NFL Week 1 Betting Recap: Bad Beats and Big Payouts
The under and heavy underdogs ruled the first Sunday of the 2022 NFL season. The under cashed in nine of 14 games Sunday (and Thursday’s Bills-Rams game), while six underdogs of at least 5.5 points covered against the spread.
Week 1 featured several notable upsets that came down to the wire, including last year’s AFC champion losing at home in overtime to the team projected to finish last in the division and last year’s AFC 1-seed losing to a 2021 last-place team.
Most of the standout receivers who changed teams this offseason shined in their debuts with their new franchises, while several star running backs struggled.
A fullback even found the end zone at 125-1 odds.
Here’s the good, the bad and the ugly from Week 1 betting.
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THE GOOD
Winning as a dog
The Steelers, Bears and Giants rewarded those who backed them as moneyline underdogs against playoff teams from last season.
Pittsburgh paid out at +260 odds on the moneyline, Chicago won as a +240 underdog and the Giants escaped Nashville as a +205 moneyline winner.
The Steelers and Bears were both seven-point underdogs, while the Giants received 5.5 points from the SI Sportsbook oddsmakers.
Moneyline underdogs went 4-9-1 overall and are 4-10-1 on the season.
Avoiding the push
Those who bet the under in the Giants-Titans game had to sweat out the final seconds of the Giants’ 21-20 victory. The total had been set at 44 points and a Titans’ field goal would have resulted in a push but Randy Bullock missed the kick.
New spots, same outcome
A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams each landed with new teams this offseason and they rewarded both their teams and bettors.
Brown, now with the Eagles, tallied 10 catches for 155 yards against the Lions to clear his projections of 4.5 catches and 65.5 yards.
Hill, traded from the Chiefs to the Dolphins, registered eight catches for 94 yards in the win over the Patriots, topping his projections of 5.5 catches for 64.5 yards.
Adams, reunited with Derek Carr in Las Vegas, dominated the Chargers to the tune of 10 catches for 141 yards and one touchdown. He topped his projections of 6.5 catches and 79.5 receiving yards and made it look rather easy.
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First, last, anytime
We love to point out the touchdown bets that cashed. Here are some notable ones, including a 125-1 bet cashing on a player you’ve never heard of:
Chargers FB Zander Horvath first touchdown: +12500
Patriots RB Ty Montgomery last touchdown: +3300
Bears RB Khalil Herbert last touchdown: +2500
Titans RB Dontrell Hilliard first touchdown: +2500
Jets TE Tyler Conklin last touchdown: +2000
Saints QB/TE Taysom Hill first touchdown: +1700
Commanders WR Curtis Samuel first touchdown: +1600
Ravens WR Devin Duvernay first touchdown: +1550
Cardinals TE Zach Ertz last touchdown: +1450
Lions RB Jamaal Williams first touchdown: +1400
Lions WR D.J. Chark last touchdown: +1300
Panthers WR Robbie Anderson last touchdown: +1250
Commanders WR Jahan Dotson last touchdown: +1250
Just made it
Here are some players who just cleared their yards props.
Jaguars RB Travis Etienne 46.5 rushing yards: 47
Commanders QB Carson Wentz 11.5 rushing yards: 12
Eagles RB Kenneth Gainwell O/U 19.5 rushing yards: 20
Good start
Jonathan Taylor’s quest to repeat as rushing champ began in strong fashion with the Colts’ running back rushing for 161 yards and a touchdown, easily topping his prop of 93.5 yards. Taylor also caught four passes to cash the over on his prop of 2.5 receptions. His anytime touchdown bet cashed at -275 odds.
This is worth noting as several other star running backs did not have banner days, as we will discuss in the bad section.
Run, run, run
Those who bet the over on rushing yards props in the Eagles-Lions game came away quite satisfied as Miles Sanders, Jalen Hurts, Kenneth Gainwell and D’Andre Swift all topped their props. Hurts (passing/rushing) and Swift and Sanders (receiving/rushing) also each topped their combination yards props.
All four players found the end zone, making the day even more profitable.
Rain, rain, rain
Fading the pass-catchers in the Bears-49ers game proved to be an example of good results following a sound strategy.
Darnell Mooney did not come close to his projections of 4.5 catches for 54.5 yards since he had just one catch for eight yards. Teammate Cole Kmet, a potential fantasy football sleeper, did not tally a single catch in a dud of a showing.
Brandon Aiyuk had the best day of the three but his two catches for 40 yards fell short of his projection of 49.5 receiving yards.
