2022-23 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds and Betting Primer
The Rookie of the Year field narrowed before the season began when No. 2 pick Chet Holmgren suffered a foot injury that will cost him all of the 2022-23 season.
That left Paolo Banchero, whom the Magic selected first overall, as the runaway favorite to win it. And though the odds are in his favor, recent history is not.
The last No. 1 pick to win Rookie of the Year was Ben Simmons in 2018, and the former 76er actually did so a year after he was drafted because he missed his entire first season due to injury. Before that, Karl-Anthony Towns went 1.01 in 2016 and earned the hardware with all the pressure that comes with being the top pick. Since then, the winners have been Malcolm Brogdon (pick No. 36), Luka Doncic (3), Ja Morant (2), LaMelo Ball (3) and Scottie Barnes (4).
It’s still a blue blood award—only two winners in the last decade (Brogdon and Michael-Carter Williams) were selected outside of the top 10. But the sharp odds drop off from Banchero to his fellow top-five picks in Jaden Ivey, Keegan Murray and Jabari Smith is worth noting given the recent award trends.
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2022-23 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds
Paolo Banchero +200
Jaden Ivey +450
Keegan Murray +450
Jabari Smith +500
Bennedict Mathurin +1000
Shaedon Sharpe +3600
Jalen Williams +3600
Ochai Agbaji +3600
Dyson Daniels +4000
The Favorite: Paolo Banchero, Magic (+200)
Banchero had a decorated one-and-done year at Duke, complete with a run to the Final Four, second-team All-American honors and the ACC Rookie of the Year award. He led a Blue Devils team that produced three other first-rounders in 2022 alone in scoring (17.2) and rebounding (7.8). And Banchero, at 6’10”, also showed his chops as a playmaker and a shooter, shooting nearly 34% from deep.
Orlando lacks a true point guard and lead scorer and while the selection of Banchero doesn’t necessarily help with the first hole, he can facilitate from the forward spot and profiles as the lead scorer on a very young team that’s ripe with lottery talent. Expectations for the Magic are in the gutter—they have the second-lowest projected win total in the East (26.5) and landed Banchero with the No. 1 pick after a 22-60 season. He provides an immediate upgrade to an offense that averaged 104.2 PPG a season ago.
The last three ROY winners have pushed their teams to a play-in or playoff appearance. Banchero has his work cut out for him in that regard, but he has the profile to make an overwhelming statistical case even if that doesn’t immediately translate to team success. Banchero is one of a handful of first-year pros who are walking into a starting job, and unlike some of his counterparts who are joining teams with an established star or two, this team will go as he does.
Value Bet: Bennedict Mathurin, Pacers (+1000)
Indiana added a tough, talented scorer with the No. 6 pick in the draft. Mathurin averaged 17.7 PPG for an Arizona team that was a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and at 6’6” he has great size for a guard, evidenced by his rebounding numbers in college. He’ll begin the season behind second-year guard Chris Duarte, but Mathurin can lead the Pacers’ second unit and there’s always the possibility that Buddy Hield gets moved, which would open up a starting spot.
There’s not much to dislike about Mathurin’s game. He shot better than 38% from three in college on five attempts per game and got to the line relatively well for a guard. Mathurin was never a true floor general at Arizona, but he doesn’t need to be in Indiana with franchise cornerstone Tyrese Haliburton running the show and T.J. McConnell quarterbacking the second unit.
The Pacers project to be one of the NBA’s worst teams, which should lend itself to plenty of minutes and opportunities for Mathurin to make an outside case for ROY. He’ll really need to wow as a scorer to garner attention on a team with such low expectations, especially in a situation where he’ll have to fight to earn minutes and a starting job. Mathurin has some work to do, but his preseason appearances have been encouraging and he presents value with odds twice as long as the players taken just in front of him in the draft.
Long Shot: Jalen Duren, Pistons (+6500)
Detroit was determined to add Duren soon after it drafted Ivey with a top-five pick. The Pistons sent the Knicks a future first for the rights to the former Memphis center, which New York selected with the 13th pick, and the team also agreed to take on Kemba Walker’s contract, who was then bought out.
Duren joined a franchise with a crowded frontcourt that has thinned out considerably as opening night approaches. Marvin Bagley suffered a knee injury in preseason and will miss the start of the year and Nerlens Noel is still dealing with a foot injury. That leaves third-year pro Isaiah Stewart and Duren as coach Dwane Casey’s lone options at center to start the season.
In one season at Memphis, Duren was a beast on the boards. He grabbed 8.1 per game for the Tigers (three offensive), swatted 2.1 shots per game and added 12 PPG on nearly 60% shooting. It will be an uphill battle to earn consistent minutes in a veteran-laden frontcourt once the rest of the centers are healthy, but the Pistons aren’t going anywhere this season and Casey is best suited seeing what he has in Duren than relying on veterans to eat up minutes.
Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
BET: Keegan Murray, Kings (+450)
Sacramento took Murray fourth overall in an obvious win-now move. The 22-year-old rookie had a phenomenal sophomore season at Iowa as he was one of the top scorers in the nation with a 23.4 PPG average and he added 8.7 rebounds, nearly two blocks and over a steal per game. Though Murray was a high-volume player, he was also incredibly efficient with career shooting averages of 54.3% from the field, 37.3% from three and 74.9% from the stripe.
The downside for Murray is that unlike some of the other top rookies, he’s not the first or even the second option for Sacramento, which has De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis in place already. Murray’s path to ROY honors will look something along the lines of Barnes’, who won the award by filling up the stat sheet on a playoff-bound squad despite two All-Stars in front of him. And it’s hard to overstate the added narrative angle of Murray’s arrival contributing to the Kings’ finally ending their playoff drought, if they indeed break through this season.
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