College Football Playoff Predictions and Best Bets: Alabama vs. Michigan in the Rose Bowl
The Alabama Crimson Tide are a staple of the College Football Playoff. Coach Nick Saban has led his team to the final four eight times in its 10-year history. The Michigan Wolverines are making their third consecutive appearance in the postseason tournament after a controversy-ridden campaign. But so far, coach John Harbaugh’s team is winless on this stage.
This is the second head-to-head meeting between Saban and Harbaugh: Alabama bested Michigan 35–20 in the Citrus Bowl at the end of the 2019 season. This game has much bigger stakes as a dangerous Crimson Tide team poses a serious threat to the undefeated Wolverines, who have lost their last six bowl games.
No. 4 Alabama (12–1) ended Georgia’s 29-game win streak in the SEC Championship game with a gutsy 27–24 win that was enough to edge out undefeated Florida State for the final playoff spot in the eyes of the committee. Texas handed the Tide their lone loss earlier in the year, 34–24 in Tuscaloosa. No. 1 Michigan (13–0) beat Ohio State 30–24 at home in the regular-season finale with Harbaugh suspended and then shut out Iowa 26–0 to capture the Big Ten title and the top seed in the playoff.
Rose Bowl CFP Semifinal Odds: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Michigan
Spread: Alabama +1.5 (-110) | Michigan -1.5 (-118)
Moneyline: ALA (+105) | MICH (-133)
Total: 44.5 – Over (-118) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Monday, Jan. 1 | 5 p.m. ET | ESPN
Location: Rose Bowl | Pasadena, CA
Best Bet: Alabama +1.5 (-110)
Mickey Welsh/Montgomery Advertiser/USA TODAY Network
Jalen Milroe’s ascent is at the heart of Alabama’s 11-game winning streak. He was benched for a near-loss to USF the week after the loss to the Longhorns. Since his return against Ole Miss, he’s improved with each week. Milroe is always a threat to take off and run as he leads the team with 12 rushing touchdowns and his improvement as a passer was on display when he tossed the game-winning touchdown to Isiah Bond in the back of the endzone to beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
Bond has been Milroe’s favorite target but it’s Jermaine Burton who leads the team in receiving yards and touchdowns. The big-play threat averages better than 22 yards per catch. The Tide’s top rusher Jase McLellan missed the SEC Championship game and is questionable for the semifinals. If he misses, Roydell Williams, who had 64 yards and a score against UGA, will get the start.
Alabama has standout defensive stars up front with edge Dallas Turner, who leads the team with 9.5 sacks, and Kool-Aid McKinstry in the secondary. Opponents have a tough time passing or running against the Tide and few teams get to opposing quarterbacks at a higher rate.
Michigan might not log as many sacks as Alabama, but pound for pound, its defensive numbers are the best in the country. The Wolverines allow an FBS-low 9.5 points per game and 239.7 total yards per game, the second-fewest nationally. Ohio State and Maryland were the only two teams that broke 20 points on this unit, which also pitched two shutouts and held seven teams to single digits.
The defense might overshadow the offense, but J.J. McCarthy is in charge of an efficient unit that’s good for 36.7 points on average. Running back Blake Corum has a nose for the end zone as he leads the country with 24 rushing touchdowns to go along with his 1,028 rushing yards. McCarthy does a good job of minimizing turnovers and Michigan only has seven this season, but late in the year his raw numbers have dropped as the offense has become more run heavy.
If the Wolverines don’t get whatever they want on the ground against ’Bama, McCarthy will be forced to throw. He has a capable group of pass-catchers at his disposal, led by Roman Wilson and his team-leading 11 touchdown grabs. McCarthy finished with 343 passing yards in the semifinal loss to TCU a season ago but he also threw two costly pick-sixes.
This is a rare opportunity to back Saban as an underdog, which has been profitable in the past — including last time out against Georgia. The Crimson Tide are 9–4 against the number this year and 1–0 straight up as an underdog. Michigan is a more pedestrian 7–5–1. Both teams have played some tight games as of late and this one could come down to a last-second field goal. In that event, take the points.
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