2022-23 NBA Championship Odds and Betting Primer
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The Warriors enter the 2022-23 NBA season as defending champions and the favorites to win yet another title.
Golden State’s odds to win yet another championship trailed the Celtics’, the team it beat in the Finals in June, for much of the offseason. Boston’s odds dropped just ahead of the Oct. 18 season opener, and now, at +600, the Warriors own the best odds to win the championship at SI Sportsbook.
The Warriors, Celtics, Bucks, Nets, Clippers and Suns make up the top tier of title contenders before there’s a dropoff. Golden State, Boston, Milwaukee and Phoenix have all been to the Finals over the last two seasons, while Los Angeles and Brooklyn’s standing is based on projection rather than demonstrated dominance.
Plenty of teams made moves throughout a busy offseason that changed their standing in the NBA hierarchy, for better or worse. Franchises eyeing the Larry O’Brien Trophy made All-Star acquisitions over the summer, while others are already looking ahead to a loaded draft lottery.
So which team will be celebrating a championship on opening night at the start of next season? Or will the Warriors go back-to-back once again?
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2022-23 NBA Championship Odds
Golden State Warriors +600
Boston Celtics +650
Milwaukee Bucks +650
Brooklyn Nets +700
Los Angeles Clippers +700
Phoenix Suns +900
Los Angeles Lakers +1400
Miami Heat +1400
Philadelphia 76ers +1400
Denver Nuggets +1600
Dallas Mavericks +2000
Memphis Grizzlies +2000
Cleveland Cavaliers +3300
Minnesota Timberwolves +3300
New Orleans Pelicans +4000
Toronto Raptors +4000
Atlanta Hawks +4500
Chicago Bulls +6000
Portland Trail Blazers +8000
New York Knicks +10000
Charlotte Hornets +15000
Detroit Pistons +25000
Utah Jazz +25000
Indiana Pacers +30000
Washington Wizards +30000
Sacramento Kings +40000
San Antonio Spurs +40000
Houston Rockets +50000
Oklahoma City Thunder +50000
Orlando Magic +50000
The Favorite: Warriors (+600)
Golden State begins its title defense with the same starting five that it leaned on during its Finals run. There was a moment a few weeks ago where it seemed like that might not be the case when Draymond Green punched Jordan Poole in practice and video of the incident leaked. Green was fined—not suspended—and will be back with the team for its ring ceremony on opening night.
Health-wise, the Warriors enter the year in a much better place than they began the 2021-22 campaign: Klay Thompson (ACL) did not make his season debut until January and James Wiseman (knee) missed his entire sophomore season. Thompson, a year removed from injury, is back in his rightful position alongside Steph Curry in the backcourt and Wiseman is part of an uber-talented Golden State second unit led by the Sixth Man of the Year-favorite in Poole.
Golden State lost Gary Payton II, one of its top perimeter defenders, in free agency from a defensive unit that was among the league’s best. Somewhat surprisingly, the Warriors’ regular-season offense was about league average, though they proved they can still turn it up come playoff time. Different iterations of this team have hung banners throughout its dynastic run, but the core and coach have remained consistent throughout and that’s the case again this year.
Value Bet: 76ers (+1400)
The 76ers have the top-end talent and depth to get out of the East. Tyrese Maxey emerged as a third star last season alongside back-to-back MVP runner up Joel Embiid and James Harden, who was acquired midseason. The 76ers plucked P.J. Tucker away from one of their primary competitors in the conference, traded for De’Anthony Melton and added Montrezl Harrell to back up Embiid. It was the kind of offseason that could push a perennial playoff team over the top.
After the All-Star break, which coincided with Harden’s arrival, Philadelphia was an improved team on offense and defense. Few teams shot the ball from outside as well as the 76ers last season, though they were a relatively low-volume shooting team that operated at one of the NBA’s slowest paces. That’s not surprising for a team that runs its offense through methodical players like Harden and Embiid, though a greater reliance on Maxey could see the team push the ball a bit more.
Philadelphia has had no issue racking up regular season wins during its current stretch of six consecutive playoff appearances. And the 76ers have experienced mild success once in the postseason—they were bounced in the first round once, though they have no conference finals appearances to show for. Breaking through and winning the Finals is a big leap from a second-round exit, but it’s one that’s within reach with the team that Daryl Morey assembled for Doc Rivers.
Longshot: Grizzlies (+2000)
The Grizzlies went from a plucky play-in team to having the second-best record in the NBA seemingly overnight. The ascension of Ja Morant from star to superstar in his third year jumpstarted that team-wide improvement, and what coach Taylor Jenkins was able to do when his point guard missed time during the regular season showed that this team has much more to it than Morant.
The roster is full of capable defenders who, true to the grit and grind Grizzlies, don’t mind doing the dirty work. That’s how this team ended up leading the league in rebounds, blocked shots and steals per game. Even though Jaren Jackson Jr. (foot) is sidelined to start the season, Memphis will be just fine with Steven Adams, Brandon Clarke and Santi Aldama in the frontcourt, Desmond Bane and Dillon Brooks on the wings and Tyus Jones backing up Morant.
Other than the Celtics, the Grizzlies gave the Warriors the best fight in the playoffs. Memphis didn’t make any massive offseason moves aimed at getting past Golden State. They lost Kyle Anderson but otherwise made a priority of locking up the players they already have in place. Memphis is built to win now and tomorrow.
BET: Bucks (+650)
As long as Giannis Antetokounmpo is in Milwaukee, this team is a Finals contender. If that sounds overly simple it’s because it is. He impacts winning on both sides of the floor like few players can. And it helps that the Bucks have a complementary roster built around the best player in the world, even if injuries will keep the ideal starting five off the floor at the start of the season.
Khris Middleton, whose absence against Boston might have swung the seven-game series, is out to start the year, along with Pat Connaughton and offseason free-agent signing Joe Ingles. Brook Lopez is healthy after he played just 13 regular-season games last year and his presence gives the Bucks the option to go big with him, Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis.
Mike Budenholzer’s squad isn’t as deep as some other contenders but that’s easier to get away with when you have Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee has one of the best offenses in basketball, proved that it could still turn things up defensively in the postseason and has championship experience from its title two years ago. Bet on the Bucks to get back to the Finals and clean up once they get there.
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