NFL Player Props: Kyle Pitts Receptions, Yards, Touchdowns Bets Breakdown

Breaking down Kyle Pitts’s receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns prop bets.

Author:
Kyle Wood
Publish date:
Sep 2, 2022

In this story:

Kyle Pitts lived up to his pre-draft hype.

The overwhelming athlete out of Florida turned in the second-best season for a rookie tight end ever last year. He eclipsed 1,000 yards in an abysmal offense and returns as the Falcons’ unquestioned No. 1 option with suspended receiver Calvin Ridley out of the equation. The quarterback downgrade from Matt Ryan to Marcus Mariota and/or rookie Desmond Ridder is the only real mark against Pitts.

He hit the over on just one of these three props as a rookie, though the expectation is for his below average touchdown scoring to regress to the mean.

Which props can we bank on Pitts to hit this season?

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Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts (8) runs a route against the Detroit Lions during an NFL football game, Friday, Aug. 12, 2022, in Detroit. — Rick Osentoski/AP

Receiving Yards: Over 950.5 (-112) | Under 950.5 (-112)

Pitts cleared his receiving yard mark with 1,026 as a rookie to lead Atlanta. His 110 targets also paced the team, and he should not only repeat that in Year 2 but be in line for even more work. The Falcons lost their second-, fourth-, fifth- and sixth-leading target-getters. Only Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson return from that group of the six most-targeted players in the offense. The Falcons drafted Drake London at No. 8 and traded for Bryan Edwards, but Pitts is still the No. 1 option.

He fielded double-digit targets in a game just once as a rookie and turned those 10 opportunities into the first of three 100-yard games. Pitts’s week-to-week consistency can improve—he followed a career-best 163-yard game with 13 yards and posted eight yards in Week 18 after finishing with 69 yards the week before.

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If Pitts is more involved in the offense, he’ll easily smash this total once again. He led all tight ends in yards per catch (15.1) and finished 15th among qualified pass-catchers between Mike Williams and Justin Jefferson. Pretty good company.

Of course, his yards per catch might dip if he starts to field more passes closer to the line of scrimmage, but Pitts is one of the few tight ends in the league capable of making big plays after the catch. The circumstances aren’t much better in Year 2, but I believe Pitts will be. Bet on another 1,000-yard campaign.

BET: Over 950.5 receiving yards (-112)

Receiving Touchdowns: Over 5.5 (-118) | Under 5.5 (-118)

Based on how involved and how good Pitts was a season, he significantly underperformed on his touchdown expectations. He found the end zone just once in an anemic Falcons offense. There’s little reason to expect the offense to be much better this year, but Pitts’ touchdown scoring should improve to the mean while Patterson’s should also regress there.

Pitts led the Falcons in red zone targets last season with 14. He caught just four of those passes inside the 20 for his lone score. Compare that with his teammates’ production: Russell Gage caught eight of 13 targets for three scores, Patterson hauled in nine of 12 looks for four and Ridley snagged seven of 10 for two.

Gage and Ridley will not be playing for the Falcons this year, which means Pitts should command more high-value targets near the goal line and, ideally, catch a higher percentage of those balls.

A five-touchdown improvement still feels a little rich, even for all of Pitts’s talent. I certainly believe he’ll go over his measly end zone production from last season but six scores in this offense is a high mark. Six led the team last year.

BET: Under 5.5 Touchdowns catches (-118)

Aug 27, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts (8) shown on the bench during the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. — Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Receptions: Over 74.5 (-112) | Under 74.5 (-112)

Pitts caught 68 passes as a rookie. That was while competing with Gage and Ridley in his first year in Arthur Smith’s offense. He returns for his sophomore season as an established option ahead of the newcomers Atlanta brought in.

The tight end caught two passes in a game five times last year. That simply doesn’t happen for the other top receiving tight ends in the NFL, like Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. More targets will mean more receptions for Pitts, especially with a lesser quarterback peppering him with targets early and often.