Preakness 147: Betting Profiles for Top Contenders, Value Long Shots
Horse racing fans who are still in shock after witnessing the second-biggest upset in the history of the illustrious Kentucky Derby will now concentrate their bankrolls on Saturday’s 147th running of the Preakness Stakes.
Epicenter, who came up short as the post-time betting favorite to Rich Strike in the Run for the Roses, will once again be the favorite at 6-5 odds on the morning line.
Early Voting, the second betting choice at 7-2 odds, is joined by D. Wayne Lukas’ Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath (9-2) at the top of the betting board among a solid field of nine entrants.
Be sure to check back here at SI Betting on Friday as I will have a full betting breakdown with exotic wagers as we look to go back-to-back after nailing the 2021 Preakness winner Rombauer as our top long shot winner at 11-1odds, as well as the exacta at 49-1 odds and topped off with a score in the trifecta at 163-1 odds!
Check the Latest Odds and Lines at SI Sportsbook
Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports
2022 PREAKNESS STAKES BETTING PROFILES
TOP CONTENDERS
Epicenter (6-5)
POST NUMBER: No. 8
JOCKEY: Joel Rosario / TRAINER: Steven M. Asmussen
RECORD: 7 starts: 4-2-0
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 105
RUNNING STYLE: Pacesetter
Epicenter went off as the 4-1 favorite in the Kentucky Derby but to the dismay of his backers he was passed by massive Kentucky Derby 80-1 upset winner Rich Strike just before the finish line. The talented colt has found the winners circle in four of his seven starts, while also impressively hitting the board in six of seven overall. Epicenter holds wins in the Risen Star Stakes and the Louisiana Derby earlier this year and is the clear leader in this field of nine.
The main track at Pimlico is often kind to speed horses, but Steve Asmussen’s prized trainee will not be alone on the lead in a race that appears to have a lot of early pace. The major question handicappers must answer is whether being wheeled back in just two weeks for the first time in his career, combined with the added travel, will cause him to be a vulnerable favorite?
Early Voting (7-2)
POST NUMBER: No. 5
JOCKEY: Jose Ortiz / TRAINER: Chad Brown
RECORD: 3 starts: 2-1-0
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 102
RUNNING STYLE: Pacesetter/Presser
Early Voting has been installed as the biggest threat to upset Epicenter after Chad Brown opted to skip the Kentucky Derby, instead aiming the son of Gun Runner for the second leg of the Triple Crown. Jockey Jose Ortiz will look to place Early Voting on the lead Saturday breaking from post No. 5.
Prior to the Wood Memorial, Early Voting had won both of his first two career starts - which included an impressive wire-to-wire win in the Withers Stakes on Feb. 5. How will Early Voting respond in his first race away from the surface of Aqueduct in only his fourth career start?
Secret Oath (9-2)
POST NUMBER: No. 4
JOCKEY: Luis Saez / TRAINER: D. Wayne Lukas
RECORD: 8 starts: 5-0-2
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 105
RUNNING STYLE: Stalker
Now the fun begins. Trainer D. Wayne Lucas has decided to run his prized filly against the boys in the Preakness. Secret Oath was last seen winning the Kentucky Oaks in impressive fashion, an effort that earned her a career-best 105 Equibase Speed Figure. The talented daughter of Arrogate has won three of four starts in 2022, and is easily one of the top contenders in this year’s Preakness.
Lucky number seven? Lukas, who will look to pull even with Bob Baffert and Robert Wyndham Walden for the most wins in Preakness history (seven), also is affording Secret Oath the opportunity to become just the seventh filly to win the Preakness Stakes. If she is able to find the winner’s circle Saturday, she would join the exclusive company of Flocarline (1903), Whimsical (1906), Rhine Maiden (1915), Nellie Morse (1924), Rachel Alexandra (2009) and Swiss Skydiver (2020).
Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports
VALUE LONG SHOTS
Simplification (6-1)
POST NUMBER: No. 1
JOCKEY: Jose Velazquez / TRAINER: Antonio Sano
RECORD: 8 starts: 3-1-2
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 101
RUNNING STYLE: Pace presser
Simplification ran a solid fourth closing hard in the Kentucky Derby, which earned him a career-best 101 Equibase Speed Figure. He started off the year finishing second in the Holy Bull and then came back a month later and won the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Prior to the Kentucky Derby, he finished third in the Florida Derby on April 2.
Although it’s concerning to see jockey Jose Ortiz opt off his mount on Simplification in favor of riding Early Voting, the addition of Johnny V in the saddles is a solid swap. Simplification has hit the board in six of eight starts and thus will be an attractive entrant to key on the bottom rung of all exotic tickets.
Creative Minister (10-1)
POST NUMBER: No. 2
JOCKEY: Brian Hernandez Jr. / TRAINER: Kenny McPeek
RECORD: 3 starts: 2-1-0
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 108
RUNNING STYLE: Mid-pack / Closer
Looking for the true wild card among the new shooters in the Preakness? Well, look no further. As everyone who follows my respected information from Las Vegas knows, you always follow the money. How does that apply to Creative Minister on Saturday? Simple. The connections for this rapidly improving colt decided to pay a whopping $150,000 to earn his spot in the race.
On the undercard on Derby Day, Creative Minister scored impressively by winning an allowance-optional claiming race that earned an eye-opening 108 Equibase Speed Figure. Just how good is that number? It’s the best among the entire field in the 147th running of thePreakness Stakes. One word sums up this Ken McPeek entry: intriguing.
Skippylongstocking (20-1)
POST NUMBER: No. 9
JOCKEY: Junior Alvarado / TRAINER: Saffie Joseph Jr.
RECORD: 9 starts: 2-1-2
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 100
RUNNING STYLE: Mid-Pack
Skippylongstocking enters the Preakness as the horse with the most experience with nine career starts under his belt. His last two races have shown promise following an allowance-optional claiming victory at Gulfstream Park in March that earned him his only triple-digit (100) Equibase Speed Figure of his career, as well as a third-place effort in the Wood Memorial Stakes behind Mo Donegal and Early Voting
History tells us that Skippylongstocking has the pedigree to win this race being the son of 2016 Preakness winner Exaggerator. At healthy odds of 20-1 this Saffie Joseph trainee is the perfect moon shot target for trifecta and superfecta wagers.
BY THE NUMBERS : EQUIBASE TOP SPEED FIGURES
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
Check the Latest Odds at SI Sportsbook
Get fantasy and betting analysis in your inbox by signing up for the Winners Club newsletter
More Betting, Fantasy and Horse Racing:
• NBA Futures Betting Advice
• NBA Western Conference Finals Betting Preview
• NBA Eastern Conference Finals Betting Preview
• PGA Championship Betting Preview
• Preakness Post Positions
• NHL Second-Round Series Betting Previews
• Roundtable: Favorite NFL Over/Under
• Five-Best NFL Games to Bet
• Best/Worst NFL Fantasy Playoffs Schedules
• Why Skip The Triple Crown? Rich Strike’s Owners Explain
