, but Bezuidenhout played on the weekend in every stroke play event except two. Last week, he finished 12th at the AT&T Byron Nelson with a score of -20. Three of his four pro wins came in 2020 on the European Tour. I expect his stock to continue to rise with each week of experience in the US. Bezuidenhout made the cut in his last five majors, but he has yet to finish inside the top 30.

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