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MLB American League Pennant, Division Future Odds: Yankees, Astros on Collision Course

The Yankees are favored at SI Sportsbook to win the American League pennant but face stiff competition in the Astros. Plus, betting analysis for all three divisions.

We are less than two weeks from the All-Star Break, so it’s time to check in on the American League pennant and AL division odds.

Here is the current AL pennant market at SI Sportsbook:

2022 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENANT ODDS

New York Yankees +170
Houston Astros +250
Toronto Blue Jays +550
Boston Red Sox +1000
Tampa Bay Rays +1100
Chicago White Sox +1300
Minnesota Twins +1400
Cleveland Guardians +3000
Los Angeles Angels +3500
Seattle Mariners +4500
Texas Rangers +9000
Baltimore Orioles +45000
Kansas City Royals +45000
Oakland Athletics +50000

Jun 26, 2022; Bronx, New York, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena (3) forces out New York Yankees designated hitter Josh Donaldson (28) and throws to first to complete a double play on a ball hit by Yankees left fielder Aaron Hicks (not pictured) during the fifth inning at Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees are the heavy favorites to win the AL pennant with +170 odds after opening the season with +600 odds.

The Bronx Bombers have done everything well this season due to their stellar pitching and hitting. They own the best record in the majors, the largest run differential and they have a 13-game lead over the second-place Red Sox, whose +1000 odds to win the AL pennant are the same as they were on Opening Day.

The Astros have moved to +250 odds after opening at +450 odds, and they are the only team with with a winning series record against the Yankees (3-2 with two games to be played July 21). Houston has the third-best ERA in the league behind the Yankees and Dodgers, and there is more value with picking Houston than New York.

The third-place White Sox have fallen after opening as the AL co-favorites with +400 odds and now have +1300 odds, while the first-place Twins have moved to +1400 odds after beginning the season with the ninth-best odds of +2000.

Anything can happen, but if the pennant doesn’t go to the Astros then it should go to an AL East team.

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Jun 28, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27, right) is greeted by team mates after he hit a walkoff single RBI against the Boston Red Sox in the ninth inning at Rogers Centre.

AL EAST ODDS

New York Yankees -2500
Toronto Blue Jays +1400
Boston Red Sox +1800
Tampa Bay Rays +4000
Baltimore Orioles +50000

If you wanted to bet the Yankees to win this division, I hope you did so before the season started. The Yankees opened the season with +225 odds and behind the Blue Jays, who were the division favorites with +165 odds.

Where it sits now, there is no value. Sure, could the Jays or the Red Sox win the division? Yeah. But with the Yankees owning a 13-game lead and no signs of slowing down, I would rather bet on the Jays or Sox to win the World Series than the division.

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I can see a pathway for them to the World Series through the Wild Card. I just can’t see a pathway to the division title.

Jun 29, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) throws to first base in the second inning against the Minnesota Twins at Progressive Field.

AL CENTRAL ODDS

Minnesota Twins -111
Chicago White Sox +163
Cleveland Guardians +333
Detroit Tigers +25000
Kansas City Royals +50000

This division is wide open. The Twins are 4.5 games up on Cleveland, and the White Sox are still below .500 with a 39-41 record that has them in third place and trailing Minnesota by 6.5 games. It’s a long season, and all of these teams have flaws.

I might take a gamble on the Guardians at +333 odds.

Somehow, the Guardians keep exceeding expectations. They opened at +900 odds for the division title and with AL MVP candidate Jose Ramirez as well as some promising young rookie talent, the Guardians could pull off an upset.

I’m staying away from the White Sox, who opened as the heavy favorites at -222 odds. It’s just not enough value to take the gamble.

Jul 5, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman (2) celebrates left fielder Yordan Alvarez (44) home run the eighth inning at Minute Maid Park.

AL WEST ODDS

Houston Astros -10000
Los Angeles Angels +2500
Seattle Mariners +3500
Texas Rangers +4000
Oakland Athletics +50000

There is no value now, and there was no value at the beginning of the season for the Astros who opened with -188 odds.

With a 13.5-game lead over the second-place Mariners, it looks like the Astros have all but punched their postseason ticket. No other team in the AL West is even at .500, so the Astros are the heaviest favorites for a division right now in all of baseball.

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