2026 WM Phoenix Open Odds: Betting a Hole in One on the Famous 16th Hole

The WM Phoenix Open is this week, home to one of the most iconic holes in golf: the 16th at TPC Scottsdale.

Since the tournament built stadium seating around the hole and welcomed a party-like atmosphere, it has become a must-watch par-3. Many players will pump up the crowd before they hit their tee shot, and the fans explode in cheers when anyone sticks it close.

Every fan is also hoping for a hole in one. Let’s take a look at the odds for an ace to take place this year, and then we’ll break down the history of holes in one and I’ll give you my prediction.

WM Phoenix Open hole in one odds

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Will there be a hole in one at the WM Phoenix Open?

Yes -125
No +100

Will there be a hole in one on the 16th hole at the WM Phoenix Open?

Yes +250
No -325

BetMGM has the odds of a hole in one taking place at this year's WM Phoenix Open at -125, an implied probability of 55.56%, and the odds of a hole in one on the 16th hole at +250, an implied probability of 28.57%.

While that bet may be tempting, there’s a strong argument to be made that it has terrible value. Believe it or not, there have only been six holes in one on the 16th hole since 2000, and two were in the same year.

Emiliano Grillo (2025)
Sam Ryder (2022)
Carlos Ortiz (2022)
Francesco Molinari (2015)
Jarrod Lyle (2011)
Mike Sposa (2002)

That means there has been a hole in one on the 16th hole in 20% of the tournaments since 2000, but the odds indicate there's an implied probability of 28.57%. That tells me that if you're willing to lay the juice, the “no” at -325 is the way to go.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!