NBA on Christmas: Best Bets, Odds and Picks for Bucks vs. Celtics

Two of the Eastern Conference's best teams square off on Christmas with the Celtics listed as home favorites over the Bucks.

Depending how the holiday weekend goes, first place in the Eastern Conference might shift hands, again.

The second-place Celtics host the first-place Bucks at TD Garden on Christmas, in the first of two playoff rematches on December 25th. Boston got past Milwaukee in an epic, seven-game series last season to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals and, eventually, the NBA Finals.

The C’s got off to a ferocious, 21–5 start this year but have slowed down considerably with just one win over their last six games, including three losses in a row heading into a Friday night matchup with the Timberwolves. Marcus Smart (illness) is probable and center Robert Williams III (illness), who just made his return last week, is day-to-day.

The Bucks haven’t had a slide like Boston’s all season, though they are 3–3 over their last six. Khris Middelton (knee) is doubtful and Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) is probable against the Nets on Friday.

Bucks vs. Celtics Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

Time: 5 p.m. ET (ABC, ESPN)

Spread: Bucks +4.5 (-118) | Celtics -4.5 (+100)

Moneyline: Bucks (+145) | Celtics (-175)

Total: 225.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)

Place your bets on SI Sportsbook

Milwaukee Bucks Offense and Defense Stats

Milwaukee is not the top seed in the East because of its awesome offense—it ranks 18th in offensive rating. It stands atop the conference due to its No. 3 defense and the stellar play of Antetokounmpo, who’s making a case for his third MVP trophy. Brook Lopez, Jrue Holiday, Bobby Portis and Antetokounmpo make for a tough lineup to score on and their size grants them a rebounding advantage in most matchups.

Antetokounmpo is third in the league in scoring (31.6 ppg) and fifth in rebounding (11.2 rpg) and he has demonstrated success against a better version of Boston’s defense with Williams fully incorporated. He had three 40-plus-point games in the postseason series and finished with series averages of 33.9 points and 14.7 rebounds.

It’s been a rough go for Middleton since his return from injury, which is why what Lopez, Grayson Allen and Bobby Portis add as complementary offensive pieces matters so much for coach Mike Budenholzer. Having multiple scoring threats makes the Bucks that much more unstoppable compared to a singular force in Antetokounmpo.

David Butler II/USA TODAY Sports

Boston Celtics Offense and Defense Stats

So much has been made of Boston’s recent struggles compared to their early season success. Maybe the Celtics aren’t going to post the best offensive rating of all time—they slipped slightly from the top spot to No. 2 behind the Suns. Their defense is up to No. 7 and Jayson Tatum is still playing like an MVP, even if his career year isn’t paired with a 60-win season.

Williams’ return is important for Boston to be able to bang with the NBA’s best All-Star bigs, such as Antetokounmpo. He takes the pressure off Al Horford and Grant Williams, who would be tasked to do so in this matchup if it weren’t for his timely return.

For as good as the Bucks are on defense, the leaps taken this season by Tatum and Jaylen Brown mean the Celtics can be competitive in any contest, and there’s plenty of depth beyond the top two with Malcolm Brogdon and Marcus Smart down the roster.

Bucks vs. Celtics Betting Prediction and Analysis:

This profiles to be the best game of the day with both teams more or less healthy and two MVP candidates going head-to-head. It should be a close contest, which is why the pick is Milwaukee to cover on the road.

Boston is the most vulnerable it’s been all season and it can calm the waters with a win in the first of three regular-season meetings. I’m not sure they get it, though, and I’m not betting against Antetokoumpo, especially after he scored 36 to lead his team to a tight win against the C’s a year ago on this very same stage.

BET: Bucks +4.5 (-118), Over 231.5 (-110)

Bucks Betting Record and Stats

Straight-Up Record: 22–9

Against The Spread Record: 17–12–2

Over/Under Record: 16–15

Points Per Game (Rank): 112.9 (17)

Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 108.9 (4)

Celtics Betting Record and Stats

Straight-Up Record: 22–10

Against The Spread Record: 18–14

Over/Under Record: 15–15–2

Points Per Game (Rank): 118.0 (2)

Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 112.3 (13)

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