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THE BAD
Houston, we blew the win
Sure, we could give the Texans a pass here. They did at least cover as 7-point home underdogs in their 20-20 tie against the Colts.
What we ding the Texans for is failing to reward those who backed them on the moneyline at +260 odds by blowing a 20-3 fourth-quarter lead. The Texans allowed the Colts to score 17 consecutive points in the fourth quarter.
Where are the points?
The under cashed in nine of 14 games Sunday, including four of the five games in the 4 p.m. window and the Buccaneers-Cowboys Sunday night game.
The Chiefs-Cardinals game, which had the highest projected total of 54 points, proved to be the only late matchup that featured the over cashing.
The Bills and Rams combining for just 41 points in the opener apparently provided a preview of how Week 1 would unfold in terms of over/under betting.
Top backs disappoint
Four first- or second-round fantasy picks and consensus top running backs disappointed both bettors and fantasy players Sunday.
Christian McCaffrey, likely the first or second player drafted, tallied just 57 total yards (33 rushing yards, 24 receiving yards) against the Browns. He fell below his props of 118.5 total yards, 66.5 rushing yards, 44.5 receiving yards and 5.5 catches.
Austin Ekeler, a top-five pick, had just 36 rushing yards, falling short of his 57.5 yards projection, and his four catches fell short of his 4.5 catches projection. Ekeler totaled just 72 yards in the win, below his 95.5 yards prop.
Derrick Henry, a fellow first-round pick, failed to top 110.5 combo yards, 96.5 rushing yards, 10.5 receiving yards and 1.5 receptions, and actually did not catch a pass. He also failed to score while Dontrell Hilliard found the end zone twice.
Alvin Kamara, who slipped to the second round in some drafts, netted just 39 rushing yards with his prop set at 60.5 in the Saints’ win over the Falcons. He also had just seven receiving yards to fall way short of his 95.5 combo yards prop.
Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Not like the others
While the other receivers in new spots thrived, former Cowboy Amari Cooper disappointed in his first game with the Browns.
Cooper had just three catches for 17 yards, falling way short of his props of 4.5 receptions and 48.5 yards.
It didn’t help that quarterback Jacoby Brissett did not play all that well. Brissett failed to top his rushing yards, passing touchdowns and passing yards props.
Not in a rush
Lamar Jackson is known for his rushing prowess and 59.5 rushing yards seemed like a reasonable prop Sunday against the Jets.
Jackson, though, only rushed six times for 17 yards. The Ravens struggled to rush the ball and Jackson instead did most of his damage through the air.
Jackson’s low rushing total prevented his combo yards prop from cashing.
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THE UGLY
Big favorites don’t deliver
Six sizable favorites who laid at least 5.5 points all failed to cover Sunday and went just 2-3-1 straight-up. The Bengals (-7) and Titans (-5.5), last year’s AFC champion and 1-seed, respectively, lost at home to the Steelers and Giants, respectively. Tennessee lost as a -250 moneyline favorite and blew a 13-point second half lead.
The Colts (-7) only managed a tie against the lowly Texans, while the 49ers (-7) flopped in the rain against the Bears as -300 moneyline favorites.
Kicking issues
While the Bengals still would not have covered, they had a chance to at least win after Ja’Marr Chase tied the game with two seconds left. They just needed to convert the extra point to win and reward their moneyline backers.
But the Steelers had other plans.
Pittsburgh blocked the extra point and postseason hero Evan McPherson later missed a potential game-winning 29-yard field goal in overtime. The Bengals’ loss burned those who took Cincinnati at -333 odds on the moneyline.
Just missed
Here are some of the prop bets that just missed in agonizing fashion.
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor 14.5 receiving yards: 14
Commanders WR Terry McLaurin 59.5 receiving yards: 58
Commanders RB Antonio Gibson 58.5 rushing yards: 58
Saints WR Chris Olave 42.5 receiving yards: 41
Browns QB Jacoby Brissett 10.5 rushing yards: 10
Chargers WR Keenan Allen 67.5 receiving yards: 66
Chargers QB Justin Herbert 280.5 passing yards: 279
Missing in action
Two notable second-year players failed to show up Sunday, along with a receiver who just got a new contract.
Kyle Pitts, a premium draft pick expected to produce like an elite tight end, tallied just two catches for 19 yards. His over/under was 4.5 catches for 55.5 yards.
But at least he caught a pass.
DeVonta Smith may as well have taken the week off since he recorded a goose egg. Four passes came his way and he snagged zero.
Not what you want from a pair of former first-round picks.
Mike Williams, who signed a three-year, $60 million contract, had just two catches for 10 yards against the Raiders in an underwhelming performance.
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